Covid 19 -

[russellw]

We are not (as I've said before) going to get a definitive answer on the long term impact of COVID19 for some time to come.

Such studies require both the passage of time (for long term impacts) and exhaustive testing that is both time consuming and expensive.

Somewhat ironically, we might get our best answer following the recent deaths / collapses of 3 college athletes (2 football, 1 basketball) who had all recovered from COVID19 and all of whom suffered a cardiac failure while playing or training.

One of those colleges already had a conditioning program that captured players cardiac and respiratory fitness levels and they are now conducting post recovery tests to compare with the pre-COVID history for the athletes in their program. It's not a huge study as there are only about 700 athletes involved but you can be fairly sure that it will be detailed and provide a useful guide to the short term impacts, whatever they might be.

Personally, I think there is probably some impact in much the same way as a dose of pneumonia has long term impacts and I suspect in some cases those impacts will shorten the lifespan of the individual.

There are just so many questions at the moment but the answers will probably impact the way a lot of things are done in the future, particularly with sportspeople.

Questions are already being raised about how soon an athlete should return to training after a 'recovery'; what level of testing is needed to ensure they are healthy enough to resume strenuous activity and does the passage of time impact their ability and I expect a number of research programs to focus on that initially.

For the broader community it is more difficult. Without a solid set of 'before' data in terms of cardiac and respiratory condition, it's impossible to obtain hard scientific data on the severity of any impact. Yes, you can gather anecdotal data as well as empirical data about the 'after' condition but that doesn't much help with assessing the degree of impact.

Mind you, the US college athletic studies will provide a somewhat slanted view as well. We are talking about individuals who are already at peak fitness levels anyway and the impact may be greater or lesser because of that.

THIS article from the Mayo clinic is at least thought provoking if a little short on hard data. If you want some further reading then follow some of the links in the 'references' section of that article. I found this one and this UK one particularly interesting.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by russellw

We are not (as I've said before) going to get a definitive answer on the long term impact of COVID19 for some time to come.

We'l know how serious the long term effects of CV are if/when insurance companies start listing it as a pre-existing condition and require people who have had CV to undergo additional medical screening.

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Would be interesting in those establishments in Mitchell, ACT.

Never been to ACT. What's in Mitchell?

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Never been to ACT. What's in Mitchell?

Knock shops..

RockWiz, there's Heaps More at Fyshwick though.... So i've been told..

[MITCHAY]

ACT CM clarified today that we are not in hard border mode hence why they are not locking it all up on all roads. Only those from declared hotspots are not allowed except if they have an exemption which explains a lot.

So basically they said that they will mix targeted measures with RBT styles measures. If you have a NSW plate don't be surprised if you get pulled over.

He also reiterated that the federal government were very clear in September that the ADF won't be sent to patrol borders so that is on the states and territories to manage. The ADF involvement is about hotel quarantine.

The current measures are about managing quarantine. We'd take more flights if we can subject to support for hotel quarantine and providing for outbreak with the ACT.

Singapore Airlines pulled out during Covid so we have no direct flights and the only other route was Qatar and it goes via Sydney so unless they bus them down we can't take anything. More repatriation flights being planned to land in ACT.

Trying to work it out with VIC but he said basically there is only so much they can do.

Originally Posted by T3rminator

We'l know how serious the long term effects of CV are if/when insurance companies start listing it as a pre-existing condition and require people who have had CV to undergo additional medical screening.



Never been to ACT. What's in Mitchell?

Originally Posted by hayseed

Knock shops..

RockWiz, there's Heaps More at Fyshwick though.... So i've been told..

Brothels, strip clubs, sex shops. No more fireworks though

[FairmontGS]

Interesting factoid is no ICU cases at all thus far for NSW this micro-wave. Better treatment or just that the elderly and infirm have been better protected?

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Interesting factoid is no ICU cases at all thus far for NSW this micro-wave. Better treatment or just that the elderly and infirm have been better protected?

The very accurate contact tracing probably as much as anything else.

