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#2431 | ||
Thailand Specials
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Centrefold Lounge
Posts: 49,028
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#2432 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
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In terms of recovery rates (well more accurately, active case rates), a handful of countries have no currently active cases despite having had some: Anguila, Greenland, St Barth and Yemen of which only the latter shares a land border with anyone effectively.
China (if we believe the numbers) is under 1% active cases while French Polynesia, Cambodia and the Faeroe Islands all have single digit active cases and percentages below 5%. Australia (14.68%) and New Zealand (15.33%) are well below the global average of 63.4% while some countries have a long way to go with percentages over 90% and even the UK is still at 84% and the USA at 80.52%. ![]() ![]()
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#2433 | |||
BLUE OVAL INC.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 8,645
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I mean, its the natural progression. |
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#2434 | ||
BLUE OVAL INC.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 8,645
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That's better, old Benty is a ***** of a bloke...and Holden lover, but he's managed to get you blokes to stop fighting for half a page now.
C'mon, show me the love...not you though Franco, I know all about your 'love'.. ![]() Oh, or you Cav, I've seen where you've been, probably still got that bloody rash that comes and goes, i'll accept that fat gutted dog for $500 though. |
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#2435 | ||
HUGH JARSE
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#2436 | ||
Banned
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 2,811
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Hahahahahaaaaaaaa
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#2437 | ||
HUGH JARSE
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#2438 | |||||
Chairman & Administrator
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Location: 1975
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Quote:
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#2439 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: melbourne
Posts: 4,649
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The ramped up testing regime in Victoria has borne fruit - 7 new cases.....further investigation reveals 6 are related to an Aged car facility in Hawthorn and a Hospital in Sunshine.
In other news, after 16 odd days of no new cases, Golf is now permitted in the NT. |
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#2440 | ||
DIY Tragic
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Sydney, more than not. I hate it.
Posts: 21,851
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Cav, is it true that the young women pay you to be their sugar daddy?
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#2441 | |||
Wirlankarra yanama
Join Date: May 2006
Location: God's Country
Posts: 2,103
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Current numbers for the 27 member nations of the EU: Spain Italy France Germany Belgium Netherlands Portugal Sweden Ireland Austria Poland Romania Denmark Czechia Finland Luxembourg Hungary Greece Croatia Iceland Estonia Bulgaria Slovenia Slovakia Lithuania Latvia Malta EU Deaths: 103,120 V's USA Deaths: 61,656 Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries |
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#2442 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: melbourne
Posts: 4,649
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Are you comparing apples with apples?
Unless you have an approximation for the % of the population infected in each country, any comparison on a country to country basis is meaningless. The asymptomatic cases play a role here. Gov. Andrew Cuomo revealed the preliminary results of FDNY/EMS and NYPD members who were screened for coronavirus antibodies and tested positive. The preliminary antibody study showed that 17.1 percent of FDNY/EMT members and 10.5 percent of NYPD members tested were found to have COVID-19 antibodies. The downstate average is of about 18 percent, according to Cuomo. https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coro...sults/2395308/ Some preliminary testing in NYC showed up 24% of New Yorkers with antibody's. Sample could be biased both ways. 12,774 deaths with a denominator of just over 2 mill is not the same as 165k reported. |
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#2443 | ||
Donating Member
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#2444 | ||||
Chairman & Administrator
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It is reasonable to assume that in countries with similar testing regimes that the numbers of identified cases vs unidentified ones would be similar enough but in the absence of wholesale testing of entire populations we'll never know for sure will we(?). It seems unlikely that it would be disparate enough to change the case & mortality rates per capita to such an extent that the relative comparisons became invalid. Quote:
Anyway, let's follow that argument to a logical conclusion. The EU population is ~476M compared to ~331M for the USA so that's about 30% greater. The EU has 1,004,012 confirmed cases vs 1,055,303 (as of this morning) so yes, both the raw numbers and per capita case rate favours the EU with 210.9 v 318.82 per 100k for the USA. The mortality rate, however, favours the USA with 18.46 / 100k against the EU 21.62 / 100k. But then the entire 57 nations that make up Africa amount 1.2B people and they only have 37k cases and 1,582 deaths so their case (3.06) and mortality (0.13) rates are so far ahead of the EU and the USA as to be laughable. I think I started by stating that the USA now had almost a third (32.9%) of the global cases and the EU has almost another third (32.1%) despite them only having 6.12% and 4.25% of the global population respectively.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#2445 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Ivory Tower
Posts: 5,414
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Provide the evidence that 5% of the population will require hospitalisation and/or ICU care.
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2021 BMW M550i in Black Sapphire Metallic.
