Covid 19 -

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by DJR-351

A great Australian and a great Ambassador for his people......

No,no,no, his Father was the "Great Australian"....the "Great Ambassador"..
And Great Fathers do not necessarily have "Great Sons"
This is my personal opinion only, just like yours!

I met the father Tony at the Australian Hotel in Redfern in maybe 1970, I was 17 years old, straight off the boat from the UK, he was the most humble and quiet man I have ever met, there was no "mouth" non of his sons antics, Anthony Mundine is a big gob with arms and legs, he is not his father and shouldn't be mentioned in the same paragraph or sentence as the brilliant boxer and sportsman Tony Mundine!


Cheers King Billy

[DJR-351]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

No,no,no, his Father was the "Great Australian"....the "Great Ambassador"..
And Great Fathers do not necessarily have "Great Sons"
This is my personal opinion only, just like yours!

I met the father Tony at the Australian Hotel in Redfern in maybe 1970, I was 17 years old, straight off the boat from the UK, he was the most humble and quiet man I have ever met, there was no "mouth" non of his sons antics, Anthony Mundine is a big gob with arms and legs, he is not his father and shouldn't be mentioned in the same paragraph or sentence as the brilliant boxer and sportsman Tony Mundine!


Cheers King Billy

It was not opinion, mine or otherwise, it was sarcasm....

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

Thankfully, Anthony Mundine has come out with more words of wisdom...... As Anthony does...............

https://www.news.com.au/sport/boxing...06ecc392c4dbca

That Fwit has had too many punches to the head. He likes stirring S***

[Trevor 57]

see on this morning news that a lot of Sydneysiders are happy for the lock-down to continue . . . . . . . . . . they must, coz they are ignoring the rules

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

see on this morning news that a lot of Sydneysiders are happy for the lock-down to continue . . . . . . . . . . they must, coz they are ignoring the rules

Really?? Slept in so didn't catch the morning bulletin.

Only Sydneysiders happy for this to continue are the ones with no kids who have a sit down office style job easily able to be done from home.

A parent with 2 or 3 school aged kids will be quite unhappy... no word yet on if schools are opening.

Thank God I'm no longer teaching full time, the new place I've moved into only has decent reception on the balcony... would make for some interesting zoom calls..

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

Thankfully, Anthony Mundine has come out with more words of wisdom...... As Anthony does...............

https://www.news.com.au/sport/boxing...06ecc392c4dbca

The guy is a conundrum - I have genuine respect for his abilities and commitment to indigenous causes but he also says some silly stuff.

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

see on this morning news that a lot of Sydneysiders are happy for the lock-down to continue . . . . . . . . . . they must, coz they are ignoring the rules

Lockdown? Was there a lockdown on? Let me check when we get back from lunch

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

see on this morning news that a lot of Sydneysiders are happy for the lock-down to continue . . . . . . . . . . they must, coz they are ignoring the rules

Good to hear the good people of regional NSW enforcing their own GTFO order though.

Originally Posted by zilo

Indian delta variant of Covid comes in via India.
Reduce travellers from india reduce infections. from India.

It's a really easy fix.

yeah yeah all those with indian girlfriends will say its racist...yawn

Not racist, but needs a fact check. Can delta infect non indians and/or come through destinations other than India? Please confirm.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Good to hear the good people of regional NSW enforcing their own GTFO order though.
.

Loved the story last week from Denman dobbing in the Paddo horsey people off to the pony club.
We were like that here with Melbournites a little while ago.

[DJR-351]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Not racist, but needs a fact check. Can delta infect non indians and/or come through destinations other than India? Please confirm.

The Delta variant was first detected in India but is not exclusive to infecting Indians, it's highly contagious to any race and has already spread to other countries, it's already working it's way through Europe and N America to name a couple of areas....

So in answer to your question of whether it can come to Aus through countries other than India then the answer is yes....

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/whi...nt-2021-07-01/

[zilo]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Not racist, but needs a fact check. Can delta infect non indians and/or come through destinations other than India? Please confirm.

No fact check needed...does Indian variant originate from India....YES
A flight from India brings which variant? The Delta variant.
Hope that clears it up.

