Chinese Military Build Up - 60 minutes this Sunday

[GTPete]

60 minutes is running a story on China's naval build up tommorow night.

Reading various news reports over the past few years the concensus is that China's arms build up is more for offence then defence.

Given Australias mineral wealth and overall land mass we would have to be a place of interest for the Chinese. The Pacific region is an area of great concern.

Im interested in peoples thoughts on the build up, our defence capabilities and regional allies / potential aggressors.

[Bucknaked]

Why would they invade Australia. We arn't at war.

[carnige]

read the book or watch the movie "tomorrow when the war began" thats excatly what happens. another country invades australia becose of its mineral weath

[ZA-289]

Does anybody else get the feeling that it only takes one greeedy dictator to plunge the whole world into WW3 and complete and utter chaos? It oftens feels like the world is just teetering on the brink of peace....

Sometimes anyway....

[Interceptor]

considering the size of thier army, if they decide to invade anyone, the best plan would be to stick your hands in the air

[carnige]

we wouldnt be much of a push over it is too hard for any army to get to are islan with out us knowing and having are allies get hear. pluss with us still being in the cominwelth still i doute china would bother with us.

[GTPete]

I wonder if all the iron and coal we are exporting is feeding a sleeping giant, theres also a concern that the world wont be able to feed itself within a decade or so. Our farmland could become more valuable then our mineral reserves.

[HLC]

all this doomsday talk scares me haha i dont even have anything here to defend myself with even if we were invaded

[Road_Warrior]

I'll watch it, but China has been "building up" their armed forced for 15 years, there's nothing new about it. Their on again off again desire to build a working aircraft carrier is probably one of the worst kept secrets in Asia.

A report I read several years ago now that was published by the Pentagon in the 1990's suggested that China will be in a position to challenge the "strategic primacy" of the US by about 2050.

Originally Posted by carnige

read the book or watch the movie "tomorrow when the war began" thats excatly what happens. another country invades australia becose of its mineral weath

And it would have to be one of the silliest "invasion scenarios" I have ever heard of. Trust me, we will be safe for a long time.

[My poor XF]

The build up to invade Australia would make Barbarossa look like a training drill. There is no way that sort of activity could be covered up despite china's vast wealth in materials and man power.

Indonesia poses a greater threat from invasion purely as a benefit of there geographical location and there military is a joke despite the number of enlisted personnel.

The only way we would find ourselves in a conflict with china is if we sided opposite them during any war over Taiwan.

[Sapper]

In real terms, China would have to wait until the US economy collapses further before they would be in a position to invade Aus. What should be noted is that the US would have the most battle hardened military outside of the Middle East/African nations which counts for a lot when it comes time for war.

Personally, I wouldn't be getting worried about it. Fact of the matter is, occupations are bloody expensive and if China does happen to decide to invade, there's nothing we'll be able to do about it anyway. We'll be relying on the US and UN to be able to have any hope. The UN is completely spineless and the US is somewhat preoccupied elsewhere for the forseable future.

[My poor XF]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

I'll watch it, but China has been "building up" their armed forced for 15 years, there's nothing new about it. Their on again off again desire to build a working aircraft carrier is probably one of the worst kept secrets in Asia.

A report I read several years ago now that was published by the Pentagon in the 1990's suggested that China will be in a position to challenge the "strategic primacy" of the US by about 2050.

As far as im concerned the balance of power locally has already swung to the Chinese. They aren't that far from having a force projection capability to match the US (carrier battle groups).

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by carnige

we wouldnt be much of a push over it is too hard for any army to get to are islan with out us knowing and having are allies get hear. pluss with us still being in the cominwelth still i doute china would bother with us.

Except our best allies are on the other side of the world and tied up in two wars.

Though, going by the chinese steel we just got in at work, I wouldn't worry about it, they'd leave China and then all their boats will sink in the ocean.

Arguably, I reckon the best defense force in the world, is easily Israel. There is no one more battle hardened then those guys and their high tech equipment, they also mainly use US equipment.

[bng]

ahh crap

[GTPete]

Originally Posted by Sapper

In real terms, China would have to wait until the US economy collapses further before they would be in a position to invade Aus. What should be noted is that the US would have the most battle hardened military outside of the Middle East/African nations which counts for a lot when it comes time for war.

Personally, I wouldn't be getting worried about it. Fact of the matter is, occupations are bloody expensive and if China does happen to decide to invade, there's nothing we'll be able to do about it anyway. We'll be relying on the US and UN to be able to have any hope. The UN is completely spineless and the US is somewhat preoccupied elsewhere for the forseable future.

Its happened before. WW2 brought the US out of a deep depression.

[GTPete]

Originally Posted by Big Damo

Except our best allies are on the other side of the world and tied up in two wars.

Though, going by the chinese steel we just got in at work, I wouldn't worry about it, they'd leave China and then all their boats will sink in the ocean.

Arguably, I reckon the best defense force in the world, is easily Israel. There is no one more battle hardened then those guys.

