Covid 19 -

[russellw]

I'm not convinced that we are even close to ready to start large gatherings anytime soon for things like AFL and NRL. From the clustered outbreaks we've seen at Cedar Meats (91 cases) and Fawkner McDonalds (10 cases), I would consider that putting large numbers of people in close proximity for 2 hours is a recipe for disaster.

At least those two clusters were reasonably easy to trace and contain but the multiplier effect from a single infected person at such an event could be a potential nightmare.

Maybe in another month when AFL is planned to start things will be different but I'll be surprised.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by guzzis3

In many countries, perhaps not so much Australia, there has been a significant increase in deaths due to other things which were probably brought on by the virus like suicides accidental deaths due to being at home or otherwise away from work, loss of access to health care..even though this has only been on for a short while the impacts arose quickly.

As I've said before we won't really know until long after it's passed and there is time to study the pandemic properly. For now there are a lot more opinions than certainties.

But we should still speculate wildly

We have to balance the increase in deaths against the lives saved by the lockdown. Our road toll is down, in the US school shootings are way down (school's closed) but gang murders are still popular. Measures taken against Covid are also protecting the vulnerable from the regular flu.

Even when it's passed we will only be able to guesstimate the real toll. When this virus gets loose in the slums of poor countries it's likely no attempt will be made to record the true cause of death. Tests cost money and these peoples lives are not valued.

Wild speculation is ok; lying to further your political agenda is another matter and that some continue to swallow these lies and not hold the liar accountable concerns me.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Even when it's passed...

I'd very much doubt it will ever 'pass' as such - it will just reach a level where there is an x% effective vaccine (probably annual) and an x% acceptable mortality rate. As I mentioned pages ago, those 'acceptable' levels for Influenza are ~80% effective for a vaccine and ~1% for deaths in developed countries but this is probably a bit more infectious so the acceptable death rate may end up being higher. Note that the mortality rate in less developed countries is considerably higher.

What the case mortality does have to do is drop below the current global rate of 6.7% to something like the Oceania rate of 1.39% and there may well end up being some countries that don't manage to achieve a low enough rate in which case they become higher risk travel destinations and maybe even banned ones. Or banned for those in high risk portions of the population.

There will be a world on the other side of the current pandemic but it won't be the same one.

[kaniSS]

Originally Posted by Fed

I'm feeling very sorry for the younger people because they will have to lead a bubble life for the next 50 Years or more.

They already live in a bubble mate.

[Professor Farnsworth]

Craigieburn Maccas is closed now - worker tested positive. McCovid meal has a decent ring to it - jump on the notoriety?

[auxr]

[Just post your Full name, date of birth, postal address, phone number in this thread and I will send you a copy right away. Unless you're a criminal you have nothing to hide.[/QUOTE]

Your such a kind person, my details are as follow:

Name: Al Capone
DOB: about 1899
Address: last known - Alcatraz
Phone: three short taps on the wall

pps - I am not a criminal.

[Ben73]

I saw something on the news about Spain looking at easing restrictions next week. I think that's jumping the gun since they have 58,000 active cases.
Australia has about 500 and most leaders are wary of reducing lock down.

[.:4:.]

The reduction in lockdown. With the 10 person rule, what i saw today was bigger places for sit downs still remain closed or takeaway only. But some smaller places dont really give a crap, nor do the sit down people. When i ordered lunch, the smallish place i ordered takeaway from (i was working in a place with a nice lunch room, a nicer place to be, even has an atm) they had more then 10. One table had 6 people on a table, no distancing or disenfecting surfaces once people left and new ones entered. So a breif spike is in my opinion what could potentially happen.

[MITCHAY]

With all the restriction changes in the last week I just hope we actually wait at least 2-4 weeks to fully evaluate the effect.

There is no way we would be better off to go ahead full steam and then have to shut down again.

Though given the unemployment figures and the huge amount of people basically paid by welfare I can understand the temptation to do so.

6.2% unemployment rate and basically half the workforce on JobKeeper payments.

Way worse than I ever imagined. And now we are potentially in a trade war to cap it off. I firmly believe though we need to stick to our guns even if it hurts because if we bend over now then that sets a bad precedent.

What I really find interesting is that China is trying to kill two birds with one stone by giving a **** you to Australia and would be buying up more US products to meet their demands and to meet the trade obligations that Trump was bashing them for.

Then he turns around saying that they could cut off all trade. Seriously WTF is this guy doing?

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Ben73

This is a very bad logic to follow. Just like the "I Have nothing to hide" argument.

Then apps ask for a little more more info. Then a little more, then a little more, then a little more. People hand it over because "hey I'm not criminal I have nothing to hide"

image

Dial 2318008 in calculator and turn phone upside down for drugs

Anyone aware of the UK's Porton Down lab? The one where they kept testing nerve agents on their own soldiers who would volunteer for testing a new flu vaccine or the time they let off bacteria with similar characteristics of anthrax in the London underground and sprayed holiday destinations?



Maybe Wuhan's lab is China's Porton Down?

[zilo]

Originally Posted by cs123

What info are they going to get from the covid app?

A complete picture of what hookers I have failed to keep 1.5m apart, how much ammo I bought, the amount of time I spent on car forums and porn sites as well as access to my photos,contacts, sms conversations and just for fun my Commbank APP with puny 4 digit pin..

