Covid 19 -

Originally Posted by auxr

I'm not biting - someone else can - stay safe.

lol go on. ;)
All I'm saying is that covid should be a massive warning that something needs to change. Except it won't... because society is ****ed and we're greedy. We clearly can't self-regulate so it's going to be done for us.

[EgoFG]

Originally Posted by russellw

I'm not sure where you got your numbers for Sweden but the 7 day rolling average is still over 300 cases per day. Let's put that in perspective. It's a country with about 40% the population of Australia but with a rolling average that is 60% of even this terrible week we've been having. They have also had 5x as many cases as Australia and 27x as many deaths.

To make the comparison easier let's look at the numbers per 100k of population where Sweden has 802 cases / 100k and we have 70 / 100k so that more than 10x as many in Sweden.

Likewise, Sweden has 57 deaths per 100k of population and we have 0.8 / 100k for an even starker 71x more.

You want to call that a success?

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/
I did not actually put any figures in, but

- Rolling 7 day on infections has been under 250 for 2 weeks



I intentionally did not compare it to Australia - as much as you guys are excited (obviously excluding all who choose - most of the readers?) - Australia does not have CoronaVirus ... yet !


The county that I am in, in GA/USA has had 2/3 the cases that our entire homeland has, and almost the same number of deaths. - 1 US county!

Australia is in early days.


I actually did not call Sweden a Success, rather, I am interested in its figures.



If we do not get a vaccine, then the virus will impact everyone until it does not have enough new victims to properly survive, it would no longer be able to spread.


Large scale lockdowns, wearing of masks, in general, will push out that date but not do much to decrease the total number of infected.
Of course the hope in pushing out the date, is that treatment will improve, hospitals will not overflow and we might get a vaccine.


Here is why I find Sweden interesting !


They are, apparently, past it ... virtually, and with minimal lockdowns, so less likelihood of a "second wave".


I suggest perhaps the most interesting case per population rate is Sweden's ... because that is where we all might stop (I say might because there are other factors that may lead to variation in case/pop rates).


If this is so then 8,000/million may be a magic number.
(Although Cases/Million go well past 25,000 in some countries)



Also it is interesting because the decrease in cases belies the claim that many will get it a second time.



South Korea is also a very interesting case (280/million - but with strict lockdown), as is NewYork(1686/million- but with manic stupidity), all are apparently past the worst.


I would love to see another country that used a similar approach to Sweden - to compare





You guys may not find that interesting, and that is OK


Note: I wear a mask and isolate - because I want to outstubborn this sucker.

[russellw]

Globally - the good, the bad, and the ugly.

24 of 213 countries to have recorded case have had no resultant deaths;
10 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have a CMR higher than 10%;
18 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have no currently active cases;
94 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have more than 25% active cases;
35 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have more than 50% active cases;
25 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have an infection rate below 10/100k;
102 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have an infection rate over 100/100k;
40 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have an infection rate over 500/100k;
109 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have a death rate below 2/100k;
47 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have a death rate above 10/100k;
29 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have a death rate above 20/100k;
41 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have tested >10% of the population;
47 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have tested <0.5% of the population;

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by leesa

lol go on. ;)
All I'm saying is that covid should be a massive warning that something needs to change. Except it won't... because society is ****ed and we're greedy. We clearly can't self-regulate so it's going to be done for us.

auxr, I get his post.
To cut it short - that shipped sailed long before covid19 leesa......
Warning ? nothing will change for the better but changes for the overall worse.
Its a human thing.

[russellw]

I said a couple of weeks back that the roughly 4K new cases in late June and the first half of July would translate to something like 40 deaths and we've had 113 in the ~3 weeks since 14th of July (not counting today) after only having 108 in the preceding 3.5 months.

Nationally, we've had more than 10k cases (from a total of 18k) since June 24th and at the current CMR that should translate to 121 deaths but it looks like it might well be a bit higher unfortunately although we won't be sure until we stop getting new cases and an additional 14 days elapse.

