Covid 19 -

[Tickford.]

Top 15 countries with a 14-day cumulative total of reported COVID-19 cases, per 100'000 population. Data is as of yesterday (26 September 2020).

India_____1'238'176
USA______592'690
Brazil_____402'304
Argentina__166'781
France____153'535
Spain_____150'155
Colombia__97'074
Russia____86'209
Peru______77'310
Israel_____73'883
UK_______64'103
Mexico____62'458
Iraq______59'191
Indonesia__56'582
Iran______43'146


Gives you an idea of which countries are currently in trouble with the virus. India is just out of control!

In comparison, China has had 288. And Australia 409.

[Fed]

Those numbers make no sense to me Tickford.
GPS co-ordinates? If that's the case then India is off the Planet.
100,000 Indians caught covid 1,238,176 times over 14 Days?
Oh well, I'm old and it's 4 AM here.

[cs123]

Originally Posted by Fed

Those numbers make no sense to me Tickford.
GPS co-ordinates? If that's the case then India is off the Planet.
100,000 Indians caught covid 1,238,176 times over 14 Days?
Oh well, I'm old and it's 4 AM here.

Replace the ' with ,

India 1,238,176

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:59 GMT September 27th, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting except for the Victorian 14 day moving averages.

24 new cases for Australia and 2 deaths so the CMR rises to 3.222% while active cases rise to 1,595. NSW recorded no cases for the first time since July 3rd (85 days); Queensland recorded 1, WA recorded 7 cases and the balance were in Victoria.

The Victorian State 14 day moving average is now 23.93 with metro at 20.3 (31 unknown) and regional at 0.6 and no unknown cases. Victoria reported 5 new cases for the last 24 hours.

2 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.364% and active cases drop to 59.

The UK had 5,692 new cases yesterday. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore those figures.

Just over 43k new cases in the USA yesterday and 737 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.870% and active cases drop to 35.0% with the raw numbers falling slightly. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global deaths pass the 1M mark;
India passes 6M cases;
The USA completes 104M, India 71M, Russia 45M, Italy 11M and Turkey 10M tests;

Only the Netherlands (2,995) recorded a new daily high; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[naddis01]

Originally Posted by Fed

Those numbers make no sense to me Tickford.
GPS co-ordinates? If that's the case then India is off the Planet.
100,000 Indians caught covid 1,238,176 times over 14 Days?
Oh well, I'm old and it's 4 AM here.

I don't get it either.

Does it mean in India on average 88441 people per 100000 have caught Covid over the last 14 days?

1238176/14 = 88441

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by naddis01

I don't get it either.

You & Me Both...

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by 78xcgxl

I love it when people compare the labor party to communism. What a joke and poor argument, do you even know what communism is bud? The point i was merely trying to make is that a state divided, is a state defeated. It is a health pandemic, not an opportunity for scoring political points. Pretty sad really, that people feel the need to politicise a world wide pandemic. It just goes to show how low people are willing to go. Calling for heads, and minsters to resign is just going to create unnecessary chaos in an already delicate situation, let the pandemic end before starting a political war that ends in nothing but boarder public losing and virus winning. The government and Victorian community needs to focus together on fighting the pandemic not the political crap. There is a place and time for that. What is done in the past is done, nothing can change that but what happens in the future we can. It is all about the bigger picture, some people need to open their eyes.

So pollies should not be held accountable for their incompetence, that resulted in over 700 people dying?

Ok then

[russellw]

Originally Posted by naddis01

I don't get it either.

Does it mean in India on average 88441 people per 100000 have caught Covid over the last 14 days?

1238176/14 = 88441

In an effort to clarify.

Over the last 14 days to 26/9, India has recorded 1,238,725 cases (the highest of any country). The Indian population is 1.38 Billion (roughly) so that's 89.64 cases per 100k in that 14 day span so I think that table is looking at total cases not cases per 100k.