When you look at all of the graphs comparing 1st wave and later waves looking at infections and deaths, the virus appears to have become way less dangerous. I don't think that is the case at all, we probably under diagnosed huge numbers of cases in the first months, then captured more, and now in Vic and NSW we are actively searching out likely cases, including many of the asymptomatic cases - you probable get the true caseload. And a truer indication of how the incredible infectiousness is the main weapon for covid. Allowed to go unhindered through the community it would be a disaster. Compared to covid, catching the flu is like catching a fly with chopsticks.

[russellw]

We looked at the models for the USA and UK yesterday so here are the models for global cases and mortalities.

The case graph shows a trend almost line-ball with the upper predictive line so an end of January global case total of ~104M.



The mortality model is also keeping pace with the upper predictive model and on target for ~2.2M by the end of this month.

[FairmontGS]

Qantas brings forward international flights to US and UK but pushes back Asian destinations

• Optimism surrounding the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has led Qantas to bring forward flights to the US and UK, to July 1
• A planned restart of flights to some Asian destinations has been pushed back by four months, also to July 1
• Flight schedules are likely to change again as airlines continue to respond to the pandemic

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-...-2021/13033788

If you're a betting type you can make a killing on a business class airfare late next year...

[Tickford.]

On the subject of gold standard contact tracing, how come NSW's reporting is different to the way other States and Territories are reporting? Are they using a different set of guidelines?

Example, NSW keeps removing locations after 14 days. Why? Do they think the location is virus free 14 day after the first known case?

Also, NSW does not report on 'Active Cases' in their daily updates?? Not even during their pressers do they mention active case numbers. I would have thought this is a vital bit of information? All other states do. You have to go digging to find that info for NSW.

BTW, last night, the original date of 22nd December reported as being the first contact date for BWS Berala was updated to 20th December. That now makes the story that a mate of the airport transport driver being case zero for the Berala cluster, null and void. The original story was that a mate of the airport worker who was infectious, visited the Berala BWS on the 22nd of December, and infected a store attendant, who infected a fellow attendant on the same day. So who is case zero for the Berala cluster then?? It definitely can't be the mate of the airport worker now. No info has been released on this so far.

Then yesterday, it was zero community cases, but there's two we'll tell you about tomorrow?? I understand the 8pm cycle, but if you are aware of the cases for that particular day at 11am the following day, then why not report it? Why wait for another 24 hours to report a case you were aware of 38 hours prior? Is it because a zero sounds better than a two?

[Beastie]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

On the subject of gold standard contact tracing, how come NSW's reporting is different to the way other States and Territories are reporting? Are they using a different set of guidelines?

Example, NSW keeps removing locations after 14 days. Why? Do they think the location is virus free 14 day after the first known case?

Also, NSW does not report on 'Active Cases' in their daily updates?? Not even during their pressers do they mention active case numbers. I would have thought this is a vital bit of information? All other states do. You have to go digging to find that info for NSW.

BTW, last night, the original date of 22nd December reported as being the first contact date for BWS Berala was updated to 20th December. That now makes the story that a mate of the airport transport driver being case zero for the Berala cluster, null and void. The original story was that a mate of the airport worker who was infectious, visited the Berala BWS on the 22nd of December, and infected a store attendant, who infected a fellow attendant on the same day. So who is case zero for the Berala cluster then?? It definitely can't be the mate of the airport worker now. No info has been released on this so far.

Then yesterday, it was zero community cases, but there's two we'll tell you about tomorrow?? I understand the 8pm cycle, but if you are aware of the cases for that particular day at 11am the following day, then why not report it? Why wait for another 24 hours to report a case you were aware of 38 hours prior? Is it because a zero sounds better than a two?

I think they are doing to keep you on your toes...

[Tickford.]

Originally Posted by Beastie

I think they are doing to keep you on your toes...

I'm onto them!


Having a close look at that gold, I reckon it's fools gold. Or highly polished brass.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

Example, NSW keeps removing locations after 14 days. Why? Do they think the location is virus free 14 day after the first known case?

