Covid 19 -

[HIPO]

You gotta love how there's no point in taking big Pharma to court over many of these "things", as they've been given a free pass by bent politicians.

[Tassie f100]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

It has now been extended to 10th Sept. Which is NOT GREAT for Vic. If we go into stage 4 now, assuming it goes for 6 weeks, that is around the time when stage 4 will end. Bringing back a risky group of people at the end of lock down would just be dumb! Unless we quarantine them in another state.

Well we don’t want any of them.Maybe send them to Manus for a month.They all knew they were not supposed to be in Bali,so why should they get the chance to spread the virus around Oz.

[FPV8U]

Just put them in a hotel with police who are actually qualified to do the job and there won’t be an issue.

No different to the compound setup they had at the high density housing a few weeks back.

It does speak volumes that the states and indeed the country appear to have no established infrastructure to deal with this kind of quarantine situation, something that needs to be fixed once we move past the current virus.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by prydey

Are we really that far behind?

A vaccine developed at Flinders in Adelaide has completed phase 1 of human trials with positive results.

I wasn't aware of the Flinders U vaccine, they may even be ahead of the UQ efforts which I have been following. Their research dept has all the right connections; the WHO, Bill Gates Foundation and the CEPI (Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation) which specialises in vaccines. They also hold the patent on the Mocular clamp technology which may be the key for new vaccines.

No, we are not that far behind but every day is thousands of lives and billions of dollare.

[HIPO]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

I wasn't aware of the Flinders U vaccine, they may even be ahead of the UQ efforts which I have been following. Their research dept has all the right connections; the WHO, Bill Gates Foundation and the CEPI (Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation) which specialises in vaccines. They also hold the patent on the Mocular clamp technology which may be the key for new vaccines.

No, we are not that far behind but every day is thousands of lives and billions of dollare.

Woah ,thats a scary combo!

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by HIPO

You gotta love how there's no point in taking big Pharma to court over many of these "things", as they've been given a free pass by bent politicians.

Bayer $15.9b settlement. J&J $4.7b settlement.

AstraZeneca looking for legal exemptions for the CV19 vaccine. Someone here indicated its normal practice in the US.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by FPV8U

Just put them in a hotel with police who are actually qualified to do the job and there won’t be an issue.

No different to the compound setup they had at the high density housing a few weeks back.

It does speak volumes that the states and indeed the country appear to have no established infrastructure to deal with this kind of quarantine situation, something that needs to be fixed once we move past the current virus.

To be fair, only 1 state currently seems to have an issue. Cases popping up in other states can largely be traced back to that one state as well.

Other states used similar strategies for quarantining returning australians.

There must be some other underlying issue as to why Victoria (Melbourne) have failed to get the virus under control. I don't think it is a second wave either as the virus was never fully under control, so its just a continuation of the original outbreak.

Yes, Melbourne takes a fair percentage of international air travel. Is this really the reason though? There are still passengers returning from overseas to most other states yet not resulting in the situation we see in Melbourne.

Is it the diverse culture of the population? Who knows.

Is it the fact that many in Melbourne feel overly 'oppressed' and just a general lack of respect for authority? I must admit i don't do social media at all but i don't tend to hear of too many groups promoting civil disobedience to the same degree as Melbourne. Maybe thats just a case of selective reporting though?

Whatever the reason, the fact is, other states have handled the situation fairly well. I would say the vast majority of problems comes down to individual behaviour and mindset. I can only comment on SA as thats where i live, but going back a few months to when it all started, compliance was pretty good. I have been fortunate enough to keep my job (albeit 20% reduced hours and money) and whilst cycling to and from work, it was dead out and about. Yes, our population is substantially smaller and less dense, as is the size of the metro area, but i think compliance is at the root of it all.

I see it as a cop out to blame authority or poorly trained staff. Most individuals knew what they 'should' be doing and not doing.

[cheap]

Victoria: Average Weekly New C19 cases (July 2020)

Week 1: 01 to 07 Average of 102 new cases per day
Week 2: 08 to 14 Average of 218 new cases per day
Week 3: 15 to 21 Average of 316 new cases per day
Week 4: 22 to 28 Average of 418 new cases per day
Week 5: 29 to 02 Average of 543 new cases per day

C19 isn't slowing down, Stage 4 is certain.

[Tickford.]

State of 'Disaster' declared in Victoria from 6pm tonight.

Stage 4 restrictions introduced in metro Melbourne.

Curfew for Melbourne from 8pm to 5am starting today.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-...-rise/12515914

[Fed]

"I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure."

