Covid 19 -

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

- Assuming that Victoria is not going to use gross national figures to override substantial shortfalls in the state.

.

We've been tracking pretty much with the national average on 1st dose. I'm confident we'll hit the 70%, fair to assume everyone will go for their 2nd, and sincerely hope gov has stockpiled to guarantee supply of 2nd.

Moderna is a 4 week interval so that should really speed up the fully vaccinated rate If there is enough supply, and no hesitancy.

Interesting to note that the issue on number of people "stuck" overseas has gone quiet all of a sudden. How many have changed their minds? Who would want to come back and be confined to curfews, 10km travel limits, no leisure, sport or retail?

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

The dates aren't promised, they are "indicative" based on current vaccination forecast. Its the jab % that counts, as per national plan.

Interesting to note that the Vic roadmap forecast is vastly different to the Covidlive forecast, Vic is A LOT more optimistic. There have already been some rumblings that there is a shortage of Pfizer to QLD and Vic. And don't forget we owe 5m due to be paid in Dec. Hopefully Moderna can more than make up for it.

Paying it back in December is no issue, we should already be over the 80% and so the demand will be right down.

What i find more interesting is that we will pass Poland tomorrow on the doses per 100,000 population measure (according to covidlive) https://covidlive.com.au/world/vaccinations This is one of the places we "borrowed" Pfizer from, so they must have a lot more hesitancy than us.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by tweeked

Paying it back in December is no issue, we should already be over the 80% and so the demand will be right down.

We are in a tricky scenario right now, and it feels like that those who will be taking AZ right about now, and who prefer to wait the full 12 weeks, will be somewhat held to ransom. If they decide to wait the full 12 weeks, then we are looking at end of Dec to close out the 80%.

Personally, if I was due for AZ now, I would be switching to Moderna. Just so I can achieve 2nd dose sooner without efficacy compromise.

[russellw]

The lockdown for the two commuter corridors (Geelong and Mitchell) doesn't surprise me as the number of tradies in those two areas who were travelling into metro areas for construction (and other supposedly essential) work is high as are the case numbers being seen in those areas.

Not quite sure what caused the Surf Coast one but an extrapolation based on the traffic volumes seen on the Westgate in the two days before regional lockdowns ended might lead some to conclude that certain self-serving metropolitan residents escaped the metro areas and headed down to the Surf Coast.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Moderna is a 4 week interval so that should really speed up the fully vaccinated rate If there is enough supply, and no hesitancy.

Interesting to note that the issue on number of people "stuck" overseas has gone quiet all of a sudden. How many have changed their minds? Who would want to come back and be confined to curfews, 10km travel limits, no leisure, sport or retail?

Seems national rates for first dose is around 72%. You would assume that those people will get the same type for the second dose.

I'm sure there is a ton of AZ and enough Pfizer floating around to do the second doses so lets assume that we still have a bunch of people getting what is available on the shelf the first half of this week then the Moderna shot will only be 5-10% of the total population.

I think once we hit high 70's to low 80's vaccination rates will slow quite dramatically. While we are averaging around 5% a week now I think after 80% that rate will drop to 1.5-2% per week. I would be surprised if we hit 90%.

I'm wondering if there are people actually holding out for Moderna?

In regards to people stuck overseas. The intake numbers are very low now and I'm wondering if tickets are still stupid expensive for those that do get a seat?

I think once we hit the 80% needed for international borders they will remove inbound restrictions and this will allow carriers to offer reasonably priced inbound seats for all returning Australians.

My rationale for this is that flying multiple planes here near empty to collect out bounders makes no money and causes out bound tickets to be more costly and if we assume that an average OS holiday for an Australian may be 10 days to 2 weeks then while they are away the inbound are in the quarantine facilities which will be vacated once the first wave of travellers return.

That's assuming they will still have some sort of quarantine policy for returning travellers.

It will also pose another problem for those still stuck OS. Our first OS trips will be between countries we have a travel bubble agreement with meaning that should people stuck OS want to return home as soon as borders open they will need to first get to one of the travel bubble cities to get on a plane.

Which may also have their own quarantine requirements.

See what happens I guess. Time will tell.

[T3rminator]

Opinion piece from a working paramedic in Syd. Some interesting conundrum there on how to handle kids and parents.

Don’t believe the Covid coping spin, those on the road know the health system is in meltdown

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...is-in-meltdown

"Regardless of who they get to speak at the sanitised press conferences, no one has come close to describing the strain the healthcare system is feeling. It’s buckling."

"The other night I had a single parent with two kids under 10. They were all Covid-positive and the mum was very unwell, very short of breath. I could not convince her to come to hospital as she didn’t want to be separated from her kids (we would have had to take them to the children’s hospital separately).

I had to coach her eight-year-old daughter how to recognise respiratory distress and told her to sleep in her mum’s bed. She said she knew how to call 000 and she knew her address, but putting that burden on an eight-year-old was heartbreaking."

