Government insider reckons Ford's local ops are gone in 2016

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

And I still think Holden are stupid for spending so much on VF, I highly doubt it will do much to put a stop to the sales slide. It might initially but within 6-12 months it will keep sinking once the novelty of a new Commodore wears off and people continue moving on to SUV's, dual cabs and smaller cars.

One thing that is glaring in my eyes is Ford have bugger all capability of building an all new model, the engineering divisions responsible for getting cars into production are basically all gone now, as well as the tool room. The stamping and structures engineering section my dad worked in has one guy left out of the 20+ they had a few years ago. And a lot of these skills are specific jobs that require specific training by Ford to do, you can't just hire engineers fresh out of university to do them.

Stamping and tooling has changed so much these days, I would expect that FoA could order a set of stamps
from elsewhere at a fraction of the cost, especially now that build processes are being aligned.

[Nikked]

Compare the VF with the FU...

VF had 500m spent on it for a major facelift and a raft of technology changes...

FU so far:

-Ford have announced around $100m for safety and efficiency alone, and have updated the local facilities to allow more global technology in our Falcon.

-We know that i will have a new front end, thanks to the AIMS reveal, and some in the know have suggested that the rear end will include some major changes. So, it looks like the Falcon will get a fair bit of money spent on it, probably a fair bit more for a car that is just going to hang around for a few more years as suggested.


I don't see how spending unnecessary amounts on a factory or car that these "Insiders and analysts" seem to think are not going to be here at the end of 2016.

[Terry Turbo]

A friend's son works for Ford in China now (previously Thailand and Broadmeadows). He says the closing date is all but fixed and Taurus will be our choice in 2017.

Yay...... not.

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by Terry Turbo

A friend's son works for Ford in China now (previously Thailand and Broadmeadows). He says the closing date is all but fixed and Taurus will be our choice in 2017.

Yay...... not.

Who will build the RHD Taurus and Territory replacement?

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by Terry Turbo

A friend's son works for Ford in China now (previously Thailand and Broadmeadows). He says the closing date is all but fixed and Taurus will be our choice in 2017.

Yay...... not.

O rly.

Taurus fans are going to be bitterly disappointed then.

[Mercury 8]

So third hand news confirms we get the Taurus! He probably follows Dowling on twitter.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Terry Turbo

A friend's son works for Ford in China now (previously Thailand and Broadmeadows). He says the closing date is all but fixed and Taurus will be our choice in 2017.

Yay...... not.

Rumor were that was a choice before the 2014 car was approved...

Just my opinion:
The cost of developing a RHD Taurus and Explorer has to be born by Ford Australia but guess what,
the cost of doing that and closing down Broady is more than likely greater than evolving Falcon and Territory.

[minheim]

If the VF is the last full size and/or rwd commodore; is there an option to keep the next falcon going beyong 2016 as a full size and rear drive (using Ecoboost and maybe diesel; I'm assuming the inline 6 won't meet emissions and a v6 update would cost more than adopting the territory diesel). If the territory is still selling well and generating good profit per unit why not hang the falcon off it and see if it can be a profitable niche for those two models using lots of ford global dna while picking up some traditional commodore sales. Maybe they could put the ecoboost in the territory as well. I'm assuming the absence of a traditional competitor might let the falcon skimp a bit on a major body update.

[Elks]

Originally Posted by BroadyFord

What do people make of this?

What do we do if Ford goes?


http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/pol...224-2ezgl.html

Probably the standout initiative in the plan is the proposal for 10 world-class ''innovation precincts''. The first will be a manufacturing precinct based in south-east Melbourne and Adelaide, and the second a food precinct based in Melbourne.
[/B]

Amongst he many concerning things in that article, including Fords silence on this issue. Is the fact they are looking to spend money on a manufacturing precinct in the South East when the majority of manufacturing is in the North and west. (Yes I know there are factory's in the south east but said majority.). The cynical would say that's where the are a lot of marginal seats.

[FGII-XR6]

what a shock, another the falcon is dead thread there hasn't been one of those closed for a few days now

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Could it be that these engineering divisions are located somewhere else? You've got a huge engineering division there somewhere for developing vehicles like the T6 program (the SUV for starters) as well as the 2014 Falcon.

