Are "classic" car prices sustainable

[dmat2391]

Had the hits of nostalgia and hit the net for prices for monaros and mustangs. Prices ranged from 25 000 to 55 000. What peaple are willing to pay now is not what i'm asking ( I'm willing to go the middle ground for instance).
point is it's part of my past so I have the "desire" and the means
question is will over the long term will the prices be sustained as gen X is replaced by gen y "prius, camry" and beyond (.
surely the current poor showing for the fit for use (read.... damb good value, quality and fun) local stuff from the red and blue sides is an indicator of the future disinterest of the lot that follow us.
ps don't get me wrong I have 2 brothers who are gen y and car nuts but well their friends?..............

[P6LTD351]

In the long term? No, they will not be sustainable, for reasons you have already mentioned.

[Jallopy]

I believe they will be.
Look at who owns some of these average priced muscle cars it is the young uns... rebuilding and or driving their dream cars (V8 Falcons, Monaros Valiants etc)

[302 XC]

Its all relevant, supply Vs demand ....
The early stuff always was there,but its only of late that many want,or desire those that were once given away
The market always dictates what things sell for, the days of finding HK,HT,HG monaros less running gear for under a grand is a thing of long ago,just as falcon coupes for similar money

Everything old is now new again, years ago couldn't give Atari game consoles away with a box full of cartridge games, try finding one now,let alone score one for under $500
I grew up around arcade machines,used to wag school to play them , the old arcade machines are worth more 2nd hand than a new WII system
Supply and demand

[mr smith]

They are slowly coming down and there will be changes. Just like period housing 5-10 years ago Victorian renos were the rage, now mid century modern is the go. I have said many times here I will buy a nice driver XR GT for $35 - $40K. If they never get that low no big deal, life will go on, if they do I will buy one. Easy.

[P6LTD351]

Originally Posted by 302 XC

Its all relevant, supply Vs demand ....
The early stuff always was there,but its only of late that many want,or desire those that were once given away
The market always dictates what things sell for, the days of finding HK,HT,HG monaros less running gear for under a grand is a thing of long ago,just as falcon coupes for similar money

Everything old is now new again, years ago couldn't give Atari game consoles away with a box full of cartridge games, try finding one now,let alone score one for under $500
I grew up around arcade machines,used to wag school to play them , the old arcade machines are worth more 2nd hand than a new WII system
Supply and demand

All good points you make, however, there is only a window of time for each era where it's value hits a peak due to demand, then tapers off. Those Ataris you speak of are classic to those that grew up with them. Those people will pay high prices for a mint one. Just like those who grew up with a Nintendo 64 will pay big bucks in 10 - 15 years time. Classic cars have hit their peak. They are on the way down.

[Ford17]

Just adding a little to what has already been said.

I think to some extent the market will be based on what someone, who is now in a position to afford what was their dream car when they were younger, but could not afford at that time.

For example, for 'Generation X' growing up, they might have dreamed of an XY GTHO, an XB GT, Brocky, etc.; and now they've hit their 40's and cashflow has eased up a little, are in the market for such a car. Many of them together will create the supply side of the equation.

For the previous 'Baby Boomer' generation, the same situation appeared to arise in relation to MG's, MKII Jaguars, and other cars that filled the pages of 'Unique Cars' back in the 1980's.

Presumably, generations 'Y' & 'Z' will do the same thing for more recent rare and performance cars, whatever they may/will be.

[LG17]

Originally Posted by Forda

Just adding a little to what has already been said.

I think to some extent the market will be based on what someone, who is now in a position to afford what was their dream car when they were younger, but could not afford at that time.

For example, for 'Generation X' growing up, they might have dreamed of an XY GTHO, an XB GT, Brocky, etc.; and now they've hit their 40's and cashflow has eased up a little, are in the market for such a car. Many of them together will create the supply side of the equation.

For the previous 'Baby Boomer' generation, the same situation appeared to arise in relation to MG's, MKII Jaguars, and other cars that filled the pages of 'Unique Cars' back in the 1980's.

Presumably, generations 'Y' & 'Z' will do the same thing for more recent rare and performance cars, whatever they may/will be.

Here's the thing though - which cars of this era are presenting themselves as candidates for the "must haves" later on?
They're all so similar in styling that's it can be quite difficult to figure out just what is what!

[P6LTD351]

[QUOTE=Forda;4738318]Just adding a little to what has already been said.

I think to some extent the market will be based on what someone, who is now in a position to afford what was their dream car when they were younger, but could not afford at that time.

For example, for 'Generation X' growing up, they might have dreamed of an XY GTHO, an XB GT, Brocky, etc.; and now they've hit their 40's and cashflow has eased up a little, are in the market for such a car. Many of them together will create the supply side of the equation.

For the previous 'Baby Boomer' generation, the same situation appeared to arise in relation to MG's, MKII Jaguars, and other cars that filled the pages of 'Unique Cars' back in the 1980's.