[Work Horse]

My daughter got her first pfizer jab at Jeffs shed yesterday. She was in the "priority" queue as she is a VCE student.

Plenty there just walking in, it was very well set up.

She is booked for her second dose in 3 weeks. So they are speeding things up by reducing the time between jabs, but it also reduces the effectiveness of the vaccine. I hope that does not come back to bite us.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

My daughter got her first pfizer jab at Jeffs shed yesterday. She was in the "priority" queue as she is a VCE student.

Plenty there just walking in, it was very well set up.

She is booked for her second dose in 3 weeks. So they are speeding things up by reducing the time between jabs, but it also reduces the effectiveness of the vaccine. I hope that does not come back to bit us.

I thought 3 weeks between jabs for Pfizer was standard timeframe?

That's what I was told when I got mine a few months ago.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

I thought 3 weeks between jabs for Pfizer was standard timeframe?

That's what I was told when I got mine a few months ago.

My mistake, they recommend 3-6 weeks so it is actually fine.

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Interesting to note that the issue on number of people "stuck" overseas has gone quiet all of a sudden. How many have changed their minds? Who would want to come back and be confined to curfews, 10km travel limits, no leisure, sport or retail?

Ain’t that the truth Amigo!

[ford71V8]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

My mistake, they recommend 3-6 weeks so it is actually fine.

I was under the impression that while 3-6 week gap for Pfizer shots is correct, the efficacy is better at 6 than 3.
And any time longer than 6 is pointless.

[Citroënbender]

Strong result for the GSS. 💪

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Opinion piece from a working paramedic in Syd. Some interesting conundrum there on how to handle kids and parents.

Just read the article, and its going to get worse, it's as bad here in Perth, we don't have covid lockdown but ambulance ramping is rife here, the so called rich State of WA has no lockdown but the worst ramping in Australia!

So while the " elite few" were dining big at the Brownlow, normal WA citizens were more worried about a hospital bed if taken ill, the system here is broken, the rank and file are treated as non citizens, determined by income or age, its a disgrace all round!
When covid hits Perth I hope I'm not around, I sincerely mean that



Cheers Billy

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT September 19th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,562 new cases for Australia and 14 deaths so the CMR is 1.357%.

22 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.665%.

The UK had 29,007 cases yesterday and 56 deaths for a CMR of 1.820%.

68,268 new cases in the USA yesterday and 856 deaths sees CMR at 1.613%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 229M, the last 1M in 2 days;
Global deaths pass 4.7M, the last 50k in 6 days;
Asia passes 74M cases;

Only -
Syria (190)

... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Iran and Ghana drop below.

[russellw]

NSW/VIC

NSW records 936 cases in the current period - the first day under 1k cases in more than three weeks. The 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9573 (from 0.9807) while the actual line continues below the predictive trend line and based on the 4th order polynomial, that trend line has a downward curve. Based on this model, NSW could well be back below 200 cases / day in about 10 days time.



VIC records 567 cases in the current period (another high for this outbreak) and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0714 (from 1.0613) while the actual line moves back toward the predictive trend line. Based on this model, Victoria might well pass the 1k case mark in the next 10 days.



Victoria is at day 70 with 8,353 cases recorded this outbreak compared to 11,502 for the 2020 Victorian outbreak and 15,004 at the same point in NSW this year.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by ford71V8

I was under the impression that while 3-6 week gap for Pfizer shots is correct, the efficacy is better at 6 than 3.
And any time longer than 6 is pointless.

The WHO advises that full protection requires two doses which WHO recommends be administered with a 21 to 28-day interval.

This Yale Medicine article states two shots, 21 days apart.

Interesting details in the Yale document (updated September 17, so pretty current) regarding efficacy and the need for a booster shot with the Pfizer (also known under the names of Pfizer-BioNTech, BNT162b2 or Comirnaty):

How well it works: Experts continue to learn about Pfizer’s efficacy both in the laboratory and in the real world. Pfizer’s initial Phase 3 clinical data presented in December showed its vaccine to have 95% efficacy.

In April, the company announced the vaccine had 91.3% efficacy against COVID-19, based on measuring how well it prevented symptomatic COVID-19 infection seven days through up to six months after the second dose. It also found it to be 100% effective in preventing severe disease as defined by the CDC, and 95.3% effective in preventing severe disease as defined by the FDA. Another study, not yet peer-reviewed, provided more new data that brought the efficacy number down to 84% after 6 months, although efficacy against severe disease was 97%.

In August, the CDC also published studies that showed mRNA vaccine protection against infection may be waning, although the vaccines were still highly effective against hospitalization. In one CDC study, data from the state of New York showed vaccine effectiveness dropping from 91.7 to 79.8% against infection.

I also note the following in the WHO article:

Does it prevent infection and transmission?
There is currently no substantive data are available related to impact of Pfizer BioNTech vaccine on transmission or viral shedding.

