Ford executives comment on the future of Falcon and Territory

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by Buntz93ED

Ummm.... yes Private buyers do buy LPG. My Father happening to be one of them. And if he is the only one (he isn't), then that's more than your assumption.

He said in "most part".. I And agree 110%, LPG is not for private buyers, IN MOST PART. They just dont want or like LPG IN MOST PART!!.

LPI will work for Falcon, but only becuase it will sell in large numbers to fleets.. TV adds dont win fleet busines!!


EB4 is where the TV adds are needed!!

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by b0son

Fleet managers dont need to be advertised to - they will do their homework as a matter of course.

Your right that its mainly fleets who will buy dedicated LPG Falcons. Guess who ford are advertising these vehicles too??

[Brazen]

Originally Posted by Paxton

Rav-4 is Corolla based, so that won't happen. It's no secret, however that Toyota want Kluger in Australia. If they can build it locally, they can take it to Ford.

The next Rav4 is on the Toyota Modular Platform which is shared with the new Camry. The next Rav4 uses the new 2.5 litre 4 cylinder... guess which engine is being built at the new $300million engine plant in Victoria next year.

I think local Klugar is dead and Rav4 will be built here, they could sell 1500 a month easy.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Buntz93ED

Ummm.... yes Private buyers do buy LPG. My Father happening to be one of them.

And I'm the greatest lover in the world, just ask my wife. A sample size of one cant be wrong.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Brazen

The next Rav4 is on the Toyota Modular Platform which is shared with the new Camry. The next Rav4 uses the new 2.5 litre 4 cylinder... guess which engine is being built at the new $300million engine plant in Victoria next year.

I think local Klugar is dead and Rav4 will be built here, they could sell 1500 a month easy.

Good pick up, that kinda says that RAV4 will grow again to a true mid sized SUV...

[Brazen]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Good pick up, that kinda says that RAV4 will grow again to a true mid sized SUV...

Where do you see local Ford manufacturing from 2016 onwards? e.g Falcon platform, third model line? etc.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Brazen

Where do you see local Ford manufacturing from 2016 onwards? e.g Falcon platform, third model line? etc.

Oh boy, that's very hard.....

The only way that plants are going to survive here is to have the right balance between production numbers and sale price.


1) Holden's Mike Deveraux is on record saying that without the $149 million Holden would not have
brought Cruze production to Australia, so how much money is he angling for to bring Cruze II?

2) VF will be in its second year as Ford delivers the post E8 big car, Geez no wonder they are terrified,
if Ford changes platforms, they may get a two year head start on Holden but will they go FWD or stay RWD?

3) Ford has now left the field way open, committing until 2016 but keeping mum while Holden has a coronary
My Opinions only:
Ford submits post 2016 Falcon and Terry that share with mustang..Taurus possibly switches to RWd and shares with Lincoln
Possible Ford corporate: Ford decides to build "wide Bodied" AWD Mondeo with same room as E8 Falcon but maybe 100 Kg lighter?
and companion Edge SUV which FNA Insiders tell me is moving to EUCD maybe grow 100mm to Territory size but maybe 100 Kg lighter?


In closing, I think the decision is probably made, Ford just need sales data to make the business case
and 2011 has been a particularly sucky year, the brass are obviously expecting better sale this year.

[Buntz]

I like the post 2016 RWD bit John.

[FPV GTHO]

I think first and foremost, the only 3rd model line that would work at Broadmeadows is something car based, which instantly rules our Endeavour and Ranger. Mondeo makes the most sense as it can sell for higher average prices and still have high enough units to make it more attractive than Focus. I dont think Kuga/Escape will have more units than Mondeo (although probably selling for close to the same prices) and Focus was already ruled out officially so no point analyzing it IMO. I think Mondeo also works if they downsize Falcon to save weight and share more with Mustang.

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by FPV GTHO

I think first and foremost, the only 3rd model line that would work at Broadmeadows is something car based, which instantly rules our Endeavour and Ranger. Mondeo makes the most sense as it can sell for higher average prices and still have high enough units to make it more attractive than Focus. I dont think Kuga/Escape will have more units than Mondeo (although probably selling for close to the same prices) and Focus was already ruled out officially so no point analyzing it IMO. I think Mondeo also works if they downsize Falcon to save weight and share more with Mustang.

Falcon and Mustangs wheelbases are really close already. Wiki it.