Presumably, generations 'Y' & 'Z' will do the same thing for more recent rare and performance cars, whatever they may/will be.[/]

Spot on. That's the 'window' I was talking about. You explained it beautifully.

[Ford17]

Originally Posted by LG17

Here's the thing though - which cars of this era are presenting themselves as candidates for the "must haves" later on?
They're all so similar in styling that's it can be quite difficult to figure out just what is what!

That's the $64,000 question I guess.

What could you buy today, for say $15k, and re-sell in 20 years' time for $100K+ ?

It's hard to say really; possibly something like an EVOVIII comes to mind, but being a soothsayer isn't the easiest job to do!

[Ford17]

Originally Posted by eb2monty

Spot on. That's the 'window' I was talking about. You explained it beautifully.

Thank you.
It's something I think about a little bit from time to time as well.

It seems trends seem to come and go.
It's always hard to pick the next one; and then again, you find nobody really predicted the prior one either.

[zoesgift]

im not sure it matters whether the prices are sustainable does it? irrespective of whether you are the buyer or the seller a car will fetch a price deemed by the market. there are porky pies told about the selling price of cars at the best of times,from the sellers and the purchasers, and not all cars hit the open market. my point is this is a hobby for most of us so if you are passionate enough and search hard enough you generally will find what you are looking for to enjoy your hobby, meet different people with similar type interests etc. the boom which occurred unfortunately put, from true enthusiasts, the cars out of reach but that's well and truly gone now and there are plenty of good cars changing hands now and good cars are now returning to enthusiast type people as opposed to investors.

[mike_nofx]

Why is Gen Y "Prius, Camry and beyond", but the 70's is all "Monaro and Mustang"?

You do realise that Jap Crap existed in the 70's, just like Mustangs, GTs and GTSs exist today??

Don't blame Gen Y for the Prius or Camry... It's the baby boomers buying those pieces of garbage up.

[cs123]

Originally Posted by mike_nofx

You do realise that Jap Crap existed in the 70's, just like Mustangs, GTs and GTSs exist today??

70's Jap Crap is pulling some good coin these days too.

[neptune blue]

Originally Posted by zoesgift

im not sure it matters whether the prices are sustainable does it? irrespective of whether you are the buyer or the seller a car will fetch a price deemed by the market. there are porky pies told about the selling price of cars at the best of times,from the sellers and the purchasers, and not all cars hit the open market. my point is this is a hobby for most of us so if you are passionate enough and search hard enough you generally will find what you are looking for to enjoy your hobby, meet different people with similar type interests etc. the boom which occurred unfortunately put, from true enthusiasts, the cars out of reach but that's well and truly gone now and there are plenty of good cars changing hands now and good cars are now returning to enthusiast type people as opposed to investors.

Well spoken
If you are worried about whether the price of classic cars is sustainable I suggest you invest in property , shares , short term money market etc

I didn't buy my car because it was going to aprieciate in value I bought it because I liked it and wanted the pleasure of owning and driving a classic car

[mike_nofx]

Originally Posted by cs123

70's Jap Crap is pulling some good coin these days too.

That's true, but by the same token some of today's jap crap will be pulling big money in 40 years.

[ebxr8240]

So moral of the story is look after that Prius !!!

[Hell Cat]

Im a gen Y, ive got an xm coupe.
It won't bother me one single bit if its only worth $50 in 10-20years time... because I love it.

[Crazy Dazz]

The value of a classic car is not only supply and demand. Sure the ultra rare one’s are, but for many it is a case of comparing what is available against the cost and satisfaction of DIY.
With many older cars, the difficulty is more often finding somebody genuinely interested, rather than meeting the market price.
Will there be interest in older cars in years to come? Yes I think there will be.

[last fairlane]

Im one of the boomers
and would you believe that back in 1975
I bought a GTS 327 Monaro in a car yard for $1750
yes 17 and a half K
well after a couple of kids it wasnt practical
so I traded it on a Valiant wagon
if only Id known
now I have a Territory but also have my midlife crisis car
a 1972 Mustang convertible
so the best of both worlds
John

[Bearman]

Forda put it really well!!

To do a bit of crystal balling think about what today's 30 something year olds lusted after when they were teenagers. I'm pretty sure the majority weren't dreaming of '70's stuff.

In any case you buy something because you want it. That's it, purely for headonistic reasons. Just enjoy them before they're nanny stated off the road.

The boom of recent times won't happen again.