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#2446 | |||
Budget Racer
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 2,420
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Australia does not have hospital beds for 5% of the population. Australia does not have hospital beds for 1% of the population. Australia has about 100 000 hospital beds for a population of 25 million do the maths. That is why Governments are ramping up the number of beds, especially ICU as we speak.
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12.1@112Mph 285rwkw on n2o Cleveland Power |
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#2447 | |||
Donating Member
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I love Holdens.... |
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#2448 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Ivory Tower
Posts: 5,414
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Quote:
So where's the evidence, not modelling, that 5% of the population will require hospitalisation/ICU? https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...us/3010754001/
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2021 BMW M550i in Black Sapphire Metallic.
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#2449 | |||
Chairman & Administrator
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Location: 1975
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Quote:
In Australia we have had widely differing Hospitalisation / ICU / Intubation rates with hospitalisations ranging from 36% of cases (VIC) down to 3.9% (NSW). Likewise the ICU percentages range from a low of none (Tas) to 2.4% (NSW) and up to 18.4% in Victoria while intubations range from none in WA, SA, Tas through 2.0% in NSW and up to 6.3% in Victoria. The National average is 9% of active cases receiving hospital care; 4% of active cases are in ICU and 3% of active cases are being intubated. If those rates were to be maintained (which they wouldn't) and we have 2,200 ICU beds available then we could support about 5,000 concurrent active cases as long as they were evenly spread where the beds are (which they wouldn't be). To put that in perspective; we currently have 990 active cases nationally. ![]()
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Observatio Facta Rotae
Last edited by russellw; 30-04-2020 at 04:39 PM. |
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#2450 | |||
Donating Member
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#2451 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Ivory Tower
Posts: 5,414
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And because the hospitals weren't overwhelmed these ships were sent away.
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#2453 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Ivory Tower
Posts: 5,414
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Quote:
Do you have any data on Denmark's approach? This would be interesting to see as they're dealing with this virus in a completely different manner to most countries. Is it mandatory or legislated you must present to a health agency or testing agency if you have a cold or flu like symptoms?
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#2454 | ||
Donating Member
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Location: Wellington NZ
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#2455 | |||
Budget Racer
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 2,420
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Quote:
Some obtuse posters in this thread have argued against lockdowns and other measures to slow the spread of the virus. Those same obtuse posters argue things have not turn out nearly as bad as first predicted. This is in part a result of the measures to slow the spread they first complained about. I think my head may explode.... ![]()
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#2456 | |||
Chairman & Administrator
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Quote:
Likewise your figure of 95% not requiring intervention is plucked from where exactly? Just because you keep repeating it, doesn't make it correct and the Australian data I provided above shows that 9% of detected cases do require intervention here. It's actually irrelevant what percentage of the population is running round asymptomatic given that (1) we already know that having had it once doesn't create immunity; (2) we've still only tested 3% of the population and (3) we have solid evidence that even a single person (asymptomatic or not) is capable of creating a cluster of new cases. On that basis it would be reasonable to extrapolate that we are identifying a reasonable percentage of the actual cases or there would be more cluster outbreaks from infected people. I'm not sure why you picked Denmark as 'different'. Denmark has largely followed a similar model to us and was one of the first to initiate lockdowns and legal sanctions for non-compliance and as such their case rate is better than other European countries at 155 per 100k compared to some similarly sized countries like Belgium (413) and Ireland (410) but not as well as Finland (88.5) or Australia (26.45). They have an excellent (and free) health system which is no doubt helping keep their mortality rate well below other countries in Europe at 7.65 / 100k - Belgium is 64.7, Spain 51.9, Italy 45.7 and the Netherlands 27.5 but it's still way ahead of Australia at 0.35. As they are about to start easing restrictions it will be a good case study to see if they get a spike in new cases above the current level of ~120-150 / day.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#2457 | |||
T3/Sprint8
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Location: Australia
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Imagine IF we didn't - all these people coming off cruise ships getting on with their merry lives infecting all those around them + International arrivals going here there everywhere. We'd be in a world of hurt ! How could you not understand that.
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Tickfords T3/TS50 '02 Sprint8 manual Sept 24 '16 Daily Macan GTS "Don't believe everything you read on the internet. Abraham Lincoln" |
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#2458 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: melbourne
Posts: 4,649
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While the study I linked to is too small to be of value in and of itself, there have been another 5 similar studies showing similar results including one done in the prison system in four states of the US and 1 in Italy. Another was in California.
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#2459 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: melbourne
Posts: 4,649
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#2460 | |||
Donating Member
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Location: Wellington NZ
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