Introduction
Mustang sold 780 in November which is down 31.5% on the year to date numbers for last year but sales have been improving over the last two months.

Commodore sales for the ‘new’ model don’t seem to be holding up too well with only 701 units sold (1,1134 less than in 2017) and the Aurion has faded away leaving the large car segment with just a 1.04% share of the market in November and it has shed 56.76% (15,001 units) in volume compared to 2017.

For the year to date the total passenger market is also down by 2.43% or 24,931 units, marking what looks like being the first annual drop in sales since 2013.

The top sellers for this month see some significant changes. The Toyota Corolla (2,659) retained the overall lead ahead of the Hyundai i30 (2,378) up a place in 2^nd with the Mazda 3 (2,342) down a place in 3^rd and the Mazda CX-5 (1,998) still in to 4^th. The Nissan XTrail (1,942) regained two of the three places lost last month to be 5^th; the Toyota RAV 4 (1,936) also gained two places to 6^thas did the Hyundai Tucson (1,623) in 7^th; the Toyota Prado (1,464) gained back three places to be 8^th; the Subaru Forester (1,406) dropped four places to 9^th and the VW Golf (1,372) continued to round out the Top Ten. The Mitsubishi ASX dropped out of the Top 10.

If we were to include the 4x4 Utes in the listing, then the Toyota Hilux is in 1^st place, Ford Ranger comes in at 2^nd overall; the Mitsubishi Triton is 6^th and the Holden Colorado takes 20^th place. No Ford models made it inside the Top 25; sixteen of the Top 25 come from the one of the SUV categories and the top three all come from the Small Passenger segment.





The top selling passenger vehicle sales are shown below:



.. and the same chart with the 4x4 Utes included.:



The chart below looks at the large segment slide in comparison to the Light (Fiesta), Small (Focus) and Medium (Mondeo) segments during the last ten years – from a dominant position to almost at the bottom.



Ute 4x2
The Falcon Ute is gone now and won’t be included in future charts except where historically appropriate. Ranger sales were good with 446 sold during the month, 23 more than the same time last year.

The Ford Ranger (down 10.2%) remained in 3^rd place this month behind the Toyota Hilux (1,002) and Isuzu Ute D-Max (487) but in front of the Nissan Navara (334 and +1) and Mazda BT-50 (331 and -1).

For 2018 YTD the segment is now down 9.48% (3,648 units) although it held a bigger 3.49% share of the market.



4x4 Utes
The 4x4 Utes held an improved (by almost a full point) 17.71% of the total market during the month and their segment sales are now up 6.3% (9,405) for the year. Most of the major contenders have made gains compared to the same period last year – Triton (+12.2%), Hilux (+10.7%) and D-Max (+3.3%) with only the Holden Colorado (-9.4%) and Nissan Navara (-1.9%) taking a hit.

The Toyota Hilux (3,669) retained the segment lead from the Ford Ranger (3,023) while the Mitsubishi Triton (2,200) remained in 3^rd, the Holden Colorado (1,175) remained in 4^th and the Nissan Navara (1,162) gained a spot to 5^th.



Given the movement in the 4x4 and 4x2 Ute segments, we are going to include the previous quarterly analysis of how they are performing year against year in this report and report on it monthly instead. The only entrants included are those with both a 4x2 and 4x4 entrant so that does leave some out but nothing with any significant volume. For the YTD, the Hilux has outsold the Ranger by 9,055 of which 7,374 are in the 4x2 segment.





and a closer look at the 4x4 Utes only…



The final chart depicts the combined Holden and Ford sales for 4x2 Utes as a percentage share. This looks at the period from January 2012 when they both had two entries in the market place and as the Ranger continues, this chart will remain.



Prestige Segment
The Caprice looks to be finished with no sales and the luxury segment is down 20.27% overall. Chrysler’s 300/C managed 12 sold in November to be down 3.2% on this time last year. With no Ford entrant in the category we no longer graph this category.

Fiesta / Light Segment
The Hyundai Accent (1,354) retained the segment lead with the Mazda 2 (841) up a place in 2^nd and the Toyota Yaris (711) down place in 3^rd. The rest of the top group consists of:
Holden Barina (590) up three places in 4^th;
VW Polo (564) down a place in 5^th;
Kia Rio (501) down a place in 6^th;
Honda Jazz (462) up a place in 7^th;
Suzuki Swift (444) down two places in 8^th; and

Ford Fiesta (1) is still in 15^th and last and about to disappear completely. A sad end for a model (then called Festiva) that was selling 2,500 a month back in 1999.

This segment held a bigger 7.3% of the total market in November but is down compared to 2017 by 8.12% (6,414 units). Not surprisingly, it’s downward results for about half the contenders in the segment with the Toyota Yaris down 14.5%, Mazda 2 down 10.9%, Fiesta down 63.6% and VW Polo down 16.6%. Holden Barina +10.7% and Suzuki Swift +26.6% are the biggest winners.

Please note we have shortened the time scale on some of the segment graphs as they were getting too difficult to read over the longer term.