A Pro Comp backed invasion force is bound to have a few mechanical issues along the way.

When you read the build up figures like 60 Submarines, long range misiles designed to take out air craft carriers it looks very aggressive.

[Jason[98.EL]]

ohh no we all better go and dig holes in our back yards

THE CHINESE ARE INVADING

[DoreSlamR]

Originally Posted by Big Damo

Except our best allies are on the other side of the world and tied up in two wars.

Though, going by the chinese steel we just got in at work, I wouldn't worry about it, they'd leave China and then all their boats will sink in the ocean.

Arguably, I reckon the best defense force in the world, is easily Israel. There is no one more battle hardened then those guys and their high tech equipment, they also mainly use US equipment.

We get just about all our steel from China.

And this is where China don't need to invade because they already have us bent over, we process the iron ore, sell it to China for a nice cheap price and then buy the steel back at a ridiculous premium.

Then there is the fact that we are a commonwealth nation so our sister nations will be here in a jiffy.

Then there is all of the USA's assets that are here, America won't let anyone get near them.

So, the chance of an invasion is very slim, not to say there won't be any sign of conflict between Australia and China, far from it and the recent (2009) defense white paper identifies China, Indonesia and North Korea as significant threats in the Asia Pacific region.

IMHO NK are the ones to watch, they have a paranoid leader with an itchy trigger finger.

[Jim Goose]

Lets look at it this way.... how many countries has China invaded in the past 200yrs?

How many countries have England invaded in the same time?

The USA?

This "scare mongering" is just one of those things which journos do.... 30yrs ago it was the USSR our "enemy".... then more recently Indonesia, then boat people, now its China!

Fact of the matter is, China has over 100million soldiers.
It does NOT have a large Naval fleet
It does NOT have long range bombers
It does not have many inflight refuelers
It has no means of shifting a large Army across an ocean

Indonesia is the same....

I have to laugh at the quote from the Naval Officer in the 60minute promo....
"We are training for a conflict"

Umm... thats what defence does... train to fight... even in peace time!
OMG news flash...

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by My poor XF

As far as im concerned the balance of power locally has already swung to the Chinese. They aren't that far from having a force projection capability to match the US (carrier battle groups).

Yet they haven't built one carrier. Politically, they have been throwing a lot of money around in places like Africa, the Solomon Islands and Indonesia, but they still lack a true blue water navy that would allow them to project force and won't for a few years yet. And then of course you have to consider the impact of having strong US forces in the region - USAF strategic bomber squadrons stationed on Guam, a permanently deployed carrier battle group in Japan, F22 fighter wings stationed in Alaska and Japan, as well as the rise of India as well adding to the mix (don't forget these guys have a carrier and nukes as well), and all of a sudden China's sure bet for regional dominance doesn't look that crash hot - for now at least.

Current projections state that the PLA-N wants to have "multiple carriers" by 2020. I believe they will have at least one on the water by then. However, having a carrier and operating it effectively for offensive operations are two different things. The USN are the masters of carrier aviation, because they have had nearly 90 years and several major wars as experience to get it right, something that China simply doesn't have.

Originally Posted by Jim Goose

Lets look at it this way.... how many countries has China invaded in the past 200yrs?

How many countries have England invaded in the same time?

The USA?

This "scare mongering" is just one of those things which journos do.... 30yrs ago it was the USSR our "enemy".... then more recently Indonesia, then boat people, now its China!

That's probably a good way of looking at it too.

[My poor XF]

Originally Posted by Jim Goose

Lets look at it this way.... how many countries has China invaded in the past 200yrs?

How many countries have England invaded in the same time?

The USA?

This "scare mongering" is just one of those things which journos do.... 30yrs ago it was the USSR our "enemy".... then more recently Indonesia, then boat people, now its China!

Fact of the matter is, China has over 100million soldiers.
It does NOT have a large Naval fleet
It does NOT have long range bombers
It does not have many inflight refuelers
It has no means of shifting a large Army across an ocean

Indonesia is the same....

I have to laugh at the quote from the Naval Officer in the 60minute promo....
"We are training for a conflict"

Umm... thats what defence does... train to fight... even in peace time!
OMG news flash...

Top post, sums it up really.

[3vXT]

Well i'm off to go smoke some crack, clean my bang sticks and watch Red Dawn.

Also, I don't think intelligent people pay attention to 60 minutes any more. Its just an hour long today tonight that screens on sunday nights and rides the coat tails of its past (very past) credibility.

[Franco Cozzo]

I'd be more worried about Iran and Israel, they're both on breaking point of about to kill each other, one of which has nuclear weapons and the other suspected of it. The USA is a good friend of Israel and is VERY SUSPECT of Iran's nuclear programme and we're a good friend with the USA, we'd be dragged into it.

I've got a friend who served in the IDF and saw duty in 2000-2004 and he said Israel has always been wanting to nuke Iran during that period and still now but the USA didn't like the idea of it.

In 1973 they also came very close to using nuclear weapons in the Yom Kippur war, they loaded up and readied, I think it was 6 nuclear capable F4s.

