End of an era? Commodore predicted to be replaced by Compact SUV

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by jpd80

A slow down in coal mining is already happening, I wonder how our commodity basd dollar fairs with lower commodity prices.
Can you imagine what a lower dollar would do to petrol prices...$2.00/litre?

I take the view that Ford Australia will dig in and try to make Falcon last man standing, hopefully snare more market share...

What about LPG... there would be a surge in EcoLPi.

[aussie muscle]

Originally Posted by Falcman0o7

I do not see the end of commodore.

why would you stop making a car that is selling so well? maybe they are just planning for when cruze outsells commodore?

Ford can't really kill falcon until focus/mondeo numbers are high enough to replace it

[Kable72]

People have to almost stop buying these cars completely before they get rid of them. Sales may be lower than they once were, but they are still high enough for them to continue manufacture.

[flappist]

Originally Posted by Buntz

What about LPG... there would be a surge in EcoLPi.

LPG is a boutique fuel popular in a few small areas but is not particularly suitable in many others. Outside commercial use in cities it has had a very slow uptake. Quite simply as a private user if your primary focus is saving money then buying NEW as opposed to used or ex govt fleet will almost never be considered. Look how many of AFFs LPG fanatics have actualy bought a new EcoLpi despite them being available for well over a year now.

If the price of petrol does go bezerk I suspect the main trend will be toward smaller petrol engined vehicles which use less fuel rather than cheaper fuel.

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by Kable72

People have to almost stop buying these cars completely before they get rid of them. Sales may be lower than they once were, but they are still high enough for them to continue manufacture.

At a stand alone point (without government assistance), they become very unviable even at higher rates at which Ford is producing now.

Holden can have the two best selling cars in australia (ie the holden 3 and the holden hilux), and they still arent going to reach the 100,000 cars a year that Deveraux said makes it viable. The manufacturers have worked out that they bargain with the government for handouts based on making lots of cars, and then they end up getting the money and making alot less cars ($200 million for making 40,000 cars a year is twice as good as getting $200 million for making 80,000 cars a year. Thats how maintain some sense of viability.

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by flappist

LPG is a boutique fuel popular in a few small areas but is not particularly suitable in many others. Outside commercial use in cities it has had a very slow uptake. Quite simply as a private user if your primary focus is saving money then buying NEW as opposed to used or ex govt fleet will almost never be considered. Look how many of AFFs LPG fanatics have actualy bought a new EcoLpi despite them being available for well over a year now.

If the price of petrol does go bezerk I suspect the main trend will be toward smaller petrol engined vehicles which use less fuel rather than cheaper fuel.

That's really the Govs fault. If it were readily available... it would be taken up in more regional areas as well.


Anyway... to get back to the thread topic. I would laugh my bag out if Holden stopped making the Commodore. I wouldn't be able to stop myself from jeering every loser wearing their Holden HSV apparel.

But hope that they keep the plants open, but building no RWD saloon. Then us in camp blue would have won. The other alternative being... Holden build and badge engineer the Cadillac ATS. This will force Ford to make a lighter, more advanced Falcon, which could re-open debate of Falcon for export.

[WAR40T]

The way I interpreted this, just meant 2 similar Holden cars to be built in Australia. Similar size, Chassis, interior, drivetrains etc.

Doesnt actually mean the end of Commodore. It could mean the Commodore will be built along side other GM Chevrolet RWD platforms stateside and exported here.
We all know the Camaro is Commodore underneath, and that the VE was sold, VF soon to be sold as the GTO.

Theres positive and negative if it did come to this...
Negative, No more australia built commodore
Positive, Buyers wont need to replace the Holden badge with a Chev one.

[falconnut]

No the commo is deffinetly dead

[1TUFFUTE]

yep its dead. This is no rubbish run of the mill crap thats been dribbling from media desperates for years like its been forr the falcon. This about proves that the next commadore will be imported to aus from the states and the two cars built here will be from the same plant/line to keep costs down. Cruze and the SUV.

WOW and i thought the holden offerings(apart from hsvs) now were poor.

And as far as falcon...we could could have some awesome new global model/cross/varient possibly even mustang related....hear in aus badged the falcon. Because its a global platform hopefully it can be built here.

PERFECT.

[WAR40T]

Originally Posted by falconnut

No the commo is deffinetly dead

That really does suck if its true. I'm as blue blooded as most on here, but having no commodore in Australia really hits home. The falcon has been media "dead" for the past, what 10 years now? Then all of a sudden this. Hopefully the falcon can continue past 2018.

[Cobra]

Falcon dead in 2016 and Commodore dead in 2018. I don't see this changing from here. I just can't see an eleventh hour saviour to either of our iconic Australian products. Unfortunately this has been on the cards for sometime now. The market has shifted away from the mainstay product and manufacturers are amortising engineering costs by streamlining products with the intention of engineering one product for a global market instead of producing multiple region-specific products from the ground up.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by WAR40T

The way I interpreted this, just meant 2 similar Holden cars to be built in Australia. Similar size, Chassis, interior, drivetrains etc.

