Covid 19 -

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by russellw

The graph for today:

image

What does "global case growth" number mean? Is that saying the rate of infection is slowing down as more people are infected?

[XR Martin]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

What does "global case growth" number mean? Is that saying the rate of infection is slowing down as more people are infected?

I think that's how many days for the next million infections.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by XR Martin

I think that's how many days for the next million infections.

I thought it was just me. Sorry Russel but you'll have to explain that graph a little to us math challenged people.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

I thought it was just me. Sorry Russel but you'll have to explain that graph a little to us math challenged people.

A couple of axis titles will sort it, FFS Russ

[russellw]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

I thought it was just me. Sorry Russel but you'll have to explain that graph a little to us math challenged people.

Originally Posted by T3rminator

What does "global case growth" number mean? Is that saying the rate of infection is slowing down as more people are infected?

Originally Posted by ford71V8

Does the above graph show how may days it is taking to hit the next million?

As in, it now only took 3 days to go from 17M to 18M?

Originally Posted by XR Martin

I think that's how many days for the next million infections.

The last two are indeed correct. It shows the number of elapsed days between each million new cases. Ideally, after an early peak you'd want to see that number getting larger and not smaller. I shall add axis labels next time.

[ford71V8]

Does the above graph show how may days it is taking to hit the next million?

As in, it now only took 3 days to go from 17M to 18M?

[PhilT2]

More on hydroxychloroquine
https://crooksandliars.com/cltv/2020...oir-no-benefit

[T3rminator]

In case you missed it, here is the video of Fauci, Redfield and Giroir testimony to the House on the US CV19 response, on 31 July 2020. All 3.5hrs of it. Covers a wide range of topics, China's initial response, why US growth is topping the world, Hydroxxx, Vaccine hacking, BLM protests etc etc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mO4ERWZYy9I

[buggerlugs]

Since when in Victoria are Bottle Shops "Essential Services" ?
__________________

[DJR-351]

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

Since when in Victoria are Bottle Shops "Essential Services" ?
__________________

Since the Tobacco and Alcohol Industry help pay for the politicians wages.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

Since when in Victoria are Bottle Shops "Essential Services" ?
__________________

If you spend your JobSpondoolies TM payments at those venues the government gets like 75% of it back

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

Since when in Victoria are Bottle Shops "Essential Services" ?
__________________

I'm going to be naive, and give the gov the benefit of the doubt, and say its because of people who have dependency on the stuff. Can't just shut off the tap at a time like this.

[marty351]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

Since when in Victoria are Bottle Shops "Essential Services" ?
__________________

Try to imagine a bunch of alcoholics and nicotine addicts going through withdrawal.
Murican riots and blm would pale in comparison.

[PhilT2]

Figures leaked to the BBC indicate that the Iranian govt has deliberately under-reported the number of deaths from Covid-19. The govt's own internal records show about 42,000 deaths instead of the 14,400 in their official reports.
Iran has a huge number of Afgan refugees and they have been particularly affected. The report doesn't mention why that is but I imagine overcrowded and squalid living conditions may play a part. Although they share a language Afgans are not welcome in Iran.
The Iranians are not the only govt lying about the death rate, they're just the latest one caught doing it.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-53598965

[russellw]

Originally Posted by T2rminator

"Research from the Burnett Institute revealed that before Melbourne introduced Stage 3 lockdowns, the reproduction number was 1.75, ABC’s 7.30 program reported.

The Level 3 restrictions brought that infection rate down, meaning that 20,000 infections were avoided during the month of July."

How many potential deaths is 20,000 infections that based on current CMR?

At the current Australian CMR of 1.161% that's a worst case scenario of 200 deaths.

Further to the comment above, we knew that China was being less than truthful about either case or mortality numbers and it doesn't surprise me that there are others being (let's be generous) a bit inaccurate for a variety of reasons not all of them deliberate.