You did miss a slightly important part here in that locations are removed when 14 days have passed since the last known date that a confirmed case was there. Not the first known.
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infect...nd-alerts.aspx

Originally Posted by Tickford.

Also, NSW does not report on 'Active Cases' in their daily updates?? Not even during their pressers do they mention active case numbers. I would have thought this is a vital bit of information? All other states do. You have to go digging to find that info for NSW.

Not really that hard to find, it's on the Covid 19 page!..... 192 active BTW.
https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by leesa

Just google it, I'm not going to spoon-feed you. If by this stage you haven't heard medical people talk what covid is doing to the body then I'm not sure you'll agree with any proof that I provide.

I’d tell you a covid 19 joke, but you’d 99.97% not get it.

But watch out for that falling sky chicken little.

Sure some people might have other side effects. But to say “most people” is utter crap. It’s no different to cases of regular flu, where some people have lingering effects.


Just seen that jeremy clarkson had covid. But he only had minor cold symptoms, and was fine after a couple of days.

[Metdevil]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Just seen that jeremy clarkson had covid. But he only had minor cold symptoms, and was fine after a couple of days.

Actually, he said he doesn't even know if he's better now.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Metdevil

Actually, he said he doesn't even know if he's better now.

Just going off the video he posted on IG this morning. Said he had what was like a cold, but he is fine now. His words, not mine.

[Tickford.]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

You did miss a slightly important part here in that locations are removed when 14 days have passed since the last known date that a confirmed case was there. Not the first known.
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infect...nd-alerts.aspx

Thanks, that's better.

Originally Posted by GasoLane

Not really that hard to find, it's on the Covid 19 page!..... 192 active BTW.
https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19

Knew that one, but NSW should include that in their daily reports. Just as everyone else are. Many won't bother digging further to find out.

How many NSW based members here check NSW Health's location list on a daily basis? How often do you check? Asking for a friend.

Also, who is case zero for BWS Berala now that the date has been revised to 20th December?

And who is case zero for the Northern Beaches?

There's rumours that it could be someone who was granted an exemption by NSW Government to travel to Sydney from the USA. They were also granted exemption from hotel quarantine to go home and quarantine. No Covid test upon arrival. Must be someone very important if they were granted all these exemptions.

[cs123]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

Thanks, that's better.


Knew that one, but NSW should include that in their daily reports. Just as everyone else are. Many won't bother digging further to find out.

How many NSW based members here check NSW Health's location list on a daily basis? How often do you check? Asking for a friend.

Also, who is case zero for BWS Berala now that the date has been revised to 20th December?

And who is case zero for the Northern Beaches?

There's rumours that it could be someone who was granted an exemption by NSW Government to travel to Sydney from the USA. They were also granted exemption from hotel quarantine to go home and quarantine. No Covid test upon arrival. Must be someone very important if they were granted all these exemptions.

Is he a rotund jolly fellow? Who is arguably good with numbers?

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

How many NSW based members here check NSW Health's location list on a daily basis? How often do you check? Asking for a friend.

No idea, never check and don't care

Originally Posted by Tickford.

Also, who is case zero for BWS Berala now that the date has been revised to 20th December?

As above

Originally Posted by Tickford.

And who is case zero for the Northern Beaches?

Ditto

Originally Posted by Tickford.

There's rumours that it could be someone who was granted an exemption by NSW Government to travel to Sydney from the USA. They were also granted exemption from hotel quarantine to go home and quarantine. No Covid test upon arrival. Must be someone very important if they were granted all these exemptions.

Hmm, the rumour I heard was that it was someone from Vic as payback for NSW people picking on Uncle Dan.


If you want 'rumours' without proof I can start more than Trump!

[Tickford.]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

Hmm, the rumour I heard was that it was someone from Vic as payback for NSW people picking on Uncle Dan.

You might be right. I saw that headline as well!

The Australian 02/01/2021:

[CoupeKing]

[Tickford.]

Just seen some footage of a Covid ward in Egypt. They ran out of oxygen in the hospital, and all patients have died. Very confronting footage, nurses curled into ball on the floor, against walls balling their eyes out.. Very, very sad situation.