I am all for stopping all flights but especially from India.

Originally Posted by Work Horse

The Delta variant entered Australia via the American crew of a fedex plane. They infected their Australian limo driver, who was not vaccinated and didn't wear a mask.[/B]

Two things...
(1) I am talking about passenger planes, for all we know that cargo plane had been to India that week...don't suppose you can provide the flight details?

(2) Can you prove that he did not wear a mask? Bet you can not?

Originally Posted by Work Horse

How would stopping Indian nationals entering Australia change the outcome?

Indian nationals are usually returning from....INDIA?
Where is the largest pool of Indian aka Delta Virus cases?...INDIA



Nothing against Indians, hey I love curry...but it is obvious...

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by zilo

No fact check needed...does Indian variant originate from India....YES
A flight from India brings which variant? The Delta variant.
Hope that clears it up.

I am all for stopping all flights but especially from India.


Two things...
(1) I am talking about passenger planes, for all we know that cargo plane had been to India that week...don't suppose you can provide the flight details?

(2) Can you prove that he did not wear a mask? Bet you can not?



Indian nationals are usually returning from....INDIA?
Where is the largest pool of Indian aka Delta Virus cases?...INDIA



Nothing against Indians, hey I love curry...but it is obvious...

98.3% of new cases in the UK are the Delta variant. Work that into you thoughts

https://www.newscientist.com/article...ve-travellers/

[zilo]

Originally Posted by tweeked

98.3% of new cases in the UK are the Delta variant. Work that into you thoughts

98.3% of new cases in the Uk, the Indian Delta variant, originated from India.

Is that what you are trying to say?

From your own link....

European Union’s covid-19 vaccine certification scheme doesn’t approve entry for people who have had a version of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine manufactured in India



That is funny....


.

[hawkgirl]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Good to hear the good people of regional NSW enforcing their own GTFO order though.

You betcha we do
Non locals beware











*soft banjo music.....

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT July 3rd, 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

50 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 2.961%.

No cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.948% and active cases 31.

The UK had a lower 24,447 cases yesterday and lower 18 deaths.

A higher 18,584 new cases in the USA yesterday and higher 592 deaths sees CMR at 1.796%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 184M, the last 1M in 2 days;

Honduras (1,798);
Cuba (3,475);
Thailand (6,230);
South Africa (26,485); and
Indonesia (27,913)

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Russia moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while no countries drop below.

[Trevor 57]

No worries Monty's little boy

[tweeked]

I am sensing a big swing in public opinion. We were the envy of the world in the early stages. But now as more news comes out showing other countries starting to return to normal, accepting flu like death rates, stopping counting cases, our public will suddenly want the same. They will not want to live in the shadow of the next lockdown anymore, too scared to book a holiday in our own backyard. We risk being an isolated backwater. By the odds, 20-30ish deaths if everyone in the country got AZ, less using our limited Pfizer stocks. 20 times that will die on the roads before Xmas. Do it now.

Trying to stop every single death is not good for us. It is why motorcycles are legal, why you can smoke a cigarette, eat McDonalds, why parachuting, rock climbing, snorkelling in shark territory are allowed. I was disappointed with our feds road map. Make it clear, @ 70% we open up. Every older person will have had the opportunity to vaccinate. Fully immunised should have no restrictions. Make it clear what and when.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by tweeked

I am sensing a big swing in public opinion. We were the envy of the world in the early stages. But now as more news comes out showing other countries starting to return to normal, accepting flu like death rates, stopping counting cases, our public will suddenly want the same. They will not want to live in the shadow of the next lockdown anymore, too scared to book a holiday in our own backyard. We risk being an isolated backwater. By the odds, 20-30ish deaths if everyone in the country got AZ, less using our limited Pfizer stocks. 20 times that will die on the roads before Xmas. Do it now.

Trying to stop every single death is not good for us. It is why motorcycles are legal, why you can smoke a cigarette, eat McDonalds, why parachuting, rock climbing, snorkelling in shark territory are allowed. I was disappointed with our feds road map. Make it clear, @ 70% we open up. Every older person will have had the opportunity to vaccinate. Fully immunised should have no restrictions. Make it clear what and when.