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I'm calling BS on the rumours about the strict lockdown, lets see though.

Its widespread in Melbourne - Southbank is one of the suburbs where it goes on and in both forms - legal and illegally, there's about 20,000 people who live in the 2km2 that makes up that suburb, put two and two together.

Also South Eastern suburbs in a big way - there is a huge amount of certain people coming over, claiming refugee visa the moment they land, it gives them a 2-3 year period of the government verifying while granting a bridging visa because of the backlog,

They work illegally as a sex worker then when their refugee claim gets rejected they take the money back home, while not paying taxes on any of it.

It happens big time in AirBNB rentals, mostly apartments in the inner suburbs or CBD, if you own an apartment in these areas and are using it for AirBNB and getting 18-50 year old female tenants on the regular then you are likely providing a venue for an illegal brothel.

Same thing with the 'massage' venues around Melbourne, lots of them are unlicensed/illegal brothel operations.

'massage' places clicky

The legal industry is VERY upset about these 'massage' places being allowed to operate when they relaxed the restrictions, but not the licensed venues.

But they looked like legit businesses in the malls... I give random people way too much credit... God only knows what the nail places were then, all the chemicals there...

Edit: surf trip with the lads gets to the Gold Coast... we notice every shop front on the highway seems to be a tattoo parlour, a massage place, or dog grooming. One of the boys notices a tattoo removal place and declares the operator a genius. That's what an economy looks like when you have no economy.

[russellw]

Time for some graphs:

First up are three of the countries that got hit badly early in the piece: Spain, UK and Italy.



Spain looks to be having a fairly sustained second wave although not at the same level as the first one while the UK and Italy look to be fairly steady at a much lower level than their peak.

Next are two more countries that got hit badly early in the piece but which continue to get worse: Brazil and the USA.



Next are some countries that we've been watching - these graphs are since the outbreak started and based on cases per 100k of population to show how each country has progressed through the duration:

1. Countries that have more than 20 cases / 100k - Chile, Ukraine, Brazil & Panama. Chile started slower than the other two but peaked earlier before declining steeply and largely continuing to do so while both Panama, Brazil and the Ukraine have continued to climb and probably haven't yet peaked.



2. Countries that have more than 15-20 cases / 100k - Peru, Moldova, Dominican Republic & the USA. Peru peaked back in early June but now looks to be having a second wave that is just as bad. Moldova looks to be doing much the same while neither the USA or Dominican Republic look to have actually peaked yet.



3. Countries that have more than 10-15 cases / 100k - Russia, Belarus, Guatemala, Saudi Arabia & the Honduras. Russia has been in a very steady decline since peaking in late May while Belarus had declined more steeply and even Saudi Arabia now looks to be heading the right way after a mid-June peak. Not so good news for Honduras and Guatemala although they may well have peaked about 10 days ago.



4. Countries that have more than 2-10 cases / 100k - Mexico, UK, Sweden, El Salvador, India & Czechia. While Sweden didn't peak until the end of June, the belated introduction of tough restrictions has seen a rapid decline in case numbers. The UK has been in decline since a peak in early May but it's been gradual while the rest continue to climb albeit slowly except for El Salvador and India which have ramped up quite steeply.



5. Finally those countries with less than 2 cases / 100k - Canada, Italy and Spain all of which had been trending downward since their early May peaks although Canada and Spain are showing a slight upward trend over the most recent two weeks.



We can see this data a bit better in the polynomial trend lines. Starting with Asia, this first lot are all what you'd want to see - a rising curve to a peak followed by a continuing downward line and Pakistan has seen the best reduction by a significant amount.



This next group only has Iran and Qatar showing that same shaped trend-line with Qatar showing a major drop to almost nothing. Conversely; Iraq, Indonesia and Kazakhstan continue to rise and likely haven't peaked yet while Turkey had been doing really well since their very early peak but it's started to climb again, albeit slowly.



This next group have all reached their peak and are in decline except Singapore which is clearly having a second wave. Nepal and Afghanistan are down to almost nothing while Kuwait has been pretty flat since an early June peak.



The final set of charts are for African countries and their new case numbers with only Nigeria, Ivory Coast and Sudan actually showing any improvement while the rest continue to climb, some steeply.

[PhilT2]

"Victoria- The education state" now becomes "Victoria-State of Disaster"
Not sure if it will catch on.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by prydey

To be fair, only 1 state currently seems to have an issue. Cases popping up in other states can largely be traced back to that one state as well.

Other states used similar strategies for quarantining returning australians.