These are production engineers i'm talking about, the ones who take the design of the part and install the tooling, robots, fixtures etc for the part to be produced in the plant.

They're all pretty much gone, most took packages and the rest got canned when all the work dried up. Its a totally seperate division to Product Engineering, they just engineer the actual cars themselves, they aren't responsible for getting it into production like stamping and structures engineering was.

Falcon could easily continue on past 2016 with emission compliant engines, but seriously how long can it continue to run for and still sell enough to keep going? Ford have never kept platforms going for more than 10 years without doing a complete refresh. Thats makes it to 2018. Then what?

[Falco GT51]

Long live the Falcon! I'm saying Bull to Falcon gone in 2016 and to anyone that will listen!
I will believe it when hear it said by Ford AU!

[DanielXR8]

Originally Posted by Nikked

Since when have Ford said they are closing down operations? Oh thats right, just more dribble...

Since when did the article claim Ford said anything? Did you read it?

This was a report looking at what analysts believed could happen in 2016.

Of course planning and discussion around Ford and their place post 2016 in Australia would be taking place.

I'm sure many on here will be whining really loudly come 2016 if the governments response to a Ford closure was "Who knew? We certainly never thought about it".

[2011G6E]

If it's unsustainable and can't stand on it's own two feet without huge government subsidies, then why keep pouring money into it? Sorry, but there's nothing magical about being able to make a car in your country...plenty of countries exist just fine without making their own cars...look at Canada amongst others.

[DanielXR8]

Originally Posted by 2011G6E

If it's unsustainable and can't stand on it's own two feet without huge government subsidies, then why keep pouring money into it? Sorry, but there's nothing magical about being able to make a car in your country...plenty of countries exist just fine without making their own cars...look at Canada amongst others.

Actually Canada makes a large variety of cars. They have a much larger and healthier car industry then us and yes, they subsidise theirs too. Having helped bail out GM and giving special concessions to Ford over the years for example.

List of vehicles taken from http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/auto-au...g/am02365.html

Vehicles made in Canada 2012
Acura CSX
Acura MDX
Acura ZDX
Buick Regal
Chevrolet Camaro
Chevrolet Equinox
Chevrolet Impala
Chrysler 300
Chrysler Town & Country
Dodge Charger
Dodge Challenger
Dodge Grand Caravan
Ford Edge
Ford Flex
GMC Terrain
Honda Civic Coupe
Honda Civic Sedan
Honda CR-V
Lexus RX 350
Lincoln MKT
Lincoln MKX
Mercury Grand Marquis
Toyota Corolla
Toyota Matrix
Toyota RAV4
VW Routan

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by 2011G6E

If it's unsustainable and can't stand on it's own two feet without huge government subsidies, then why keep pouring money into it? Sorry, but there's nothing magical about being able to make a car in your country...plenty of countries exist just fine without making their own cars...look at Canada amongst others.

Are you serious. Ford's Windsor plant is there isn't it? Not to mention heaps of other Ford plants, cause it's just across the border from Detroit.

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

These are production engineers i'm talking about, the ones who take the design of the part and install the tooling, robots, fixtures etc for the part to be produced in the plant.

They're all pretty much gone, most took packages and the rest got canned when all the work dried up. Its a totally seperate division to Product Engineering, they just engineer the actual cars themselves, they aren't responsible for getting it into production like stamping and structures engineering was.

Falcon could easily continue on past 2016 with emission compliant engines, but seriously how long can it continue to run for and still sell enough to keep going? Ford have never kept platforms going for more than 10 years without doing a complete refresh. Thats makes it to 2018. Then what?

The simple reality is that Ford Australia will never design and build another all-new, Australia only car; if they build anything after the Falcon and Territory go (that's if they go), it will be a global model. Which of course means the production engineering would have been done elsewhere, and contractors do all the installation of specific items of plant etc that any new model requires. They've probably got a global team of people that specialise in doing just that, after all, implementing an all-new car and all the tooling and plant changes that come with it is a once in 6-10 year thing - can a small outpost like Australia afford to have people like that on the payroll permanently?