What we can guesstimate is that the 3,568 new cases last week will likely mean another 42 deaths are yet to come.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Aussies made their choices years ago; what makes you think they will make different choices this time. Things will go back to how they were because lots of people want it that way.
There was a time when locally made and imported things (cars,tv's) were on the showroom floor side by side. We all made our choices back then.

Don't forget Australia is very multicultural so while some see buying off shore products as being unpatriotic, others do it to support their homeland...

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by prydey

Don't forget Australia is very multicultural so while some see buying off shore products as being unpatriotic, others do it to support their homeland...

What does Scotland sell here?

[Tickford.]

russellw, I'm sorry but your COVID-19 associated calculations, and charts are all wrong.

Please have a look at the link below. You need to consult this guy, who is (obviously) the world expert on COVID-19. His calculations and his charts are.. well, much better.

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/sta...20588998582273


I'd link the full interview, but I'll save everyone from the headache.

[marty351]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

What does Scotland sell here?

Biscuits

[DJR-351]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

What does Scotland sell here?

[CoupeKing]

There's some world class distilleries in Tasmania.

Won't matter anyway. Didn't Fauci recommended goggles and face shield with YOUR
already untested or improvised mask?

[roddy1960]

How do our Victorian forum members see the overall handling of the pandemic in your State , especially with Daniel Andrews and his team in mind given what's happening at the minute .

It's critically important for the whole country (obviously) that this is handled really well for all sorts of reasons but on the economic front ABC radio reported yesterday that about 25% of our national economy involves our second most populous State .

If that is actually correct , the sooner Victoria's situation improves again the better for us all .

One thing is for sure . How Victoria handles this second wave will be watched and learned from nation wide because an outbreak could happen anywhere in our country . We're a long way from being Covid safe yet that's for certain .

[roddy1960]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

There's some world class distilleries in Tasmania.

Won't matter anyway. Didn't Fauci recommended goggles and face shield with YOUR
already untested or improvised mask?

https://www.traveller.com.au/six-of-...lleries-gmblls .....Last count , about 23 or so distilleries. One uses sheep poop for part of the process..Imagine that .

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by roddy1960

How do our Victorian forum members see the overall handling of the pandemic in your State , especially with Daniel Andrews and his team in mind given what's happening at the minute .

It's critically important for the whole country (obviously) that this is handled really well for all sorts of reasons but on the economic front ABC radio reported yesterday that about 25% of our national economy involves our second most populous State .

If that is actually correct , the sooner Victoria's situation improves again the better for us all .

One thing is for sure . How Victoria handles this second wave will be watched and learned from nation wide because an outbreak could happen anywhere in our country . We're a long way from being Covid safe yet that's for certain .

I'm a little miffed at the way they've subverted democracy by putting off parliament - GAGF, figure it out like everyone else working from home, or quarantine yourselves and have your little isolation bubble like the AFL.

Went way too hard too early with Victoria Police and lost the confidence of the community.

After Victoria Police went on their epic revenue raising mission fining children on driving lesson with mum, man in car wash at 1AM on a weekday, 3 guys in a car watching a movie, they did nothing about BLM protests.

Would have liked a little more personal responsibility on the vulnerable to isolate themselves rather than immensely damage the economy with their approach they've taken.

I'd have preferred aged care facilities to have had a swift kick up the *** for allowing what they have through their malpractice.

Questionable decisions on outsourcing to security companies who are flat out looking after the shopping centers let alone managing quarantine in a pandemic.

Otherwise its a once in a lifetime event - aside from a few small things I've listed above, I think they're doing an alright job with the circumstances and the cards they've been dealt making a couple of mistakes along the way but it comes from a good, well meaning position rather than ulterior motives.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by prydey

Don't forget Australia is very multicultural so while some see buying off shore products as being unpatriotic, others do it to support their homeland...

Boycotting overseas product, or calling for trade to cease, does not make you patriotic IMHO. We are a lucky country and a huge part of that can be linked to the surplus generated from international trade. It translates to things that we take for granted, like free / affordable healthcare, affordable education, being able to support the vulnerable etc. Aside from the financial gains, it also gives citizens more freedom of choice.

Originally Posted by roddy1960

How do our Victorian forum members see the overall handling of the pandemic in your State , especially with Daniel Andrews and his team in mind given what's happening at the minute.