Here is the rest of that table (up to the 26th), sorted into the right order with a few (in blue) added:

Israel: 74,378 cases; 8.7M population; 856.3 / 100k
Argentina: 156,003 cases; 156M population; 345.17 / 100k
France: 153,535 cases; 65.2M population; 235.2 / 100k
Peru: 76,912 cases; 32.9M population; 233.66 / 100k
Moldova: 7,820 cases; 4.03M population; 193.85 / 100k
Spain: 89,433 cases (to the 25th); 46.7M population; 191.3 / 100k
Colombia: 97,074 cases; 50.9M population; 190.78 / 100k
Brazil: 403,949 cases; 212M population; 190.04 / 100k
USA: 610,960 cases; 331M population; 184.6 / 100k
Lebanon: 11,573 cases; 6.8M population; 169.56 / 100k
Netherlands: 27,619 cases; 17.1M population; 161.2 / 100k
Iraq: 59,246 cases; 40.2M population; 147.3 / 100k
Hungary: 11,252 cases; 9.6M population; 116.5 / 100k
UAE: 11,769 cases; 9.8M population; 118.99 / 100k
Denmark: 6,637 cases; 5.79M population; 114.58 / 100k
Ukraine: 43,907 cases; 43.7M population; 100.39 / 100k
Romania: 18,849 cases; 19.2M population; 97.9 / 100k
UK: 64,103 cases; 67.8M population; 94.4 / 100k
India: 1,238,725 cases; 1.3B population; 89.64 / 100k
Russia: 86,209 cases; 145.9M population; 59.0 / 100k
Iran: 43,146 cases; 83.9M population; 51.36 / 100k
Mexico: 62,569 cases; 128M population; 48.5 / 100k
Poland: 12,330 cases; 37.8M population; 32.58 / 100k
Indonesia: 56,593 cases; 273.5M population; 20.7 / 100k

[naddis01]

Originally Posted by russellw

... so I think that table is looking at total cases not cases per 100k...

That is what I thought but he had the per 100k in bold.

[Sprintey]

Thanks to Russ for all the charts
especially the 'tests per detected case' - Australia has done very well with testing

How did the South Koreans or Taiwanese go? SK had an outbreak of size so it would be interesting to compare - Taiwan got the lid on it early as of SARS experience...

[Tickford.]

Originally Posted by russellw

I think that table is looking at total cases not cases per 100k.

Correct. My bad. It was the total number of confirmed cases in the 14 days leading up to 26th September. Not per 100'000 as I stated.

I was looking at a totally different chart and got myself mixed up. Apologise.

[asagaai]

Here is an article by Professor Swan at UNSW about the financial impact of a further lockdown due to Covid 19 in NSW and the effects on property and liquidations of companies as a result.

His line is that NSW cannot afford another lockdown for a pandemic that relatively speaking is rather innocuous insofar as pandemics go.

Sort of a similar view to Romulus with rather less of the vitriolic edge.

https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/bu...uring-pandemic

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by asagaai

Here is an article by Professor Swan at UNSW about the financial impact of a further lockdown due to Covid 19 in NSW and the effects on property and liquidations of companies as a result.

His line is that NSW cannot afford another lockdown for a pandemic that relatively speaking is rather innocuous insofar as pandemics go.

Sort of a similar view to Romulus with rather less of the vitriolic edge.

I can't agree with Professor Swan that this is some localised problem or your assesement that 'relatively speaking is rather innocuous insofar as pandemics go.'

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:47 GMT September 28th, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting except for the Victorian 14 day moving averages.

4 new cases for Australia and 3 deaths so the CMR rises to 3.235% while active cases drop to 1,493. All recorded cases were in Victoria.

The Victorian State 14 day moving average is now 21.79 with metro at 18.2 (27 unknown) and regional at 0.6 and no unknown cases. Victoria reported 10 new cases for the last 24 hours.

No new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.364% and active cases drop to 55.

The UK had 4,044 new cases yesterday, an improvement on last week. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore those figures.