The general public of Australia is getting sick of lockdowns, when covid19 first appeared on our door step in early 2020, the big fear from our political masters was hospitals being overran with too many patients not being abled to be treated properly with so many deaths predicted as we were not prepared for this pandemic.
Unfortunately Victoria was the only state that had high number of deaths through mismanagement which has been corrected from lessons learned.
Does Australia need internal border restrictions every time an outbreak occurs? No is my answer as it has been proven with previous outbreaks contact tracing is working and our hospital system is adequately coping with the few cases of people being admitted.
Covid19 will never be eradicated as it is here to stay, quicker we vaccinate the quicker we return to normality.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Officemanager

The general public of Australia is getting sick of lockdowns, when covid19 first appeared on our door step in early 2020, the big fear from our political masters was hospitals being overran with too many patients not being abled to be treated properly with so many deaths predicted as we were not prepared for this pandemic.
Unfortunately Victoria was the only state that had high number of deaths through mismanagement which has been corrected from lessons learned.
Does Australia need internal border restrictions every time an outbreak occurs? No is my answer as it has been proven with previous outbreaks contact tracing is working and our hospital system is adequately coping with the few cases of people being admitted.
Covid19 will never be eradicated as it is here to stay, quicker we vaccinate the quicker we return to normality.

We seem to keep criticising the things that has actually kept the community safe, deaths low, and allowed us to live relatively freely.

Of the countries which did not impose strong preventative controls, borders and snap lock downs when needed, which one would you say has managed the pandemic well and had an acceptable number of deaths?

Have hospitals not been over runed because we have acted swiftly and strongly?

Agree on the vaccination, but until then, keep doing what has kept us being a "success". We are only questioning our own "success" now due to the botched vaccine roll out. IMHO.

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Sounds crazy eh.....or does it!

Cheers King Billy

YEP!! But I enjoy reading your perspective so keep em coming.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT July 4th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

19 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 2.959%.

9 cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.945% and active cases 32.

The UK had a lower 23,818 cases yesterday and lower 15 deaths.

A much lower 8,017 new cases in the USA yesterday and lower 96 deaths sees CMR at 1.796%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Asia passes 800k deaths;

Fiji (522)
Vietnam (922);
Myanmar (2,318) - the previous high on 10/10/20;
Kazakhstan (3,003); and
Cuba (3,519)

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while no countries drop below.

[russellw]

I think we are well at the 'acceptable' level of cases and mortality numbers in our current state but it is difficult to extrapolate what would happen in the event that we tried to return to 'normal' with no lockdowns, international travel reasonably unrestricted etc, etc.

Let's postulate that: (1) 90% of the adult population get vaccinated; (2) those vaccines are completely effective; and (3) we don't get a more deadly strain of the virus. Thus only 10% of the adult population (1.8M people) would be at risk of getting infected at some point in time:

- at our current CMR those cases would result in 53,300 deaths;
- at the current global CMR those cases would result in 39,000 deaths;
- at our 'no aged care cases' CMR those 2.5M cases would result in 9,000 deaths.

Are they 'acceptable' levels?

Of course, that's a worst case scenario because there is no certainty in saying that those 1.8M people would all get infected eventually but then if we optimistically say that only 10% of them get infected do the revised numbers make any better reading?

- at our current CMR those cases would result in 5,300 deaths;
- at the current global CMR those cases would result in 3,900 deaths;
- at our 'no aged care cases' CMR those 2.5M cases would result in 900 deaths.

On the plus side, that latter number is close to what we've had in the last 18 months so perhaps that is a pill we can swallow in order to have a new 'normal'?

To my mind, the danger of that approach is the more pessimistic outlook.

What if we got a variant like Delta+ that was more infectious and against which the existing vaccines (except ironically AZ) aren't very effective? That would result in higher case numbers over a shorter time period and raise the question about the health care system coping and likely lead to more infections and higher mortality rates.