Dan has done alright in a very difficult time. So far he has managed to batter away the political cr@p thrown at him, and has kept his focus on the issue at hand. I'm surprised how he has not reacted to some of the stuff being said from the opposition. I'm also a big fan of Sutton, he speaks frankly, with no weasle words or spin. Victoria was always high risk, taking in a huge influx of overseas arrivals. Wasn't it taking in 50% of all international arrivals when the outbreaks happened? Ultimately, mistakes were made (both state and federal), but they are working extremely hard to try remediate. I think they called stage 3 at the right time, and stage 4 at the right time. You cannot blame the premier when 800 people who should be isolating, aren't.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by roddy1960

How do our Victorian forum members see the overall handling of the pandemic in your State , especially with Daniel Andrews and his team in mind given what's happening at the minute .

It's critically important for the whole country (obviously) that this is handled really well for all sorts of reasons but on the economic front ABC radio reported yesterday that about 25% of our national economy involves our second most populous State .

If that is actually correct , the sooner Victoria's situation improves again the better for us all .

One thing is for sure . How Victoria handles this second wave will be watched and learned from nation wide because an outbreak could happen anywhere in our country . We're a long way from being Covid safe yet that's for certain .

Initial response was good - nobody knew just how the virus would behave, and so the national lockdown was successful. Quarantine was where the problems start, mismanaged in such a way as to create a vector of community transmission. It's arguable there was a very low level of community transmission anyway, but this breach got big, quick.

They are faced with a services economy that requires a lot of face to face transactions, and an economic situation where a very high cost of living basis exists with a lot of (relatively) lowly paid work. ($23/hr might sound awesome in Nepal...) So you get people immigrating and living 10 to a house. This same situation bit Singapore in the ****. So from guards to families to fast food drivers to fast food restaurants with notable outbreaks in abattoirs and meat works. Then it starts coming to schools, which suggests community transmission.

This was bubbling away while restrictions were being eased. It was party time and freedom for Melbourne, they'd got through it, time to have that holiday regionally, weekend trips away. All the while it bubbled away. Then the cases started accelerating, just before school holidays. NSW did not shut the border. School hols had begun in the regions when Melbourne went back into Stage 3. I think what they were trying to do was to keep a lid on it while keeping as much of the economy running as possible. This might have been a false hope, as infections started becoming spread through the workplace. It has become apparent that tougher measures are needed to slow it down quicker, so maybe that's a change in management strategy. The most successful countries dealing with it have locked down hard and early. Pain now, go for a new normal later. The least successful have been muddled in their response, like the UK. I think when they look at how Vic tried to balance both economy and virus, questions might be raised about being behind the speed of spread, confused messaging, and a culture of disobeying.

Anyway, we are here now in very similar conditions to the first national lockdown - even in regions. The virus is more widespread, and community transmission is higher than before, when it was negligible. Getting over 760 cases with no known trace led to the urgent Stage 4 Melbourne lockdown. R0 was tending toward one during Stage 3, but perhaps something shifted? Widespread disobeyance (and idiot stories) couldn't have helped. If the Stage 4 lockdown works like the first national lockdown, then rates will begin to fall and probably fast. We can hope.

The Victoria post-corona will be different to the one before. Many businesses will be in real trouble or close. There will probably be an exodus to the regions, like seen in other nations like USA - those who can afford it. The culture and economy might change, hopefully a return to making things rather than a services economy. The virus will lead to new cautions and needs. We might think we're in trouble now, but there's 5 million+ industrious people here, I reckon the bounce back might surprise everyone - just with new businesses and opportunities.

My 2c

[Franco Cozzo]

Police single out so-called 'sovereign citizens' for breaking Victoria's coronavirus mask rules

Victoria Police say they have witnessed a concerning trend in the rise of so-called "sovereign citizens" who are refusing to follow coronavirus restrictions.

Chief Commissioner Shane Patton on Tuesday raised concerns about small groups refusing police directions.

“In the last week, we've seen a trend, an emergence if you like, of groups of people, small groups, but nonetheless concerning groups, who classify themselves as sovereign citizens, whatever that might mean,” he told reporters on Tuesday.