As an aside, they must have someone still kicking around because the '14 Falcon will bring front and rear sheetmetal changes and possibly other changes under the skin. What is the process for implementing a mid-cycle update like say the 2014 car?

[Bossxr8]

If it's only bonnet and bootlid then its probably just the one guy who's left doing it. But then again you'd think they would be the easy parts to stamp, being done from a flat sheet of steel. Nowhere near as complex as a cowl or whatever.

[DanielXR8]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

And I still think Holden are stupid for spending so much on VF, I highly doubt it will do much to put a stop to the sales slide. It might initially but within 6-12 months it will keep sinking once the novelty of a new Commodore wears off and people continue moving on to SUV's, dual cabs and smaller cars.

The VF spend in isolation seems a lot of money, but if GM has decided the only way manufacturing in Australia can be made sustainable is by making high series and niche cars for export markets, then the spend on VF starts to make sense.

Especially if they want those export markets settled and in place, incase rumours change to reality for the blue corner.

I think part of the spend on VF itself and the shift in the marketing and message on Australian car production Holden is putting out, is to convince the market and potential customers here and overseas, that Holden aren't going anywhere and its safe to spend with them because they are committing to their cars and will spend the coin to keep them competitive.

In effect VF is a vote of confidence in Holdens future by GM and in that respect a cost effective marketing exercise, especially if you are looking at the longer term view and you want some buffer from any bad news coming from elsewhere in the Australian car industry.

Heck even Toyota Australia are talking up local production and their commitment to it. Makes you think both know whats coming.

[WPR1]

The current crop of Euro Ford cars are great - Mondeo, Focus, Fiesta! So "if" Ford chose to discontinue Falcon (I own and love a GT) I'm sure what they replace it with will also be great. I think it is inevitable that Falcon and Territory (I also own one of these) will be replaced by Euro Fords in the next few years, it is Fords global strategy.

[jpd80]

The one real fly in the ointment is increasing fuel prices, every time they go up, large car sales fall.
With $1.60/ litre looming, committing to a major big car evolution is a gutsy move indeed....

[BHDOGS]

give them more of our tax dollars id happily pay an extra 20 bucks a month to keep them here whose with me!

[jpd80]

A billion collected in import tariffs and practically none of it shared with local manufacturers and suppliers.

[greenfoam]

I'll give Ford Geelong a tip. If they put as diesel in it for 2014. Chop 100kg of fat out of it and fix the ever rusting bodies by purchasing someone's second hand body dip (I'm assuming they either dont have one or don't know how to use the one they have). If they can get those three main reasons the Falcon doesnt sell sorted (mostly the diesel and rust) they would be surprised at how many would sell. Get it sorted and advertise/prove it with a 10 year body warranty and ffs get the diesel in it asap, better now than never even if it is 10 years late.. No one but the most one eye freaks would buy a Commodore over a Falcon if they could bring it to the showroom like that. Holden have left themselves very exposed by not adding a diesel in the VF imho.

I was perhaps a mistake not doing the Focus but on the other hand I'm not sure a Focus buyer would like to buy a locally built one over quality concerns compared to an imported Focus.

[FalconXV]

Originally Posted by BroadyFord

And a response from Sophile Mirabella - which was the catalyst for me posting the above article on AFF:

PM MUST COME CLEAN ON FORD


http://sophiemirabella.com.au/Media/...D-CLOSURE.aspx

Spruiking his former boss’s latest policy flop, Nick Reece, a former senior advisor to Prime Minister Julia Gillard, and Victorian Premiers Brumby and Bracks, has boldly asked the question: “What should Victoria do when Ford closes its local manufacturing operations in 2016?”[1]


“As a member of Julia Gillard’s inner circle, what information has he been privy to?” asked Sophie Mirabella, Shadow Minister for Industry, today.

“We need to know what information the Government has on Ford’s manufacturing operations post-2016 and for how long they have held this knowledge.

“When the Prime Minister granted Ford a special $34 million handout last year and claimed it would create 300 new jobs, was the Prime Minister knowingly misleading the Australian public?

“We know now that within weeks of the last instalment of the $34 million taxpayer funded payment that Ford sacked 330 workers.