It's a vexed question but I suspect we'll take a pre-cautious approach until we do have higher vaccination levels and some purpose built quarantine facilities and I don't have any real issue with that approach.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by russellw

I think we are well at the 'acceptable' level of cases and mortality numbers in our current state but it is difficult to extrapolate what would happen in the event that we tried to return to 'normal' with no lockdowns, international travel reasonably unrestricted etc, etc.

Let's postulate that: (1) 90% of the adult population get vaccinated; (2) those vaccines are completely effective; and (3) we don't get a more deadly strain of the virus. Thus only 10% of the adult population (1.8M people) would be at risk of getting infected at some point in time:

- at our current CMR those cases would result in 53,300 deaths;
- at the current global CMR those cases would result in 39,000 deaths;
- at our 'no aged care cases' CMR those 2.5M cases would result in 9,000 deaths.

Are they 'acceptable' levels?

Of course, that's a worst case scenario because there is no certainty in saying that those 1.8M people would all get infected eventually but then if we optimistically say that only 10% of them get infected do the revised numbers make any better reading?

- at our current CMR those cases would result in 5,300 deaths;
- at the current global CMR those cases would result in 3,900 deaths;
- at our 'no aged care cases' CMR those 2.5M cases would result in 900 deaths.

On the plus side, that latter number is close to what we've had in the last 18 months so perhaps that is a pill we can swallow in order to have a new 'normal'?

To my mind, the danger of that approach is the more pessimistic outlook.

What if we got a variant like Delta+ that was more infectious and against which the existing vaccines (except ironically AZ) aren't very effective? That would result in higher case numbers over a shorter time period and raise the question about the health care system coping and likely lead to more infections and higher mortality rates.

It's a vexed question but I suspect we'll take a pre-cautious approach until we do have higher vaccination levels and some purpose built quarantine facilities and I don't have any real issue with that approach.

I wonder what those 10% who don't (refuse to) get vaccinated would think? Lots of those don't believe and want to open up too.

In my world they had exercised their right to back their immune system, to not trust doctors and science, but trust their google searching. But they do not have a right to change my life for the foreseeable future.

There is a way out, I don't stop people smoking..............I wish them luck and good health! But it is their choice Russ!

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by tweeked

I wonder what those 10% who don't (refuse to) get vaccinated would think? Lots of those don't believe and want to open up too.



In my world they had exercised their right to back their immune system, to not trust doctors and science, but trust their google searching. But they do not have a right to change my life for the foreseeable future.



There is a way out, I don't stop people smoking..............I wish them luck and good health! But it is their choice Russ!

What if there are more than 10%? What if there are more anti / hesitant vaxxers than the threshold that will be set to lift restrictions interesting times ahead.

[FPV8U]

Originally Posted by russellw

I think we are well at the 'acceptable' level of cases and mortality numbers in our current state but it is difficult to extrapolate what would happen in the event that we tried to return to 'normal' with no lockdowns, international travel reasonably unrestricted etc, etc.

Let's postulate that: (1) 90% of the adult population get vaccinated; (2) those vaccines are completely effective; and (3) we don't get a more deadly strain of the virus. Thus only 10% of the adult population (1.8M people) would be at risk of getting infected at some point in time:

- at our current CMR those cases would result in 53,300 deaths;
- at the current global CMR those cases would result in 39,000 deaths;
- at our 'no aged care cases' CMR those 2.5M cases would result in 9,000 deaths.

Are they 'acceptable' levels?

Of course, that's a worst case scenario because there is no certainty in saying that those 1.8M people would all get infected eventually but then if we optimistically say that only 10% of them get infected do the revised numbers make any better reading?

- at our current CMR those cases would result in 5,300 deaths;
- at the current global CMR those cases would result in 3,900 deaths;
- at our 'no aged care cases' CMR those 2.5M cases would result in 900 deaths.

On the plus side, that latter number is close to what we've had in the last 18 months so perhaps that is a pill we can swallow in order to have a new 'normal'?

To my mind, the danger of that approach is the more pessimistic outlook.

What if we got a variant like Delta+ that was more infectious and against which the existing vaccines (except ironically AZ) aren't very effective? That would result in higher case numbers over a shorter time period and raise the question about the health care system coping and likely lead to more infections and higher mortality rates.