[EgoFG]

Sweden - Only locked down the susceptible, seems to be past the grief. Daily cases down for the last month (excluding this weekend), Daily deaths decreasing since April to almost zero.
What do we think ?

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by EgoFG

Sweden - Only locked down the susceptible, seems to be past the grief. Daily cases down for the last month (excluding this weekend), Daily deaths decreasing since April to almost zero.
What do we think ?

I agree with how they did it, isolate the vulnerable, everyone else goes about it with precautions.

Right at first when it kicked off we had signs up, marks on the ground, all my customers had bollards and barriers and observing distance.

Now no one cares within reason there's no bollards, no signs (except mask ones), people are still out and about collecting or dropping off stuff in person, rep visits except for the corporates except now you've got masks and you don't shake hands.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by EgoFG

Sweden - Only locked down the susceptible, seems to be past the grief. Daily cases down for the last month (excluding this weekend), Daily deaths decreasing since April to almost zero.
What do we think ?

I dont mind it other than not knowing the real impact or last effects of infection?

[russellw]

I'm not sure where you got your numbers for Sweden but the 7 day rolling average is still over 300 cases per day. Let's put that in perspective. It's a country with about 40% the population of Australia but with a rolling average that is 60% of even this terrible week we've been having. They have also had 5x as many cases as Australia and 27x as many deaths.

To make the comparison easier let's look at the numbers per 100k of population where Sweden has 802 cases / 100k and we have 70 / 100k so that more than 10x as many in Sweden.

Likewise, Sweden has 57 deaths per 100k of population and we have 0.8 / 100k for an even starker 71x more.

You want to call that a success?

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by russellw

You want to call that a success?

Their attempt to isolate the vulnerable doesn't meet my idea of success either. Many of their deaths were in aged care.

[EgoFG]

Originally Posted by russellw

I'm not sure where you got your numbers for Sweden but the 7 day rolling average is still over 300 cases per day. Let's put that in perspective. It's a country with about 40% the population of Australia but with a rolling average that is 60% of even this terrible week we've been having. They have also had 5x as many cases as Australia and 27x as many deaths.

To make the comparison easier let's look at the numbers per 100k of population where Sweden has 802 cases / 100k and we have 70 / 100k so that more than 10x as many in Sweden.

Likewise, Sweden has 57 deaths per 100k of population and we have 0.8 / 100k for an even starker 71x more.

You want to call that a success?

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/
I did not actually put any figures in, but

- Rolling 7 day on infections has been under 250 for 2 weeks



I intentionally did not compare it to Australia - as much as you guys are excited (obviously excluding all who choose - most of the readers?) - Australia does not have CoronaVirus ... yet !


The county that I am in, in GA/USA has had 2/3 the cases that our entire homeland has, and almost the same number of deaths. - 1 US county!

Australia is in early days.


I actually did not call Sweden a Success, rather, I am interested in its figures.



If we do not get a vaccine, then the virus will impact everyone until it does not have enough new victims to properly survive, it would no longer be able to spread.


Large scale lockdowns, wearing of masks, in general, will push out that date but not do much to decrease the total number of infected.
Of course the hope in pushing out the date, is that treatment will improve, hospitals will not overflow and we might get a vaccine.


Here is why I find Sweden interesting !


They are, apparently, past it ... virtually, and with minimal lockdowns, so less likelihood of a "second wave".


I suggest perhaps the most interesting case per population rate is Sweden's ... because that is where we all might stop (I say might because there are other factors that may lead to variation in case/pop rates).


If this is so then 8,000/million may be a magic number.
(Although Cases/Million go well past 25,000 in some countries)



Also it is interesting because the decrease in cases belies the claim that many will get it a second time.



South Korea is also a very interesting case (280/million - but with strict lockdown), as is NewYork(1686/million- but with manic stupidity), all are apparently past the worst.


I would love to see another country that used a similar approach to Sweden - to compare





You guys may not find that interesting, and that is OK


Note: I wear a mask and isolate - because I want to outstubborn this sucker.