Doesnt actually mean the end of Commodore. It could mean the Commodore will be built along side other GM Chevrolet RWD platforms stateside and exported here.
We all know the Camaro is Commodore underneath, and that the VE was sold, VF soon to be sold as the GTO.

Theres positive and negative if it did come to this...
Negative, No more australia built commodore
Positive, Buyers wont need to replace the Holden badge with a Chev one.

The next Camaro will be based on a different platform, no longer the Commodores Zeta. And the VF will be sold as the Chevrolet SS, not a GTO as Pontiac no longer exists.

[OZQUAD44]

Impala SS is what the nascar boys talk about.

[burnz]

Originally Posted by OZQUAD44

Impala SS is what the nascar boys talk about.

cheville and impala.

[Brazen]

This one seems to suggest that the Commodore is likely. Could it be that Falcon and Commodore are coming out swinging?

http://www.caradvice.com.au/196632/h...car-confirmed/

Holden has confirmed the long-term future of the locally made Holden Cruze small car, but is refusing to disclose whether the Holden Commodore name will continue past the next-generation model.

The company has previously revealed it will produce two models at its Elizabeth plant in South Australia starting in the second half of this decade, but had not previously disclosed their identity.

Speaking at today’s Australian International Motor Show, Holden president Mike Devereux confirmed the Cruze is one of the two vehicles that has been assured a long-term future.

“I’ve been on the record to say we would be pretty stupid not to build a small car given how big that segment is,” Devereux said.

“We will be building the global Delta [Cruze] in our next-generation product line and we have yet to announce what that second line up is.”

Despite a series of questions, Devereux would not be drawn on the identity of the second car.

“I wasn’t even supposed to say what the first one was, but it was obvious we would be stupid not to build it.”



Devereux did confirm the company has locked in its decision.

“We obviously know what that second vehicle is going to be, we’re just not going to tell you,” he said.

Devereux did confirm the second car would not be the mid-sized Malibu sedan that will be slotted into the line-up just below Commodore next year.

When asked whether a Captiva-style SUV would be the best bet, Devereux appeared to suggest it was not likely.

“In order for us to make the Adelaide plant work economically, we have to pick two top 10 selling vehicles, there is no room for error,” he said.

“You have got to sell 1800 to 2000 cars every single month and when you talk about SUVs, and I’m not ruling it out, but the top selling SUV is the Mazda CX-5 at 1850 units in one of their best months. That is the best selling SUV. So, if you knocked it out of the park and made the best selling SUV in the country, four or five years ago from now, I imagine that would be 1800-1900 units.”



Devereux’s logic seems to suggest a larger car, possibly Commodore, might get the green light for long-term local production because it has less rivals than other contenders.

“The market has a lot of fragments, you have 80 SUV competitors, 40 small car competitors and 20 large car competitors, all told, luxury and non luxury. So, the more you have to compete with, the more risk there is to be able to get that 1500, 1800, 1900 [sales per month],” he said.

When asked specifically whether a large car like the Commodore could continue to sell in large volumes in several year’s time even though buyers are tending to move away from such cars, Devereux said:

“I think VF will answer a lot of those questions,” he said.

The VF Commodore is expected to run through to 2018.

Holden didn’t present any Commodores during the media presentation at the Sydney show, instead focusing on the Captiva 7 SUV, Cruze wagon and Malibu mid-sized sedan.

It says there will be much more attention given to the Commodore next year, with the arrival of the VF set for mid-year and a US export program set to kick off around the same time with a V8 model to be sold as a Chevrolet SS. The styling of the Chevrolet-badged model will be showcased for the first time when the body shell design is featured on the Chevrolet NASCARs that will be revealed at the Daytona 500 in February.

The next-generation Cruze is expected to be introduced globally in 2015, with Australian production expected to start in the same year. Holden is just about to begin work to prepare its production facility for the new model.

Devereux would not be drawn on whether there were any export plans for the Australian-made Cruze.

“I wouldn’t rule out anything but it would have a lot to do with the economic situation in relation to the dollar five years from now. A 70c dollar changes the whole equation and I can’t predict what the dollar is going to be in five years,” he said.

[jpd80]

Ever notice that Holden goes into panic mode when Commodore sales take a hit and not so much for Cruze?
I think that's a dead giveaway as to which model brings in the gravy, whatever replaces Commodore better be profitable.
I'm actually surprised that they picked the Cruze over Captiva or even Equinox as a second local product, SUVs are more profitable.

I don't think Cruze has been the mecca car or savior Holden thought it would be and I doubt Cruze II will do much better..
Equinox (LWB Captiva) with diesel and the SIDI 3.6 V6 would be a formidable vehicle, more so than Captiva..uggh that name..

[Brazen]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Ever notice that Holden goes into panic mode when Commodore sales take a hit and not so much for Cruze?
I think that's a dead giveaway as to which model brings in the gravy, whatever replaces Commodore better be profitable.
I'm actually surprised that they picked the Cruze over Captiva or even Equinox as a second local product, SUVs are more profitable.