It's a vexed question but I suspect we'll take a pre-cautious approach until we do have higher vaccination levels and some purpose built quarantine facilities and I don't have any real issue with that approach.

Out of curiosity Russ, if said unvaccinated 10% of the population for the purpose of the experiment, consisted 100% of people under the age of 40 or 50, on current CMR based on Australian Data what would be the projected fatalities?

Originally Posted by tweeked

I wonder what those 10% who don't (refuse to) get vaccinated would think? Lots of those don't believe and want to open up too.

In my world they had exercised their right to back their immune system, to not trust doctors and science, but trust their google searching. But they do not have a right to change my life for the foreseeable future.

There is a way out, I don't stop people smoking..............I wish them luck and good health! But it is their choice Russ!

I don’t consider myself anti-vax, I’m in a position where with a young family I consider the unknowns in this situation, being long term safety data of either AZ, Pfizer, ect v the Covid situation where at my age and physical condition as feel confident my immune system will be beyond capable the statistics tell me it will.

For example if tomorrow a therapeutic was signed off as a preventative I’d be first at the chemist door in the morning, what’s the difference? I can stop taking one.

If that ends up restricting my international travel until things settle down then so be it.

I know some on here consider this a selfish position, each to there own I don’t plan on making a debate of it to change anyone’s mind.

[FairmontGS]

90% is pie in the sky thinking though. Even Aunty Glad is only aiming for 80% of the GSS' adult population and she knows that's a stretch. The future still looks gloomy to me unfortunately.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

90% is pie in the sky thinking though. Even Aunty Glad is only aiming for 80% of the GSS' adult population and she knows that's a stretch. The future still looks gloomy to me unfortunately.

It has to get to the point where everyone who wants the jab has had the option to get the 2 and the gloves are off, we cant stay this way for ever and it may take boosters etc ongoing but I cant see any other option.

Species adapt or die.

[T3rminator]

Would be also interesting to know the percentage of population who can't get jabbed due to medical reasons. Those are the ones who will cop it through no choice of their own.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Would be also interesting to know the percentage of population who can't get jabbed due to medical reasons. Those are the ones who will cop it through no choice of their own.

True, never thought of that. What will they do when international travel resumes and the carriers and countries require proof of vaccination?

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

True, never thought of that. What will they do when international travel resumes and the carriers and countries require proof of vaccination?

I would guess they would have some sort of exemption on their "passport". They would need to take a calculated risk when travelling.

So far I only know of one person who is in this category, my 90 odd year old neighbour. She ain't scared though, I see her dragging her trolley bag to the local shops all the time.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

True, never thought of that. What will they do when international travel resumes and the carriers and countries require proof of vaccination?

not be allowed on the plane I'd say.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

not be allowed on the plane I'd say.

I hope that's not the case for genuine people, however I assume any type of exemption will be exploited by the anti-vaxers.

Can an alternative vaccination medium be used I wonder? I recall that they use egg proteins to help deliver some vaccinations and that if you are allergic to eggs that could be a cause to being intolerant to getting that vaccination.

Can an alternate type of vaccination be made for those people I wonder?

Found this:

COVID-19 vaccines and allergy
Additional precautions are recommended for individuals with possible allergic reactions to a previous dose of a COVID-19 vaccine; allergic reactions to ingredients in the COVID-19 vaccine to be administered (including PEG in Comirnaty™ and Polysorbate 80 in COVID-19 AstraZeneca®); prior anaphylactic reactions to other vaccines or medications where PEG or Polysorbate 80 may have been the cause; or a known systemic mast cell activation disorder with raised mast cell tryptase that has required treatment.

In these instances a specialist review by an immunology/allergy/vaccination specialist to undertake a risk/benefit assessment to assess suitability for vaccination should be undertaken.

For all other allergies, including those with a history of anaphylaxis to food, drugs, venom or latex, it is recommended a routine observation period of 15 minutes following COVID-19 vaccination is observed.

https://mvec.mcri.edu.au/references/...iAAEgKyePD_BwE