Focus / Small Segment
The month saw Focus drop to 13^th place with 53 sold. The segment lead was retained by the Toyota Corolla (2,659) with the Hyundai i30 (2,378) up a place in 2^nd and the Mazda 3 (2,342) down a place in 3^rd. The remainder of the Top ten are:
VW Golf (1,372) steady in 4^th;
Kia Cerato (1,351) steady in 5^th;
Holden Astra (1,000) steady in 6^th;Honda Civic (969) steady in 7^th;
Subaru Impreza (582) steady in 8^th;
Mitsubishi Lancer (511) steady in 9^th; and
Hyundai Elantra (231) still in 10^th place.

For the year to date, Corolla is down 4.9%, the Hyundai i30 is down 3.3%, Mazda 3 is down 3.7%, the Focus down by 31.2% andthe Subaru Impreza down 22.0%. On the winning side, only the VW Golf is up (by 7.0%).

The segment held a lower market share of 16.98% in November and it is down overall by 8.02% (16,097 units) compared to 2017.





Mondeo / Medium Segment
In November, 126 Ford Mondeos were sold and it narrowly remained in 3^rd place. The segment lead was retained by the Toyota Camry which sold 1,295 with the Mazda 6 (325) still in 2^nd; the Volkswagen Passat (123) still in 4^th and the Skoda Ocatvia (117) steady in 5^th. If they were counted on size and not price the C-Class (173) and BMW 3-Series (226) would have been in the top five.

Percentage wise, there are no winners compared to 2017 with the Subaru Liberty (-19.4%), Mondeo (-35.0%) and Honda Accord (-46.8%) the biggest losers and even the perennial Camry has dropped 37.6%.

The segment held a slightly lower 2.57% of the market in November and has lost volume by 31.03% compared with 2017 – a drop of 12,009 sales and it really is rapidly becoming as irrelevant a segment to contend in as the large segment has been for some years.





Ecosport / Light SUV Segment
During November, the Ford Ecosport sold 122 units and it remained in 12^th place with the rest of the order being:
Nissan Qashqai (1,343) up 4 places to take the segment lead;
Mazda CX-3 (1,302) steady in 2^nd;
Mitsubishi ASX (1,261) down two place to 3^rd;
Hyundai Kona (1,001) down a place in 4^th;
Subaru XV (927) down a place to 5^th;
Honda HR-V (906) up a place in 6^th; and
Toyota CH-R (866) down a place to 7^th;

Please note that we have realigned our stats with the VFACTs categories now that there is a Ford entrant in this segment.

Mostly losers in this segment; the Nissan Juke is down 50.5%, Holden Trax down 26.6% and the Ecosport down by 11.4%. On the other side, Subaru XV is up 36.2% and the Honda HR-V up 4.0%.

The segment held a much smaller 10.87% of the market in November but it is up 20.35% (19,310) compared to 2017.





Escape / Compact SUV Segment
During November, the Escape sold 343 units and it remained in 11^th place with the top positions held by:
Mazda CX-5 (1,998) retaining the segment lead;
Nissan X-Trail (1,942) up a place to 2^nd;
Toyota RAV4 (1,936) up two place in 3^rd;
Hyundai Tucson (1,623) up two places in 4^th;
Subaru Forester (1,406) down three places to 5^th;
Kia Sportage (1,160) up a place in 6^th;
Honda CR-V (1,159) up a place in 7^th; and
Mitsubishi Outlander (999) down four places to 8^th.

Most contenders are now up in volume for the YTD with only the Ford Escape down 11.3%, Hyundai Tuscon down 18.6%, Subaru Forester down 6.7% and the Mitsubishi Outlander down 5.4%. Honda CR-V is up 76.6%, Toyota RAV4 up 6.1% and Nissan X-Trail up 13.5%.

The segment held a slightly lower 16.24% of the market in November and it is up 6.13% (9,261 units) compared to 2017.

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Everest / Medium SUV Segment
The segment lead was retained by the Toyota Prado (1,464) ahead of the Toyotas Kluger (1,174) in 2^nd with the Mitsubishi Pajero + Sport (1,021) steady in 3^rd. The rest of the Top 10:

Isuzu Ute MU-X (800) up two places to 4^th;
Hyundai Santa Fe (704) steady in 5^th;
Mazda CX-9 (700) up a place in 6^th;
Subaru Outback (687) down three places to 7^th;
Ford Everest (472) up a place in 8^th;
Holden Captiva (458) up two places in 9^th; and
Nissan Pathfinder (364) up a place in 10^th.

Prado (+18.8%), Kluger (+19.1%) and Everest (+18.0%) are all better than last year with only the Captiva (-45.8%), Pajero + Sport (-9.6%), Jeep Grand Cherokee (-23.0%) and Hyundai Santa Fe (-6.5%) showing any substantial drop. The segment held an improved 11.38% of the market in November and has now gained volume by 0.6% for the year to date – an increase of 632 sales.

The second chart depicts sales for the Territory and Everest over the entire production life.





Market Share Analysis
For an easy look at the share held by each market segment, we have included a set of graphs that display this for quick reference – the first looks at the percentage market share for the current month while the second compares the percentage numbers for the current month for the last three years where is easy to see quickly which segments have gained and which have lost. We have also added a look at the segment movements in raw numbers terms for the month YTD. This shows the actual unit numbers that have been gained or lost within each segment for the year to date.