There must be some other underlying issue as to why Victoria (Melbourne) have failed to get the virus under control. I don't think it is a second wave either as the virus was never fully under control, so its just a continuation of the original outbreak.

Yes, Melbourne takes a fair percentage of international air travel. Is this really the reason though? There are still passengers returning from overseas to most other states yet not resulting in the situation we see in Melbourne.

Is it the diverse culture of the population? Who knows.

Is it the fact that many in Melbourne feel overly 'oppressed' and just a general lack of respect for authority? I must admit i don't do social media at all but i don't tend to hear of too many groups promoting civil disobedience to the same degree as Melbourne. Maybe thats just a case of selective reporting though?

Whatever the reason, the fact is, other states have handled the situation fairly well. I would say the vast majority of problems comes down to individual behaviour and mindset. I can only comment on SA as thats where i live, but going back a few months to when it all started, compliance was pretty good. I have been fortunate enough to keep my job (albeit 20% reduced hours and money) and whilst cycling to and from work, it was dead out and about. Yes, our population is substantially smaller and less dense, as is the size of the metro area, but i think compliance is at the root of it all.

I see it as a cop out to blame authority or poorly trained staff. Most individuals knew what they 'should' be doing and not doing.

It's obvious, look at the post codes with the most cases and where the community transmission is occuring.

I've covered it before but it's to do with Melbourne being divided up into ethnic communities with their own micro economies - it's a view if you aren't part of our community than you can get ****ed, my grandparents think exactly the same about the pandemic, they don't see the government as being able to dictate to them how to live their lives.

It's not one particular ethnicity that's the problem, it's mismanagement of helping migrants fit into Melbourne society, they mismanaged it from the 1940s when my grandparents migrated here and they've mismanaged it with the Sudanese they dumped here in the mid 00s and everything in between over the past 80 years.

It's more prominent in Melbourne because it's the most monocultural city in the nation - North West, West and parts of the South East.

Originally Posted by Sprintey

But they looked like legit businesses in the malls... I give random people way too much credit... God only knows what the nail places were then, all the chemicals there...

Edit: surf trip with the lads gets to the Gold Coast... we notice every shop front on the highway seems to be a tattoo parlour, a massage place, or dog grooming. One of the boys notices a tattoo removal place and declares the operator a genius. That's what an economy looks like when you have no economy.

Imagine living in Melbourne when it's economy is built around art, culture and hospitality and then you have a pandemic and the government forces closed all the art, culture and hospitality businesses

Remember when we actually made things other than food and fancy coffee? Now it's a service economy servicing nothing.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

It's obvious, look at the post codes with the most cases and where the community transmission is occuring.

I've covered it before but it's to do with Melbourne being divided up into ethnic communities with their own micro economies - it's a view if you aren't part of our community than you can get ****ed, my grandparents think exactly the same about the pandemic, they don't see the government as being able to dictate to them how to live their lives.

It's not one particular ethnicity that's the problem, it's mismanagement of helping migrants fit into Melbourne society, they mismanaged it from the 1940s when my grandparents migrated here and they've mismanaged it with the Sudanese they dumped here in the mid 00s and everything in between over the past 80 years.

It's more prominent in Melbourne because it's the most monocultural city in the nation - North West, West and parts of the South East.



Imagine living in Melbourne when it's economy is built around art, culture and hospitality and then you have a pandemic and the government forces closed all the art, culture and hospitality businesses

Surely other cities also have groups of the same ethnicity?

[roKWiz]

Find it very odd that not one Aussie capital city BLM protest was directly related to this, would make any normal person question how is that so.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by prydey

Surely other cities also have groups of the same ethnicity?

Yes but not in the same numbers as Melbourne and not concentrated around certain council regions or suburbs, we're the fastest growing capital city and expected to overtake Sydney in population by 2026 - nearly 40% of our population was born overseas.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Yes but not in the same numbers as Melbourne, we're the fastest growing capital city and expected to overtake Sydney in population by 2026 - nearly 40% of our population was born overseas.

Franco, Don't know when you last visited but Sydney has exactly the same type of monoculture as Melbourne particularly some of the South Western subs.
Try knocking around Bankstown, Bass Hill, Liverpool, Cabramatta for a day.

Places like Rockdale they can't even obey the "No Smoking" laws at outdoor cafe's and even have ashtrays still on the tables. Russian mob seem to dominate the area.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Franco, Don't know when you last visited but Sydney has exactly the same type of monoculture as Melbourne particularly some of the South Western subs.
Try knocking around Bankstown, Bass Hill, Liverpool, Cabramatta for a day.