Just over 36.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 276 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.860% and active cases drop to 34.9% with the raw numbers rising slightly. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
The USA completes 105M, UK 24M and Spain 12M test;

None of the countries we watch recorded a new daily high; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[asagaai]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

I can't agree with Professor Swan that this is some localised problem or your assesement that 'relatively speaking is rather innocuous insofar as pandemics go.'

Not my view- what I perceived Professor Swan to be saying.

Just thought I would post the article which provides another perspective. I also do not agree that covid 19 is a mild or innocuous pandemic, but next year will be the acid test for our economy in terms of housing, homelessness, and business wind ups.

There are so many zombie companies that are insolvent and dead, but do not know it yet due to jobkeeper etc.

[russellw]

Following on from the 14 day cases per 100k of yesterday, there are a few other countries in the 200+ club including: Bahrain (522); Costa Rica (321); Czechia (200.3) and Panama (210).

There are also several in the 100-199 bracket, including: Kuwait (199.2); Belgium (178.8); Oman (153.4); Palestine (152.1); Paraguay (143); Libya (141.1); Bangladesh (126.9); Armenia (121.7); Chile (121.4); Qatar (115.8); Austria (109.8); Romania (102.7) and Bosnia (102.6).

By way of comparison, the Australian 14 day total is 352 cases for 3.3 cases / 100k and even during the worst 14-day period we have had when we recorded 6,750 cases between 26th July and 8th August, that was still only 63.75 cases / 100k.

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by asagaai

Not my view- what I perceived Professor Swan to be saying.

Just thought I would post the article which provides another perspective. I also do not agree that covid 19 is a mild or innocuous pandemic, but next year will be the acid test for our economy in terms of housing, homelessness, and business wind ups.

There are so many zombie companies that are insolvent and dead, but do not know it yet due to jobkeeper etc.

They interviewed many small business owners and people that have lost there jobs on Four Corners last night......
https://iview.abc.net.au/show/four-c.../NC2003H034S00

The economic signs for next year do not look promising........

[buggerlugs]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-...harts/12710378

We have hit a million deaths world wide.........

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by asagaai

Not my view- what I perceived Professor Swan to be saying.

Just thought I would post the article which provides another perspective. I also do not agree that covid 19 is a mild or innocuous pandemic, but next year will be the acid test for our economy in terms of housing, homelessness, and business wind ups.

There are so many zombie companies that are insolvent and dead, but do not know it yet due to jobkeeper etc.

It is all relative. No matter how some want it to sound like hemorrhagic fever, the reality is the disease itself is relatively innocuous, but highly contagious. The amount of infections make it dangerous, rather than the seriousness of the disease. Imagine 27000 cases of Ebola in Australia with a mortality rate close to 50%.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by tweeked

It is all relative. No matter how some want it to sound like hemorrhagic fever, the reality is the disease itself is relatively innocuous, but highly contagious. The amount of infections make it dangerous, rather than the seriousness of the disease. Imagine 27000 cases of Ebola in Australia with a mortality rate close to 50%.

Not sure of your point, Ebola killed about 11000.

Covid 19 has killed 1 million so far and we are nowhere near the end of it, hardly innocuous?

The northern hemisphere is going into colder weather could see huge outbreaks.

[Citroënbender]

It’s going to be a long two weeks’ quarantine in the Sheraton for my dearest.

She’s already chewed me out for no welcome-back booze parcel and now there is a near-meltdown because the east European SIM was put in her phone without the holding tray - and now she can’t extract it to reinstall the Aussie one.

I’m confident that if home isolation was an offer, it would have been (1.) breached for alcohol, and (2.) breached for phone repairs. And it’s only the second night back!

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

Not sure of your point, Ebola killed about 11000.

Covid 19 has killed 1 million so far and we are nowhere near the end of it, hardly innocuous?

The northern hemisphere is going into colder weather could see huge outbreaks.