I don't think Cruze has been the mecca car or savior Holden thought it would be and I doubt Cruze II will do much better..

Cruze is profitable and there is a big market, they whack them together and not have to worry about spending a billion developing it. Commodore has massive r&d costs associated with it, they need to be pumping out enough Commodores for it to remain viable. Look at the FG, they are selling about 14000 this year and it took 700 million to develop plus the 230 million on Ecoboost and EcoLpi - the locally developed cars need to keep the volume pumping. Hence why Cruze is an easy choice to keep making whereas a large car is more tricky because of the local development.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Brazen

Cruze is profitable and there is a big market, they whack them together and not have to worry about spending a billion developing it. Commodore has massive r&d costs associated with it, they need to be pumping out enough Commodores for it to remain viable. Look at the FG, they are selling about 14000 this year and it took 700 million to develop plus the 230 million on Ecoboost and EcoLpi - the locally developed cars need to keep the volume pumping. Hence why Cruze is an easy choice to keep making whereas a large car is more tricky because of the local development.

1. Cruze cost close to $450 million to set up, Holden got $149 million form the government.

Link
It has also spent more than $1.4 billion on research and development over the past five years and in February
started production of its Cruze small car with the help of $149 million in government funding and $450 million in
funding from General Motors.

2. The costs for FG 1 have already been paid for in 2008.
3. The costs for FG II and SZ territory were paid for last year, each vehicle cost Ford about $100M after Govt funding.
4. VF Commodore will cost Holden around $380 million next year.
5. 2014 Falcon and SZII will cost Ford approx $50 milllion a piece.

GM is clearly spending more on Commodore and Cruze than Ford is spending on Falcon and Territory.
But when you look at the amounts of revenue produced by all local vehicles, costs are really peanuts on pounds.

[pursuit2359]

If Holden need two high-selling vehicles, they could have a problem simply because of the quality and pricing of their product.

Does anybody seriously think the Cruze is as good as the Focus or Mazda3? Furthermore, there's a new Corolla just out and Pulsar around the corner. And that's not to even mention the Golf, Astra, Impreza and Accent/i30. Simply put, it's a saturated and fragmented market.

Logic suggests you need good product that's competitively priced (and/or good marketing). And producing the Cruze in Australia - and whatever else is to join it - puts it at a price disadvantage before the other factors are considered.

[Luke Plaizier]

Hasn't the $50M for next Falcon has already been debated in this and other threads?

Lukeyson

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by jpd80

1. Cruze cost close to $450 million to set up, Holden got $149 million form the government.

2. The costs for FG 1 have already been paid for in 2008.
3. The costs for FG II and SZ territory were paid for last year, each vehicle cost Ford about $100M after Govt funding.
4. VF Commodore will cost Holden around $380 million next year.
5. 2014 Falcon and SZII will cost Ford approx $50 milllion a piece.

GM is clearly spending more on Commodore and Cruze than Ford is spending on Falcon and Territory.
But when you look at the amounts of revenue produced by all local vehicles, costs are really peanuts on pounds.

Sounds like Ford is excited that their new Falcon will wow people enough to snatch them back from Holden.

I bloody hope so. There are still only two players in the large car market... and if they get back more sales... then it will be a viable car.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Buntz

Sounds like Ford is excited that their new Falcon will wow people enough to snatch them back from Holden.

I bloody hope so. There are still only two players in the large car market... and if they get back more sales... then it will be a viable car.

Don't get me wrong, VF will give Holden a massive lift next year and a lot of the criticisms leveled at VE will be gone.
So Ford needs to show people where Falcon is heading otherwise risk being lost in a tidal wave of VF fanfare.
And you can bt that the motoring journos will be quick to compare VF to the FGII so Ford needs to show then something
that's beyond it, something just around the corner so that the reviews and comparisons don't turn into Holden advertising.....

[Nikked]

Isn't VF due late 2013...2014?

[flooded one]

Originally Posted by Nikked

Isn't VF due late 2013...2014?

i think its late 2013

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by wildrider

i think its late 2013

I heard May 2013, reveal in USA is earlier in the year...

[flooded one]

Originally Posted by jpd80

I heard May 2013, reveal in USA is earlier in the year...

even sooner!! I'll make sure i wont read wheels magazine when it comes out!!!

[Brazen]

Originally Posted by jpd80

I heard May 2013, reveal in USA is earlier in the year...

I think it has been pulled forward to February 2013, we will get a first taste in the US next month.

[bigwil]

My prediction Wheels mag car of the year VF commodore

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Brazen

I think it has been pulled forward to February 2013, we will get a first taste in the US next month.

That's just the NASCAR racer version of the car, I don't think the fibreglass stylized shell will tell you that much.
February 2013 was supposed to be the official reveal of the Chevrolet SS with production starting several months after.

[Nikked]

Im genuinely surprised that the VF wasn't showen at the motor show, would have caught some attention.