Places like Rockdale they can't even obey the "No Smoking" laws at outdoor cafe's and even have ashtrays still on the tables. Russian mob seem to dominate the area.

Yup - Sydney is another capital city which has similar problems to Melbourne, I'm pretty sure Cabramatta played host to our first confirmed political assassination (Donald Mackay is technically 'missing').

I've only been to Sydney three times - Rooty Hill, Mt Druitt, Penrith, Circular Quay, Annandale and the CBD.

Mt Druitt Westfield was an experience

With Sydney it seems the majority of Lebanese migrants settled in the Western suburbs during their civil war in the 1970s when we took them in and a lot of Iraqis in the 1990s also ended up there.

Both Melbourne and Sydney are the two big capital cities on the radar that take the majority of overseas migration, last year Melbourne took 45% of all international arrivals.

[FPV8U]

Originally Posted by prydey

I see it as a cop out to blame authority or poorly trained staff. Most individuals knew what they 'should' be doing and not doing.

Can’t disagree that those in there should have done the right thing, that goes without saying.

All in all it doesn’t matter now, how it could have been done or what those in quarantine should have done, we now (In Victoria) all get to embrace the result of the decisions made.

[XR Martin]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Find it very odd that not one Aussie capital city BLM protest was directly related to this, would make any normal person question how is that so.

It appears most community transmission occurs indoors.

[XR Martin]

Originally Posted by HIPO

Stuff all Australian deaths from this, when compared to many,many other flu seasons here..................

You just don't get it.
When does a flu season ever collapse the health system?

[Franco Cozzo]

I'm interested to see the forced shutdowns announced tomorrow, I wonder what types of businesses are still at work that could be working from home?

[Citroënbender]

I seriously reckon there’s a fast buck in Sydney for pop-up face mask sewing stalls. Your fabric or theirs, two patterns, three sizes, white or black elastic.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I seriously reckon there’s a fast buck in Sydney for pop-up face mask sewing stalls. Your fabric or theirs, two patterns, three sizes, white or black elastic.

My older sister is making coin on making masks for her local area, she had 65 orders come in at $20 a pop when she advertised them for the first time.

It's a bit of a fashion accessory thing too, I've got the Australian flag face covering CAUSE AUSTRALIAN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY! (and nationalism)

Some of our crew have bandanas, the admin ladies have shades of pink, purple etc.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by FPV8U

Can’t disagree that those in there should have done the right thing, that goes without saying.

All in all it doesn’t matter now, how it could have been done or what those in quarantine should have done, we now (In Victoria) all get to embrace the result of the decisions made.

found this on another forum...

Victorians have a right to be angry, but maybe just think about where that anger is directed first...

[MITCHAY]

Well I wish everyone in Vic the best of luck. Going to be a rough 6 weeks so hopefully it will achieve the result we all need.

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Well I wish everyone in Vic the best of luck. Going to be a rough 6 weeks so hopefully it will achieve the result we all need.

I don't need luck. I'll just wait for the vaccine for something that has a 99% recovery rate pushed by a creeper.

[Jack91]

Note to anyone else with a bushy beard- fabric masks dont fit.
They go on, but move around while i am complaining and ranting to the mrs about the colour. The hair under the chin is too majestic and bushy to be compressed by the crappy elastic.
The only disposable ones that do are the high end 3m ones with 2 straps. Expensive and hard to get.

I put a new filter in the old sundstrom respirator. Looks like me and it are gonna get really well acquainted again over the next few weeks.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Imagine living in Melbourne when it's economy is built around art, culture and hospitality and then you have a pandemic and the government forces closed all the art, culture and hospitality businesses

Remember when we actually made things other than food and fancy coffee? Now it's a service economy servicing nothing.

Yeah that leaves you with upgrayedd the pimp... In past travels to the city in the 2000's I loved the idea that you had almost every kind of venue, pubs for bookish people even, it was and is a place where you can experience quite a variety of these things. But all this should be founded on a healhty, productive, value-adding society.

So for eg, I don't think the lockdown is such a terrible thing here just outside Melbourne, have been taking it seriously, and it's more of a case of "what can I build and create in this time?" In some ways it's a blessing, going to come out of this with some sweet tech and small scale manufacturing capability, and there'd be no way I'd have the time and focus with work ongoing, if this hadn't happened. Hope we can get the transmission levels down and get on top of it. Imagine a Victoria that has all the amazing dining and cultural attractions, but is an absolute manufacturing powerhouse because so many of us had shed time in the lockdown!