[HO 3]

As a baby boomer these old cars are a link to my past and to my youth and thats why I own them. What they are worth in the future will be the kids problem. The kids that are exposed and around these old buggies now will be the ones that carry the same passion into the future not the clowns that think they can buy on the cheap and flip for a profit in the future. I think threads like this are amusing and even more speculative than the actual market for classic cars is

Cheers Mick

[buickman]

[

QUOTE=last fairlane;4738627]Im one of the boomers
and would you believe that back in 1975
I bought a GTS 327 Monaro in a car yard for $1750
yes 17 and a half K
well after a couple of kids it wasnt practical
so I traded it on a Valiant wagon
if only Id known
now I have a Territory but also have my midlife crisis car
a 1972 Mustang convertible
so the best of both worlds
John

[/QUOTE]

I’m also a baby boomer that was the 2nd owner of a HT GTS 308cu with power glide and only got $1,500 trade in also a VH 360cu Charger 770 that got under $2,000 when sold. I still have an old Buick that I’ve had for over 25 years. I now have a 50th FG XR6 only thing I miss about them cars is what some people will pay for them and their less complexities if something goes wrong.A pic of the old HT back in the 80’s
[IMG][/IMG]

[79FordEsky]

Well I am currently 17 and I love old cars and always have been and will never have a jap crap or a Prius or a camry but we need to share and inspire kids to see these great machines that were made by hands not robots and also not to shelter them and give them a car with no power steering or abs or any electric things and teach them how to drive a REAL car.

[dmat2391]

my honest apology to Gen y.
what I was trying to say is that, it seems to me, most people i talk to the car has become an A to B tool and are not terribly interested in the "toy". Sure there will always be car "nuts" and the market decides.
I have to agree with some of these posts though I'll be buying (I'm in no rush) because I would like to enjoy the car and it can be the kids problem when I kick it. :-)

[Vincenzo]

Another Baby Boomer here. In 1975 I lusted after the local Muscle cars. Unfortunately, I could not afford one so I drove a 4cyl except for a brief flirt with a XT GT. Married at 27 and bought Comm V8 then a series of XR6s until now. Still dream of the Oz Muscle car (VG E34 / VH E49) but they will remain a dream till I win Lotto. Which won't be easy as I rarely buy a ticket. So, instead I jumped 16 years into the future and bought a European Classic (E24 635CSi) and will keep it.

With Australia's climate and the lack of numbers of vehicles on the ground, prices for the 635s are slowly increasing compared to US / UK prices. here is a quote from a BigCoupe forum member -

"Well, Vinny, I reckon one of your Ozzie "half decent" examples would be regarded as virtually pristine over here

I wonder how long it will be before Whingeing Poms start arriving in Oz to buy back some of the M635s which you bought from us years ago and have been preserving in your nice dry climate"

Cheers Vincenzo

[302 XC]

Originally Posted by LG17

Here's the thing though - which cars of this era are presenting themselves as candidates for the "must haves" later on?
They're all so similar in styling that's it can be quite difficult to figure out just what is what!

Whos gunna take a gamble on late model stuff that no doubt will still decline in value before it starts to rise ....
Anyone keen on a paddock full of E series, V series commodores and take a 20 year gamble ???
Many died in the wool old skool lovers don't care for values,its the feeling the car gives that no money can buy ,but theres many who would rather leave the old/older cars as a distant memory
Theres too many on the hunt for that elusive money spinner,so IF the secret got out , there would be a mad rush for the winning ticket,that in 20 years time there would be the same in every 2nd shed hit the market all at once
Look at all those buying up new muscle ,parking up on the hope they will return good coin in years, bad news is ,everyone is doin the same thing
They all be worthless ,or close to it
People are so over cautious about enjoying their cars, scared of racking up the Ks, really taking the enjoyment from driving,all to save a buck,or make a buck

[zoesgift]

Originally Posted by 79FordEsky

Well I am currently 17 and I love old cars and always have been and will never have a jap crap or a Prius or a camry but we need to share and inspire kids to see these great machines that were made by hands not robots and also not to shelter them and give them a car with no power steering or abs or any electric things and teach them how to drive a REAL car.

you my friend are the sort of person that an "old car" owner would rather sell to. its a passion and hobby. if at time of selling the car is sold for more than what was paid for it then thats a bonus, and not a necessity. my theory on the whole thing is drive the best 4 cyl or 6 cyl as your everyday car, buy it in good 2nd hand condition and maintain it. this frees up funds for the REAL car(s)

[GTPete]

If anyone thinks that in the near future that one night your going to go to bed and the next morning wake up and find the muscle car market has collapsed then your in for a shock.
There may be a slow decline starting in 20 - 30 years from now (that puts a lot of 40 - 50 year olds in their 70's plus) but at the moment and for the foreseeable future supply doesn't meet demand. We are no where near the tipping point where available cars exceed demand so the only people that should be concerned about a collapse probably haven't been born yet.
How long do people think they will live? If your 20 years old and want a muscle car and your strategy is wait out the market then my guess is you will be 50 - 60 years old before the market reaches the start of any decline.
When we get to this point the market will probably go two ways. Cream always rises to the top so the better cars, will continue to hold and may even go up in value further as their exclusivity becomes even more entrenched. The lessor/run of the mill type cars will fall and may fall hard but that time is a long way off, so there's your chance 30 years from now to grab a car that doesn't have the pedigree or desirability of the top level cars.
Funny how 30 years from now still seems like the market we have today.

[350125GO]

They will fall, but not massively so. Old cars will sustain prices simply because you can no longer get them.