Thank goodness we in Australia have been spared this craziness. So far.

[MITCHAY]

It's pretty funny all the flack that NSW is copping. They may well end up being a massive cluster **** but is not yet supported by the data.

NSW has a long way before they even catch up, let alone be worst

Let's keep things in perspective. In LA they are basically saying you're ****ed if you require oxygen since they don't have enough.

****en oxygen in the worlds richest country that they constantly tell us they have the best health system.

[Citroënbender]

I wouldn’t agree with “funny” but many reactions by other states against NSW are a bit sad. I laud the Northern Territory for maintaining what seems a balance of caution and due reaction.

Here’s one situation of border inflexibility that’s pretty horrible. If you’ve been badly affected by a miscarriage, please consider not reading it.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-...r-ban/13030750

[Tickford.]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

It's pretty funny all the flack that NSW is copping. They may well end up being a massive cluster **** but is not yet supported by the data.

That's the key point. The data.

As long as there's no one in charge experienced with a document shredder, we should be getting the true numbers and the true data.

For example, being honest and letting the public know that children under 12 have proven not to be carriers or transmitters of the disease.

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

That's the key point. The data.

As long as there's no one in charge experienced with a document shredder, we should be getting the true numbers and the true data.

For example, being honest and letting the public know that children under 12 have proven not to be carriers or transmitters of the disease.

The data says right now that VIC has 4x the amount of cases and 15+x the amount of deaths compared to NSW in totality.

Whatever is going on now is not even comparable. Chalk and cheese. It may end up being bigger but it aint at the moment. Given that it has been a huge overreaction.

[Tickford.]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

The data says right now that VIC has 4x the amount of cases....

See, this is why NSW needs to change the way they report the daily numbers.

FYI, right now, VIC has 41 cases of the NSW virus, and NSW has 196 cases of the NSW virus.

Here are some examples of the data released on most social media platforms by some of the states:

South Australia:


Queensland:


VIC:


NSW:


No active case numbers on NSW's reports. When dealing with an outbreak, the current active cases is critical rather than historical. Current active cases are the ones who can spread it to others. Not the ones that have recovered.

[Beastie]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

See, this is why NSW needs to change the way they report the daily numbers.

FYI, right now, VIC has 41 cases of the NSW virus, and NSW has 196 cases of the NSW virus.

Here are some examples of the data released on most social media platforms by some of the states:

South Australia:
image

Queensland:
image

VIC:
image

NSW:
image

No active case numbers on NSW's reports. When dealing with an outbreak, the current active cases is critical rather than historical. Current active cases are the ones who can spread it to others. Not the ones that have recovered.

Have you seen this site?

https://www.health.gov.au/news/healt...d-case-numbers

Looks quite informative and up to date to me, including Active Cases in NSW?

[zilo]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

For example, being honest and letting the public know that children under 12 have proven not to be carriers or transmitters of the disease.

What proof is there of under 12 not being carriers?

Does Covid-19 know that it is sitting on top of a 12 year old's hand?

[EgoFG]

OK, here is a working theory
(please note I am not an expert, so this is really just farting in the wind)


What if the nature and severity of your symptoms were ALSO dependent on the nature of initial infection ?

Vomitting, diarrhea leading to dehydration: Initial infection through food or hand to mouth (a friend had this as her only symptom, and does not believe she was close to anyone symptomatic in the preceding 2 weeks.)

loss of sense of smell/Taste : inhaling through nose or hand to nose

Lung issues : deep inhalation (singing exercising)

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by EgoFG

OK, here is a working theory
(please note I am not an expert, so this is really just farting in the wind)

What if the nature and severity of your symptoms were ALSO dependent on the nature of initial infection ?

I think you are farting in the right direction. Correlation between initial viral load and severity of symptoms has been talked about previously. Could explain why the cases in NSW and VIC are currently quite mild i.e. people are still largely social distancing, working from home, and premises are keeping covid safe.

That could change when you add a few superspreader events in a short time frame e.g. Christmas Eve, NYE and Test matches. We'll know by end of Jan if we have dodged a bullet.