But you're right. Ford could maybe turn Falcon into a smaller 4cyl, and V6 RWD car. Then maybe Ford could use it under a Lincoln to combat the new Cadillac ATS.

[FPV GTHO]

I wouldnt even bother with V6. Ecoboost 4 is transmission limited at the moment. If they keep pushing the turbo technology they will soon be able to transition smoothly from a turbo 4 to a V8. IMO a I4 and 90 degree V8 will allow a lower bonnet line than something that needs to accomodate a 60 degree V6.

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by FPV GTHO

I wouldnt even bother with V6. Ecoboost 4 is transmission limited at the moment. If they keep pushing the turbo technology they will soon be able to transition smoothly from a turbo 4 to a V8. IMO a I4 and 90 degree V8 will allow a lower bonnet line than something that needs to accomodate a 60 degree V6.

90 degree V8? Do you mean a boxer eight as regards bank alignment? Or V8 in transverse FWD setup?

Ford put a V8 in the cockroach over in the US. What a woeful piece of misery.

[BroadyFord]

Here is an article that perfectly sums up the situation re Falcon post-2016:

Rumours of Ford's demise based on unavoidable facts

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-1226240707214

THE obituary writers for Ford Australia have been told: news of our death has been greatly exaggerated.

With $103 million more poured into the kitty, Ford can freshen up the Falcon and Territory and keep going until 2016.

It’s unusual to learn about a company’s plans this far out, we’re told, but it’s necessary to stop the “wild rumours” about the company’s imminent exit, the latest of which has it shutting up shop as early as the end of next year.

Wild or not, the rumours have their basis in unavoidable facts. Chief among them is the declining demand for large cars generally - it tumbled again last year, to less than 8 per cent of the market - and the Falcon in particular, with sales plummeting 36.5 per cent last year to fewer than 20,000. Ironically, government fleets are now among the most reluctant to buy.

The other ingredient is the One Ford strategy championed by turnaround chief Alan Mulally, which dictates one model in each car category for sale in every market.

We’ve known for some time that the Falcon would need to change and since Ford abandoned plans to make a small car - something that’s working for Holden - it’s been unclear what it could make when the Falcon and Territory finish.

This cash injection does nothing to extend that timeline. Their lifecycles were destined to end in 2015-16 anyway. The question marks remain.

The money is an admission, in effect, that Ford Australia needs to be on life-support just to get it that far.

But it does keep it in the game, and anything can happen. Labor might still be in power at crunch time, and Kim Carr has reasserted its willingness to co-invest to keep the industry here. The Green Car Innovation Fund has gone, but there’s still what’s left of the $3.4 billion Automotive Transformation Scheme.

The other car-makers will still be around, too, with Holden close to agreement with Canberra on plans for the latter half of the decade, when crucial decisions will be made about the Commodore. Toyota is also secure for this generation of the Camry at least, with a new engine plant under construction.

These facts will encourage Ford HQ.

There’s also the not inconsiderable matter of its design and engineering capacity in Geelong, which is one of only a handful around the globe. In theory, it could exist without the manufacturing plant. But probably not for long.

All this means that even something as wildly unlikely as Ford spending huge to bring its Broadmeadows plant into the 21st century and re-equip it to make something else - when it doesn’t need the capacity and the high dollar means building cars here is expensive - could happen.

What we know for sure though, is that the car-makers will always have their hands out every time there’s a decision about the future to be made. That's now explicit in a way it never has been before. The thin veil of eventual sustainability has slipped off the industry forever.

[jpd80]

The way I see it, where we are now is like 2004 when FG was being conceived and back then:

Ford didn't talk about FG until the early parts of 2006 when the project was awaiting green lighting but was then
held up until state and federal governments tipped in funding, without it, Gorman threatened to just reskin BFII
FG was then held up a further six months before December lock in , 18 months later in mid 2008, FG emerged.

Everything I've said in the above information was freely available and reported in the press back in 2006, nothing is made up.


My opinion only:
if the above time line is anything to go by, we are merely at proposal submission phase, FoA then has another
two years of design and development in front of them until they seek the green light for funding and final lock in
at roughly the time the 2014 refreshed Falcon is being released. It is only at that time, we can expect an
announcement regarding the Falcon and production in Australia, they may announce earlier but don't count on it.


None of us is going to get the assurances the car journalists continue to seek from Ford and Holden,
it doesn't make economic sense for a motor company to totally commit this far out, too much can change.

[2011G6E]

In the news this morning they said Ford just got another $34 million from the government.
Unfortunately, big cars don't seem to be the flavour of the moment anymore with the general public.