Australian citizens have rights below domesticated farm animals in the US bill of rights...

[Cav]

The cops threatened me down at the beach today about social distancing.

Is it really my fault if my good looks have all the chicks hitting on me?



I mean the women are only human.

[MITCHAY]

They want your pension. They have clubs for the older birds these days.

I'd be more comfortable with that picture though if at least one of them had a tattoo because it is hard to tell really

[CoupeKing]

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by zilo

Australian citizens have rights below domesticated farm animals in the US bill of rights...

Is this the same bill of rights that was created many years before slavery was abolished?

[wackyv8]

rights? george carlin for my opinion on "rights"

[EgoFG]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

We still have an increase in total deaths that is greater than the normal death toll plus the covid deaths. How do we account for these?

I am not quite getting your point ... perhaps it is my "covid-19 temporary IQ retardation"


I have not crunched the numbers specifically to answer this, but from the CDC figures I crunched before, Total US deaths (all causes) for first 16 week of the calendar year
2018 = 946,067
2019 = 919,699
2020 = 876,416

There is no increase in total deaths


Deaths by Pneumonia + Influensa (Will not include all COVID Deaths)
2018 = 83,610
2019 = 67,075
2020 = 76,666

Even deaths by these two causes is not so abnormal

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by EgoFG

I am not quite getting your point ...

Check this from the UK.
https://fullfact.org/health/covid-deaths/

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Is this the same bill of rights that was created many years before slavery was abolished?

What I have learned from Yanks is they are full of **** and hot air, hence the Seppo term. But they berate us for not having firearms.

How many fat ****s have you have seen with body armour and their rifles running around in public.

They have enough civilian firepower to be an armed state and don't anything about it.

And now it is tyrannical to keep people safe for health reasons WTF

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

And now it is tyrannical to keep people safe WTF

Check out their civil asset forfeiture laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4TaJuRTJxg

[MITCHAY]

Reports are that we have locked support from the EU for an investigation. World Health Assembly this weekend. Momentum is gaining.

It's one thing to claim we are a US lapdog which we are but when others are backing us in is what we need to force the issue.

If and when the G8 or G20 countries finally unite they can't run and hide.

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Check out their civil asset forfeiture laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4TaJuRTJxg

Mate I don't give a **** about their constitutional rights. Not our problem.

My point was is they have all these bill of rights and all these guns but in reality they do nothing about it right or wrong.

But what is amazing is they are out there roaming the streets protesting lock down restrictions for health purposes. The restrictions that are trying to keep people alive.

[EgoFG]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Check this from the UK.
https://fullfact.org/health/covid-deaths/

Ah, forgive me for being a little insular, Australian, living in USA, Fauci's opinion was being discussed, I limited my thoughts.


I will revise them:

My Gut says he Fauci is wrong, or the under-reports are almost equal the over-reports, when speaking in the US senate about the US national death toll.
.....


Whileever USA hospitals get paid money for Covid-19 cases, I expect we will see over-reporting as the bigger issue in the USA

Now we can agree !


Note: I took the time to grab the latest US figures from the US CDC


Total US deaths (all causes) for first 18 weeks of the calendar year

2017 = 1,025,500
2018 = 1,053,535
2019 = 1,022,494
2020 = 1,013,760

There is no increase in total deaths


Deaths by Pneumonia + Influenza (Will not include all COVID Deaths)

2017 = 80,351

2018 = 90,427
2019 = 72,992
2020 = 94,997


There is some growth here - 4% more that a bad flu year (2018)

[MITCHAY]

There is still more than 6 months to go. Who knows what it ends up being but approaching 90k.

[russellw]

Australia recorded 30 new cases for yesterday, 21 of which were in Victoria. The CMR drops to 1.396% and active cases to 8.3%.

NZ had 1 new case and no deaths so CMR is down to 1.402% and active cases to 4.3%.

3,560 cases in the UK and 384 deaths so the CMR drops to 14.363%. They have stopped reporting active case numbers.

Over 27k new cases in the USA and 1,682 deaths sees the CMR up to 5.96% but active cases drop to 72.2%.

Another bad day for Brazil with more than 15k new cases yesterday.

[MITCHAY]

I wonder what the 'acceptable' amount of cases is while we look to wind down restrictions. When do they determine the spike is too much?

I guess we will find out but considering we were in the hundreds and now less than 50 is a spike, that is a huge amount of progress.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by EgoFG

Total US deaths (all causes) for first 18 weeks of the calendar year

2017 = 1,025,500
2018 = 1,053,535
2019 = 1,022,494
2020 = 1,013,760

There is no increase in total deaths

Biggest BS I have seen for a while, that "source" is fake or incomplete or just outright propoganda/lies.

[Fed]

I still hark back to mid February when we had a grand total of 5 cases, everything that has happened after that I place blame firmly on the Govt's shoulders.

Got to love the way they can spin that into, 'We have done a good job'.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Cav

The cops threatened me down at the beach today about social distancing.

Is it really my fault if my good looks have all the chicks hitting on me?

image

I mean the women are only human.

eenie meenie minie moe

[Fed]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

eenie meenie minie moe

Moe could be a bloke.