Israel and the surrounding middle eastern nations have always been trying to kill each other.

[pottery beige]

bring on the invasion all you scare mongers.... i'll be waiting on my couch ready to chuck empty beer tins and soggy KFC boxes at them......

[My poor XF]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Yet they haven't built one carrier. Politically, they have been throwing a lot of money around in places like Africa, the Solomon Islands and Indonesia, but they still lack a true blue water navy that would allow them to project force and won't for a few years yet. And then of course you have to consider the impact of having strong US forces in the region - USAF strategic bomber squadrons stationed on Guam, a permanently deployed carrier battle group in Japan, F22 fighter wings stationed in Alaska and Japan, as well as the rise of India as well adding to the mix (don't forget these guys have a carrier and nukes as well), and all of a sudden China's sure bet for regional dominance doesn't look that crash hot - for now at least.

Your 100% right but you need to consider economic dominance as well. I see China as the regions powerhouse and despite the US having the advantage in carrier groups and fighter squadrons i doubt they could afford sustained operations against the Chinese. The cost alone of maintaining their assets in the region would be astronomical.

[GasoLane]

Lets see.. China's main income is from exporting to the English speaking world....Start War = End of income.

And this is the program that brought us budding journo Mark Latham..who thought he was Michael Parkinson.

I stopped watching 60mins years ago, about the same time I stopped watching ACA. I see no reason to start again now

[Interceptor]

Originally Posted by Jim Goose

Lets look at it this way.... how many countries has China invaded in the past 200yrs?

Major wars and events

* 1927 to 1949: Chinese Civil War against the Kuomintang (KMT) as the Chinese Red Army.
* 1937 to 1945: World War II against Japanese occupied forces in China while harassing the Nationalist troops.
* 1949: Yangtze incident (the battle against British warships on the Yangtze river).
* 1950–1951 Invasion of Tibet 1950–1951
* 1950 to 1954: Korean War (under the official banner of the Chinese People's Volunteers, although they consisted of PLA regulars).
* 1954 to 1955: First Taiwan Strait Crisis.
* 1958: Second Taiwan Strait Crisis at Quemoy and Matsu.
* October 1962 to November 1962: Sino-Indian War.
* 1967: Chola incident with India.
* 1965 to 1970: Vietnam War (over 320,000 Chinese soldiers served in North Vietnam).
* 1969 to 1978: Sino-Soviet border conflict.
* 1974: Battle of the Paracel Islands.
* 1979: Sino-Vietnamese War.
* 1986 and 1988: Border and naval skirmishes with Vietnam.
* 1989: Tiananmen Square protests of 1989.
* 1995 to 1996: Third Taiwan Strait Crisis.
* 1997 PLA Control of Hong Kong's Military Defense

Originally Posted by Jim Goose

How many countries have England invaded in the same time?

The USA?

and look at where they are as a world power, the UK is impotent and subservient to the EU, the yanks have so many problems of thier own they wouldnt be able to fight thier way out of a bar brawl

and tell me..... in the last century, how many conflicts have the US armed forces engaged in successfully?

Originally Posted by Jim Goose

This "scare mongering" is just one of those things which journos do.... 30yrs ago it was the USSR our "enemy".... then more recently Indonesia, then boat people, now its China!

the difference being that the Chinese are more organised than the Russians ever were, the Chinese have an infinitely larger manufacturing ability and higher technology standards

Originally Posted by Jim Goose

Fact of the matter is, China has over 100million soldiers.
It does NOT have a large Naval fleet
It does NOT have long range bombers
It does not have many inflight refuelers
It has no means of shifting a large Army across an ocean

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosco
dont need a big navy or airforce to invade a country, just a means of delivering troops and thier equipment, covertly land enough troops in the right places, you can neutralise the majority of the defensive measures and take the rest at your leisure, the Sino-Indian war is an example of a simple land war with no air force/naval involvement

Originally Posted by Jim Goose

Fact of the matter is, China has over 100million soldiers.

2,250,000 approx on active duty, but the concerning bit is the 750 MILLION available for military service should the chinese government decide it needs bigger numbers..... dont need to train them much, give them a gun, tell them which end is the dangerous end and send them out in human waves like in Korea

[My poor XF]

Originally Posted by GasOLane

I stopped watching 60mins years ago, about the same time I stopped watching ACA. I see no reason to start again now

Probably the best advice possible

[HEMI-RODS]

Australia's Mineral Wealth isn't that great/BIG compared to other countries like Africa Russia the United States we just bend over and get rodgered silly and agree to terms and conditions easier and don't have as much corruption in Government Departments like some other developing nations.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by Interceptor

dont need a big navy or airforce to invade a country, just a means of delivering troops and thier equipment, covertly land enough troops in the right places, you can neutralise the majority of the defensive measures and take the rest at your leisure, the Sino-Indian war is an example of a simple land war with no air force/naval involvement

Unfortunately for them they cant drive or walk to invade Oz!