In the meantime, we must maintain and strengthen public health measures that work: masking, physical distancing, handwashing, respiratory and cough hygiene, avoiding crowds, and ensuring good ventilation

[russellw]

Originally Posted by ford71V8

I was under the impression that while 3-6 week gap for Pfizer shots is correct, the efficacy is better at 6 than 3.
And any time longer than 6 is pointless.

Almost. Certainly efficacy is better at 6 weeks than 3 but some research in the UK has indicated that 8 weeks provided better and longer protection.

The best guide for how much the reduction for Pfizer is suggests that the difference between 3 weeks and 6 weeks is only a couple of percentage points and maximum protection (~96%) is 14 days after the 2nd shot.

However, we do know that AZ is significantly less effective when the second dose is taken at 6 (60%) rather than 12 (81%) weeks and then 66% and 86% 14 days after that 2nd shot. It's why I'm waiting the full 12 weeks even if that does mean I'm waiting until the 3rd week of November.

[Citroënbender]

Re the NSW graph, it looks to have not carried over the most current new case count, only showing through yesterday’s numbers.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Strong result for the GSS. 💪

Yes, good to see the case rate is decreasing.

On another note, I thought Gladys indicated last week or the week before that she wouldn't be attending/holding press conferences on case numbers any longer as she had more important things to do with her time.

A cynic might suggest we're still seeing her at the pressers because the numbers are decreasing?

[GO FURTHER]

It probably comes as no surprise at all, but Victoria's population shrinks as the pandemic exodus hits.

Victoria is now home to 43,000 fewer people than at the start of the pandemic, making it the only state or territory to record a drop in population since coronavirus hit Australia.

The state shrank by enough people to fill the Victorian border city of Wodonga in the 12 months to March on Australian Bureau of Statistics data.

With the international border also closed, offshore migration also failed to make up for those leaving the state.

[Syndrome]

Come on CFMEU - shut down the construction industry! This is what we need to combat the tyrants in the Victorian parliament.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

It probably comes as no surprise at all, but Victoria's population shrinks as the pandemic exodus hits.

Victoria is now home to 43,000 fewer people than at the start of the pandemic, making it the only state or territory to record a drop in population since coronavirus hit Australia.

The state shrank by enough people to fill the Victorian border city of Wodonga in the 12 months to March on Australian Bureau of Statistics data.

With the international border also closed, offshore migration also failed to make up for those leaving the state.


image

Longest lockdowns in the world. No wonder people want to get the hell out of here, with Captain Lockdown Dan Andrews ego and thirst for ultimate power destroying the state.

Even when we reach the vax targets he still wants strong control over who can do what, where and when. Business's going to the wall all over the place.

[Polyal]

Wonder when the last time (if ever) we had people leaving a state?

[russellw]

I've updated the NSW graph for today.

[Peter B - CV8]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Wonder when the last time (if ever) we had people leaving a state?

End of the gold rush back the 1800's ???

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

It probably comes as no surprise at all, but Victoria's population shrinks as the pandemic exodus hits.

Victoria is now home to 43,000 fewer people than at the start of the pandemic, making it the only state or territory to record a drop in population since coronavirus hit Australia.

The state shrank by enough people to fill the Victorian border city of Wodonga in the 12 months to March on Australian Bureau of Statistics data.

With the international border also closed, offshore migration also failed to make up for those leaving the state.


image

So, the way I read that graph, 1000 people moved to Queensland from states other than Victoria

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Wonder when the last time (if ever) we had people leaving a state?

Probably the last two World Wars, if they count.

[DJR-351]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

Come on CFMEU - shut down the construction industry! This is what we need to combat the tyrants in the Victorian parliament.

The CFMEU have got there own problems with there own members.....

Construction workers gather outside the CFMEU office

https://www.news.com.au/national/vic...e84a939b0fbfff

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

It probably comes as no surprise at all, but Victoria's population shrinks as the pandemic exodus hits.

Victoria is now home to 43,000 fewer people than at the start of the pandemic, making it the only state or territory to record a drop in population since coronavirus hit Australia.

The state shrank by enough people to fill the Victorian border city of Wodonga in the 12 months to March on Australian Bureau of Statistics data.

With the international border also closed, offshore migration also failed to make up for those leaving the state.

PS, its nearly time for me to head back to QLD, l love that kind of weather.


image

Yep your last line says it all.

Old Australians move to QLD. (And so will I soon, I love it up there)

New Australians migrate from overseas to the less tropical and humid, larger cities with bigger education hubs of Melbourne and a lesser extent Sydney.

International migrants much prefer Melbourne and due to cost a lesser extent Sydney.

Once the borders reopen this will go straight back to normal.

[tweeked]

Sorry Go Further, somehow I edited your quote instead of my comment - I wondered where it went!!