[russellw]

395 new cases for Australia and 13 deaths sees the CMR rise to 1.206% and active cases rise to 7,475. NSW recorded 13; SA recorded 2 with the balance in Victoria.

2 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.404% and active cases rise to 27.

The UK recorded 928 new cases and 9 deaths yesterday so the CMR drops to 15.120%.

Just under 49k new cases in the USA yesterday and 467 deaths sees CMR down to 3.290% and active cases at 47.3% with the raw numbers still rising. That's the lowest case numbers in almost a month which is some positive news. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
The USA completes 60M, Russia 29M, India 20M and Mexico 1M tests;
Oceania passes 20k cases;
Africa passes 20k deaths;
Asia passes 100k deaths;

No countries recorded new daily highs although there are a lot of figures missing from African countries today, those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[russellw]

Globally - the good, the bad, and the ugly.

24 of 213 countries to have recorded case have had no resultant deaths;
10 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have a CMR higher than 10%;
18 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have no currently active cases;
94 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have more than 25% active cases;
35 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have more than 50% active cases;
25 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have an infection rate below 10/100k;
102 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have an infection rate over 100/100k;
40 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have an infection rate over 500/100k;
109 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have a death rate below 2/100k;
47 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have a death rate above 10/100k;
29 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have a death rate above 20/100k;
41 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have tested >10% of the population;
47 of 213 countries to have recorded cases have tested <0.5% of the population;

[russellw]

I said a couple of weeks back that the roughly 4K new cases in late June and the first half of July would translate to something like 40 deaths and we've had 113 in the ~3 weeks since 14th of July (not counting today) after only having 108 in the preceding 3.5 months.

Nationally, we've had more than 10k cases (from a total of 18k) since June 24th and at the current CMR that should translate to 121 deaths but it looks like it might well be a bit higher unfortunately although we won't be sure until we stop getting new cases and an additional 14 days elapse.

What we can guesstimate is that the 3,568 new cases last week will likely mean another 42 deaths are yet to come.

[Tickford.]

russellw, I'm sorry but your COVID-19 associated calculations, and charts are all wrong.

Please have a look at the link below. You need to consult this guy, who is (obviously) the world expert on COVID-19. His calculations and his charts are.. well, much better.

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/sta...20588998582273


I'd link the full interview, but I'll save everyone from the headache.

[CoupeKing]

There's some world class distilleries in Tasmania.

Won't matter anyway. Didn't Fauci recommended goggles and face shield with YOUR
already untested or improvised mask?

[roddy1960]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

There's some world class distilleries in Tasmania.

Won't matter anyway. Didn't Fauci recommended goggles and face shield with YOUR
already untested or improvised mask?

https://www.traveller.com.au/six-of-...lleries-gmblls .....Last count , about 23 or so distilleries. One uses sheep poop for part of the process..Imagine that .

[Franco Cozzo]

Police single out so-called 'sovereign citizens' for breaking Victoria's coronavirus mask rules

Victoria Police say they have witnessed a concerning trend in the rise of so-called "sovereign citizens" who are refusing to follow coronavirus restrictions.

Chief Commissioner Shane Patton on Tuesday raised concerns about small groups refusing police directions.

“In the last week, we've seen a trend, an emergence if you like, of groups of people, small groups, but nonetheless concerning groups, who classify themselves as sovereign citizens, whatever that might mean,” he told reporters on Tuesday.

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/police-s...rus-mask-rules

I'm not sure if these people are just out and about taking the **** for the fun of it and copping the fines, or they believe this nonsense.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/police-s...rus-mask-rules

I'm not sure if these people are just out and about taking the **** for the fun of it and copping the fines, or they believe this nonsense.

Mind exercise: if they are a sovereign citizen but their proximity threatens the existence of my sovereign citizenship, does my sovereign right include going Lord Humungous on them?