As has been said before...with only 22 million people, we're lucky the American head honchos let us build cars here at all.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by 2011G6E

In the news this morning they said Ford just got another $34 million from the government.
Unfortunately, big cars don't seem to be the flavour of the moment anymore with the general public.

As has been said before...with only 22 million people, we're lucky the American head honchos let us build cars here at all.

And it's also a credit to Ford and Holden that they have been able to reap most of the large car sales,
it may now only be 7% of the market but it's still 70,000 cars total so if they are still relatively profitable,
it's hard to say no. The trick is controlling costs and maximizing usage of your vehicles, this is why Ford
developed companion Territory to assist in keeping the Falcon and shared engineering alive.

LOL, I'm a glass three quarters full guy and it looks to me that 2012 will be better for both,
improved sales for Falcon via EcoLPI and Ecoboost means that they step back from the abyss,
the next mid cycle enhancement is budgeted for 2014 and baring major event, will run to 2016.

My opinions:
Holden will get their funding too, Cruze hatch will be a big success and all the gloom will disappear.
Our favorite car, the Falcon is safe for another four years, we should all be happy with that.

[2011G6E]

Originally Posted by jpd80

And it's also a credit to Ford and Holden that they have been able to reap most of the large car sales,
it may now only be 7% of the market but it's still 70,000 cars total so if they are still relatively profitable,
it's hard to say no. The trick is controlling costs and maximizing usage of your vehicles, this is why Ford
developed companion Territory to assist in keeping the Falcon and shared engineering alive.

LOL, I'm a glass three quarters full guy and it looks to me that 2012 will be better for both,
improved sales for Falcon via EcoLPI and Ecoboost means that they step back from the abyss,
the next mid cycle enhancement is budgeted for 2014 and baring major event, will run to 2016.

My opinions:
Holden will get their funding too, Cruze hatch will be a big success and all the gloom will disappear.
Our favorite car, the Falcon is safe for another four years, we should all be happy with that.

That's the trouble...when economic times are tough (and likely to get tougher in the near future), big companies like GM and Ford will look at this tiny market half way round the world, and see figures like "7% of the market and 70,000 cars total", and wonder if it's worth it...there's no way figures like that can be spun to make them look good, apart from trying to appeal to the "tradition" of having Falcons and Commodores. If not for that, there's literally no reason to keep building cars from scratch in Australia at all...it's always been a heavily subsidised and tariff and tax protected industry desperately trying to ignore the big bad world outside our borders and stop the parent companies from just shutting up production (apart from CKD kits I suppose) and importing what we need from the truly massive plants overseas where 70,000 cars is a small production run.

[BroadyFord]

Originally Posted by jpd80

My opinion only:
if the above time line is anything to go by, we are merely at proposal submission phase, FoA then has another
two years of design and development in front of them until they seek the green light for funding and final lock in
at roughly the time the 2014 refreshed Falcon is being released. It is only at that time, we can expect an
announcement regarding the Falcon and production in Australia, they may announce earlier but don't count on it.

The problem is that by that time, Labor will more than likely be out of office and Kim Carr will no longer be industry minister. The Liberals are on record of saying that they will reduce car industry funding which could spell the end of Ford manufacturing after 2016.

Also, Marin Burela said that FoA will be making a decision on the FG replacement at the end of 2011 - that was in 2009.

[csv8]

I watched TGUSA on saturday..they had the Buick Roadmaster..maybe Ford OZ could build something like that !!!!!

[FPV GTHO]

Originally Posted by Buntz93ED

90 degree V8? Do you mean a boxer eight as regards bank alignment? Or V8 in transverse FWD setup?

Ford put a V8 in the cockroach over in the US. What a woeful piece of misery.

Boxer would be 180 degrees. I just mean a contemporary V8 in comparison to a contemporary V6 which is only 60 degrees and therefore has alot of its intake hardware sitting higher. I believe that was the main issue in the V6 Falcon needing a new bonnet. The I engine hardware hangs off the side of the motor and the 90 degree V8 has enough room between the banks to sink some of the intake hardware down.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Our favorite car, the Falcon is safe for another four years, we should all be happy with that.

Thats what they thought about the Magna after Mitsu got their government support. It died soon after.

No amount of help will keep the Falcon going if the sales arent there. If the downward slide continues.....