Total Market
Toyota retained the passenger market leadership in November with 18,004 passenger segment sales giving them a comfortable lead over Mazda (8,905); Hyundai (7,869) in 3^rd; Mitsubishi (6,953) in 4^th; Ford (5,482) 5^th; Nissan (5,330) up three places in 6^th; Holden (5,121) down a place in 7^th; VW (4,713) down a place in 8^th and Kia (4,644) also down a place to 9^th.

In percentage terms Ford is down 12.0% on 2017, Mazda down 3.8% and Holden are down 28.4%. On the positive side, Mitsubishi is up 8.4%, Kia is up 7.6% and Toyota is up 0.6%.



The chart below looks at the same data but over a shorter time frame so that movements are a little easier to detect.



We have been taking a look at the 15+-year history of the four manufacturers (Ford, Holden, Mazda and Toyota) from 2000 to the current time. These figures are based on year to date sales and as well as making the recent gain in the overall market apparent they also clearly depict how Toyota has pulled away from everyone since 2003; Mazda’s gain (and overtaking) of Ford in the 3^rd to 5^th place battle and the increasing penetration of both Nissan and Hyundai.



The next set of charts look at the trends within each segment and draws some comparisons between various battles within them.


Please note that these graphs are based on the percentage share of the total market and as the market has been growing each year for the last decade or so (with the exception of 2009) the actual gains or losses are significantly greater than the gradual changes shown in the graph.

First up is a look at the four passenger segments where we can clearly see the continued slide in the large car segment, the strength of the dominant small segment and the rise in the light segment.



.. and a more targeted look at three critical segments over a shorter time frame:



Second is the percentage share held by each segment during the last five years – worth noting is the impact of the SUV realignment and the continued, if somewhat inconsistent, strength of the small segment.



Third is a closer look at the sport, prestige and luxury segments over the same time frame. While some of the vehicles that get placed in these categories defy logic they are the segments that are a good indicator of the general economic performance in Australia and they had all trended slightly downward but appear to have rallied so far this year.



Fourth is a look at the SUV segments. These segments had been growing quite rapidly and most of that growth had been in the compact and medium sized vehicles but after the realignment this year the medium segment now has the upper hand over the compact segment most of the time although it is inconsistent. We have included the new segment for completeness.



To see who the winners and the losers are so far this year here is a comparison of the various manufacturers on a YTD basis when compared to last year. For the purpose of the exercise we have obviously picked the (modern) big four; Toyota, Holden, Mazda and Ford but also added a couple of others that have been big movers in recent times by way of comparison. The first chart looks at the raw numbers while the second looks at the percentage variation.





Drilling down on the winners and losers a bit more shows some interesting changes amongst both manufacturers and individual models.

The biggest overall improver is Honda, gaining 5,594 sales which represent a 13.4% improvement on 2017. Very few others actually have gained share, with a better than 10% improvement only including MG (395%), LDV (+145%), Great Wall (+90.8%), Ferrari (+24.7%) and Alfa Romeo (+22.3%) mostly based on very low volumes. Skoda (+9.5%) made good gains based on decent volume.

The biggest overall loser is Holden, down 28.4% and 22,198 sales, of which 12,788 are lost Commodore sales. Other losers to shed more than 10% include Fiat (-42.5%), Land Rover (-20.5%) and Ford lost 12.0%.

In terms of individual models, the Honda CR-V (6,399) has gained the most sales ahead of the Subaru XV (3,821), Toyota CH-R (3,011) and Toyota Hilux 4x4 (3,434).

The biggest losing models (for those still in production) include Subaru Impreza (-2,436), Ford Mustang (-2,741), Mercedes C-Class (-3,417), Holden Captiva (-4,013), Hyundai Tucson (-4,188), and Toyota Camry (-8,422).

Next up is a look at some individual models – naturally all of the current Ford range with any real volume has been included but also the segment leaders and the red corner competition along with anything else that seemed of interest.



.. and a (newer) comparison of all the non-Falcon based Ford models. Please note that the Mustang is now included.



State of Origin
We also take a quick look at the sales by State. The data is for the year to date and looks at the years from 2007 to 2018. All of the States gained volume for the year to date except NSW which is down 5.7%, SA -2.0%, ACT -1.2, Victoria -0.1% and the NT down 4.4%. Tasmania is the biggest winner with 5.9% growth. All except WA (-20.5%) and Northern Territory (-3.0%) have improved compared to ten years ago with Victoria (+20.1%) the biggest improver over that period.

The first chart looks at the raw sales numbers over the period while the second compares the percentage change between 2017 and 2018.





Country of Origin
Finally, a little look at the origin of our vehicles - not really a concern now that we know the future of our automotive industry but it does at least show where some of the production off shore originates.

The pie chart shows the major origins for vehicles sold in the Australian market on a YTD basis (along with a comparison from 2012) while the second chart compares those figures to the previous years and the final chart shows a YTD total (by year) for all imports compared to locally produced.









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