“Now, none other than Julia Gillard’s own former staff are telling us that Ford will close in 2016. The Prime Minister and her office must be honest with the people of Victoria and Geelong and tell them what she knows about Ford’s future,” Mrs Mirabella concluded.

Doesn't this strike anyone as disgusting and opportunistic?
Its as if its in her interests to be vindicated, so the government is proven wrong. Throwing it(2016) around like a fact is harmful to FoA, when so many people already believe they are kaput in 3 years.
Using our manufacturing as a political football shows nothing but disdain for it. This is the similar approach to the Slipper affair, IMO and I'm not defending ALP either , they're almost (if not quite) as bad.

[mik]

It`s a sad fact some people don`t give a toss about their actions if there is some gain in power or monetary benefit or notoriety, even if it is to the detriment of many others.

[BroadyFord]

The worrying thing about Mirabella's piece is that it confirms that the Libs haven't been in discussions with Ford given they are likely to win government in 6 months or so.

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by BroadyFord

The worrying thing about Mirabella's piece is that it confirms that the Libs haven't been in discussions with Ford given they are likely to win government in 6 months or so.

It doesn't confirm anything, all it "confirms" is she's assumed this Reece character has the inside run, when the article of his demonstrates that he really doesn't. He's rehashed what someone else has said last year which was, surprise surprise, from another Fairfax OP-ED. It's light on substance and heavy on opinion. The fact he is refusing to respond to questions on the subject says a lot.

[Bud Bud]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

The fact he is refusing to respond to questions on the subject says a lot.

The fact that Ford is refusing to respond to questions on the subject says a lot too!

Like everyone else here, I hope I am wrong but it seems to me that if they were planning Falcon or even manufacturing's survival in this country, then why would they let sales continue to slip into a coma in silence before announcing a grand plan for the future? Wouldn't this just make it even harder to resurrect sales if there happened to be an all new Falcon for 2017 in the pipe line? It seems to me that if Ford let the media do their dirty work for them and steer this ship, then it will be all so much easier for Ford to fulfil the medias prophecy in 2016 anyway, after all they have a reason to lay blame for the demise of Ford's manufacturing prowess at the foot of the media now don't they. And there is no point even pointing out fact from opinion or from rumour etc from what ever is being reported about Fords future in this country these days either because the ball is and has well and truly been in Fords court for a long time now.

Come on Ford, if you are not going anywhere, announce something, you don't need to give away all the details, just tell us that big things are happening and it is all positive for the Falcon, but hey if you are shutting down ops in this country by 2016, then it maybe better to remain silent. Your serve.

Bud Bud

[dimka100]

Everyone seems a little too optimistic when it comes to the 2014 Falcon and the investment Ford is making into that model compared to say the VF. Let’s do some basic numbers so we don’t get ourselves too far ahead of the facts …

I’m going to assume that Ford local manufacturing will continue to sell the same/similar number of locally made cars, my assumption is based on the following facts:
• So far the total number of locally made Fords has continued to drop each year.
• So far any new updates released by Ford for the Falcon (engines, MKII, limited models) had no positive impact on increasing the sales numbers, in fact they continued to drop.
• The 2014 upgrade will include both the Falcon and the Territory. The Territory has seen the sales increase with an updated model, I assume the same would happen when the 2014 update is released for the Territory ONLY.
• Overall the declining Falcon (including ute) and the increasing Territory should somewhat add up to the overall number of sales remaining similar to today’s numbers.

We already know the 2014 upgrade R&D budget is combined across the Falcon and the Territory, we also know the Government cash handout figure previously reported in the media, lastly we also know the 2014 update would need a further R&D budget in order to continue past 2016 due to the Government emissions regulations coming in 2017. So with that in mind let’s do some basic numbers:
• The 2014 update lifespan before more R&D dollars are required is 3 years MAX (2014, 2015, 2016)
• Ford sells approximately 35,000 locally made cars a year, so approximately 100,000 cars will be sold (see my assumptions above) in the 3 year model lifetime.
• That means that every 100million spent on R&D equates to $1,000 dollars per car ($100,000,000/100,000)

So the final question is, what is a realistic R&D figure that make sense to invest per car sold? Is it $1,000 or $2,000 or $3,000? I don’t know the answer …