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/police-s...rus-mask-rules

I'm not sure if these people are just out and about taking the **** for the fun of it and copping the fines, or they believe this nonsense.

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by roddy1960

Daniel Andrews..... the sooner Victoria's situation improves again the better for us all.

with the idiots that have exposed themselves lately, its easy to say that Daniel Andrews is not the biggest contributor to what is happening now.
Who are those idiots that cant even wear a mask for a short period

[marty351]

Anti-maskers are in the same boat as anti-vaxxers and flat-earthers. Bunch of nutcases who should be isolated and forgotten about.

[smoo]

Originally Posted by marty351

Anti-maskers are in the same boat as anti-vaxxers and flat-earthers. Bunch of nutcases who should be isolated and forgotten about.

[Citroënbender]

I vote we isolate Eve Black at Marty’s house.

[Tickford.]

Originally Posted by Mr_G6ET

Who are those idiots that cant even wear a mask for a short period

Shhh... there's a few on here who will be offended.

They have a high opinion of themselves, with over inflated ego's and a massive superiority complex. Easy to spot these idiots as they usually have usernames that contain the words 'super' or 'king' or the like.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

What does Scotland sell here?

Type 26 frigates, laddie

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/work...-on-the-clyde/

(we're building our own, but it's the UK design, with a fair bit done in Scotland)

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/police-s...rus-mask-rules

I'm not sure if these people are just out and about taking the **** for the fun of it and copping the fines, or they believe this nonsense.

Mind exercise: if they are a sovereign citizen but their proximity threatens the existence of my sovereign citizenship, does my sovereign right include going Lord Humungous on them?

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

... going Lord Humungous on them

is ok atm, you will get off lightly. Acceptable has changed

[Sprintey]

Yeah, I'm talking in a totally post-apocalyptic, post-government kind of way...

Be still my dogs of war

[gooseneck]

You guys are gonna get it too unless you're using the WHO recommended homemade disinfectant spray and disinfect your cars interior/steering wheel/gearstick/inner door handle/outer door handle/seatbelt buckle of your car, and of our house: the front door handle/rear door handle/interior flat surfaces of your house every time that you go out and buy groceries. And make sure you're wearing gloves when doing this.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...facility-H.pdf
https://www.health.gov.au/sites/defa...r-covid-19.pdf

And also wear a mask, and glasses when outdoors, and wear gloves when packing those shelves and wash your hands after you get your groceries home.

The WHO recommended concentration is 80% isopropyl alcohol 20% water. You can get the isopropyl alcohol from sydney solvents.

Even then the 80% solution takes 30 seconds for the virus to be destroyed/killed on the surfaces. So you have to leave it soak there for 30 seconds until it evaporates. Even then I would do it again and wait another 30 seconds just to be sure.

The only mask recommended for use is the KN95 and N95 mask too as far as I'm aware. Homemade masks need to be at least 3 layers thick. https://www.insidehook.com/daily_bri...s-for-covid-19

Those 70% isoprop hand sanitizers, I don't personally trust them. Too weak and take too long to kill the virus.

The FDA also recommends an 80% solution:
https://www.fda.gov/media/136289/download

More info: https://www.fda.gov/drugs/informatio...s-and-covid-19

And yes the 80% solution WILL burn/bleach/discolor any plastic parts.

That's what I do anyway.

[Franco Cozzo]

M80 Ring Road/Keilor Park Drive

https://twitter.com/DanielAndrewsMP/...062657/photo/1

Absolute ghost town - feel like sneaking out and going for a spin through the completely dead city

There's literally more traffic on Melbourne roads at 3AM on a school night in normal times than this.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

M80 Ring Road/Keilor Park Drive

https://twitter.com/DanielAndrewsMP/...062657/photo/1

Absolute ghost town - feel like sneaking out and going for a spin through the completely dead city

There's literally more traffic on Melbourne roads at 3AM on a school night in normal times than this.

Feel like Will Smith (I am legend)

[marty351]

Be warned, the copper chopper goes on the prowl a night, heard them a few times already.