[turboxf]

Well we have seen what the new fg2 looks like , now it is very similar to this TAURUS in frontal design as we see the launch of the FUSION this week, will the MONDEO look a bit meaner than the FUSION

This pic & article was a while back , but in the article Jmays says there will be some differences!

http://www.autoblog.com/2011/04/27/r...r-next-falcon/

This mondeo design looks way meaner
http://otoloso.blogspot.com/2011/09/...-revealed.html

[FPV GTHO]

Mondeo was launched alongside Fusion, it has a yellow bezel along the bottom of the headlight

[2011G6E]

Originally Posted by b0son

Thats what they thought about the Magna after Mitsu got their government support. It died soon after.

No amount of help will keep the Falcon going if the sales arent there. If the downward slide continues.....

Very good point...towards the end, the Magna was a very good car indeed, especially in V6 form. The 380 that replaced it was even better and a very good drive, which I remember was critisized for being "V6 only" as they did away with the four cylinder option. Great car otherwise, which deserved better.
Looking back in history if you were old enough you would remember the venom, the wailing and nashing of teeth, the horror that greeted Australians when we were told that the Kingswood was being axed in favour of that funny little European-based car, the Commodore. No matter that the Commodore was ten times the car...dynamically and otherwise...that the outgoing Kingswood was, the Kingswood was loved by all, and those evil bastards listening to bean-counters were dropping it!

Nothing to say it won't happen again with the Falcon or Commodore, to be replaced with similarly-sized imports or CKD kits from home office.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BroadyFord

The problem is that by that time, Labor will more than likely be out of office and Kim Carr will no longer be industry minister. The Liberals are on record of saying that they will reduce car industry funding which could spell the end of Ford manufacturing after 2016.

Also, Marin Burela said that FoA will be making a decision on the FG replacement at the end of 2011 - that was in 2009.

But he never said that the decision would be made public either.....

That would be like Ford announcing development of FG way back in 2004,
I don't think anything surfaced for about 18 months after that time..

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by b0son

Thats what they thought about the Magna after Mitsu got their government support. It died soon after.

No amount of help will keep the Falcon going if the sales arent there. If the downward slide continues.....

Mitsubishi was basing their numbers to be sustainable on the LWB PS41L?, a bigger 380 to export to the US as the Diamante. Then Mitsubishi HQ pulled the program off them and they started building them in Canada, killing Mitsubishi Australia overnight. As soon as that decision was made the Mitsubishi Australia CEO would have know instantly they were stuffed.

Ford won't have that problem.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Ford won't have that problem.

Doesnt mean they wont have a problem at all. Mitsu pulled the pin because even aside from the export situation, 1000 units per month was not viable.

Ford is selling 1500/mth? Another 30% drop this year and the only way to justify going forward is if the Terri defrays a significant proportion of Falcon manufacturing costs.

If EcoLPI and EcoBoost dont stop the rot, I dont see Ford HQ giving the greenlight to a new Falcon, government money or not.

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by b0son

Doesnt mean they wont have a problem at all. Mitsu pulled the pin because even aside from the export situation, 1000 units per month was not viable.

Ford is selling 1500/mth? Another 30% drop this year and the only way to justify going forward is if the Terri defrays a significant proportion of Falcon manufacturing costs.

No, Ford is actually selling 3500-4000 local cars per month in total.
Mitsu was selling 1000 in total local cars!! Big difference, but don't let me stop you from putting Ford down!!

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

No, Ford is actually selling 3500-4000 local cars per month in total.
Mitsu was selling 1000 in total local cars!!

Mitsu were selling 1000 total, but that was one model.

What matters is the minimum viable number for a given model. For Falcon, its complicated by the amount of components shared with Terri... but even so, there's a figure below which the Falcon is too expensive to put down the line. It must surely be getting close to that by now?

It wouldnt matter if Ford were selling 10,000 month... if there were 20 models, it wouldnt be a viable exercise.

[Falc'man]

Originally Posted by BroadyFord

Here is an article that perfectly sums up the situation re Falcon post-2016:

Rumours of Ford's demise based on unavoidable facts

Two words.

When the locals are competing with cars made on global budgets, which are also made with government handouts from their respective countries - handouts that are much larger, and you can say, in proportion to their respective projects - and that the locals are still selling and making profits, and then he is singling out Ford amongst the locals as the only ones not being viable, when in reality if any one of the locals is in trouble, it's not them, you can then say that the writer of this article, Phillip King, has very poor reasoning skills as well as short-sightedness, and very little understanding of this industry.