The point is there are two parts to a disease, the way it reacts and spreads in the community, and what it is like when you contract it. The point was being made about the virus’s affect on one individual, it is on average mild with vast majority of the time. If you were forced to choose, would you choose Ebola or Covid? Innocuous is probably the wrong word, but so many people have no or mild symptoms when positive for Covid, means that you have to say it’s symptoms for most people are mild. But this is also why it spreads so rampantly, many people who think they just have a sore throat can spread a disease that is extremely dangerous to the elderly. I don’t think you will get many people going out shopping or to work with Ebola.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 23:59 GMT September 29th, 2020.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting except for the Victorian 14 day moving averages.

11 new cases for Australia and 7 deaths so the CMR rises to 3.260% while active cases rise to 1,497. NSW recorded 1 case, WA had 8 with the balance in Victoria.

The Victorian State 14 day moving average is now 19.5 with metro at 16.4 (21 unknown) and regional at 0.3 and no unknown cases. Victoria reported 13 new cases for the last 24 hours.

2 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.361% and active cases remain at 55.

The UK had 7,143 new cases yesterday, the highest since April 9th. We know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines so we are going to ignore the CMR but even using their method they had 71 deaths yesterday.

Just under 38k new cases in the USA yesterday and 355 deaths sees CMR drop to 2.850% and active cases drop to 34.5% with the raw numbers falling. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
The USA completes 106M, India 73M and Nepal 1M tests;
South America passes 8M cases;
South America passes 250k deaths;

Only the Netherlands (3,011) recorded a new daily high; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

How did the South Koreans or Taiwanese go? SK had an outbreak of size so it would be interesting to compare - Taiwan got the lid on it early as of SARS experience...

South Korea hasn't done all that well. They had a relatively mild first wave but never really got it down and it just sort of hung around for 4 months until the second and much larger wave hit in mid August. They have a total of 23,699 cases causing 407 deaths for a CMR of 1.7% as well as 46 cases & 0.8 deaths per 100k of population. They have tested 4.5% of the population.



We don't watch Taiwan that closely but they look to have had not much impact with a total of 500 cases with 5 deaths for a CMR of 1.36% as well as 2 cases & 0.02 deaths / 100k of population. Having said that, they have only tested 0.4% of the population.

Using Australia as a comparison, we have a CMR of 3.26% and 106 cases & 3.4 deaths / 100k of population. We have tested 29.7% of the population.

[Citroënbender]

It’s interesting how Tasmania seems to be largely off the news “radar”, in terms of their strictures upon incoming Australians from other states. I wonder if it’s too good an earner for them to drop soon - no idea on incoming numbers.

[falcon_bandit]

Originally Posted by russellw

We have tested 29.7% of the population.

Not a chance

[PG2]

Originally Posted by falcon_bandit

Not a chance

Ok, I'll bite. What makes you know that 29.7% tested is not correct.

If you are thinking about quoting twitter, Facebook etc don't even bother replying.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by falcon_bandit

Not a chance

To be strictly accurate, we have conducted 7.5M tests which represents roughly a third of our total population, however a number of those who have been tested will have had more than one test. It's the same for all countries so the comparison is still valid.

[Citroënbender]

Exactly, one hospital worker I know is tested every few days, as are his colleagues.

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by asagaai

Not my view- what I perceived Professor Swan to be saying.

Just thought I would post the article which provides another perspective. I also do not agree that covid 19 is a mild or innocuous pandemic, but next year will be the acid test for our economy in terms of housing, homelessness, and business wind ups.

There are so many zombie companies that are insolvent and dead, but do not know it yet due to jobkeeper etc.

My opinion of dealing with this virus is similar to Alan Jones perspective, that is, as per what the PM said in March or April, 99% of people will get over this with minor to mild symptoms. We need to get this country opened up to get the economy going.

We can be in furious agreement though regarding the economic outlook for next year and the year after. We're going to see the consequence of government protecting the 1 percenters next year. Job Keeper and Seeker has artificially kept some sectors of the economy going, the party ends March 2021. It's going to be interesting indeed.

I'm following what the banks are warning about, not the hype perpetrated by the real estate sector and the FOMO mini housing boom going on in WA.