diesel cars in decline...

[.FoMoCo.]

Diesel cars in decline:

From drive today...

THE rise of diesel-powered passenger cars in Australia is coming to an end. Between 2005 and 2010, sales of diesel cars morethan quadrupled as buyers were attracted by the lower fuel use and better performance offered by oil-burning engines. Luxury diesel-powered cars from Europe also became popular because their low fuel use meant owners could dodge the government's luxury-car tax. Any car that uses no more than 7.0 litres of fuel per 100 kilometres is exempt from the tax, which applies at a rate of 33 per cent on the proportion of a car's cost above the $57,466 threshold. But now turbocharged petrol engines are dipping below the magic fuel-use number, making them more attractive to luxury-car buyers. Volkswagen, Audi and Mercedes-Benz have all embraced turbocharging as a method of downsizing engines while maintaining performance. Last year, private sales of diesel-powered cars dipped by more than 10 per cent. BMW says it expects sales of diesel-powered versions of its new 3-Series sedan to decline as more people are drawn to turbocharged petrol engines. Until recently, diesel engines have typically delivered substantially more torque than similar-sized petrol engines, which translates to better in-gear performance. They are also more fuel efficient. But the latest turbo-petrol engines now offer better off-the-line performance, while narrowing the gap on fuel efficiency. The move back to petrol at BMW reflects a similar trend at Mercedes-Benz, where diesel sales of its top-selling C-Class sedan declined once it introduced turbocharged petrol engines that more closely matched the performance and fuel economy of the diesels. Prior to the arrival of the latest C-Class, the number of diesel C-Class vehicles sold climbed from virtually nothing to almost 30 per cent of total sales. They are now believed to have dropped back to a little more than 10 per cent.
BMW product and market planning manager Toni Andreevski says he expects a similar drift away from diesel now BMW has two turbocharged four-cylinder petrol engines that are more powerful and use less than 7.0L/100km. ''The performance improvement from the direct-injection turbo engines might sway more people back to the petrol,'' he says. He says the previous 3-Series model saw more than a third of buyers opting for a diesel engine. But despite the introduction of a new, cheaper diesel model in the latest generation, Andreevski expects a decline. In response to the trend, the company has dropped its most expensive diesel model, the 330d. It has also dropped the 123d twin-turbo diesel model from the 1-Series range. One of the key attractions of the more economical turbo-petrol engines is that luxury car buyers pay less for any options they want on their car because the luxury car tax doesn't apply.

Does this mean ford has got it right with ecoboost for the falcon and not going the diesel route?

[dylancox]

SX Territory should have been diesel from the start. Imagine how much more sales they could have made. Ford misses the bus... again.

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by dylancox

SX Territory should have been diesel from the start. Imagine how much more sales they could have made. Ford misses the bus... again.

But has Ford just caught the lastest ship leaving the port with regards to EB4 in Falcon??? This is the real question!!

[dylancox]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

But has Ford just caught the lastest ship leaving the port with regards to EB4 in Falcon??? This is the real question!!

EB4/Diesel should be an option in Falcon & Territory. Aren't the two baked in the same oven? Territory seems to bring in the private buyers these days, rather than Falcon, but who knows maybe diesel in Falcon will bring a comeback.

[prydey]

small capacity DI turbo petrol engines now offer diesel like low down torque and economy with a much more useable power band.

it is the way forward for mid/large passenger cars.

it would be interesting to know the breakdown of sales by fuel of models that offer both in the car market, not suv/4wd. ie, does diesel focus outsell petrol focus?

also, from what i see around adelaide, diesel can be up to 20cpl dearer than petrol. i understand other capital cities are about on par. diesel doesn't automatically make sense for everyone. if you like it, great, go buy one, but to say it would be the saviour for falcon is speculation.

if falcon was to get diesel, it would get the same donk thats in territory. ecoboost figures are pretty much as good as it anyway. sure the falcon is a bit lighter but the territory petrol is only .5/100km better than petrol falcon so there would only be a similar gain for diesel. not sure diesel would get any sales from govt departments that have a 4cyl only policy though.

i know i'm a minority on this forum, but i believe ford DO know what they are doing.

[.FoMoCo.]

I must say I have to agree with you, prydey, looks like they have done their homework on this one.
The gap between petrol and diesel has definately closed, maybe 10 years ago diesels had a big edge on economy, were much more refined than previous generations of diesels, quieter etc, and were showing real performance potential in cars like the tdi golfs.
I reckon the development of diesels has flattened out a bit...
I'm not sure that a diesel engine in the falcon would be as much of a leap forward as the ecoboost 4s are promising to be. The numbers for power and torque out of these little engines are impressive to day the least! They are even putting them in F150s in the states, for goodness sake!

[prydey]

Originally Posted by .FoMoCo.

Diesel cars in decline:

From drive today...



Does this mean ford has got it right with ecoboost for the falcon and not going the diesel route?

i believe so.

[Franco Cozzo]

There are still more people buying diesel over LPG powered vehicles.

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by Big Damo

There are still more people buying diesel over LPG powered vehicles.

It is not about LPG cars, it is small trubo petrol vs Deisel!!

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

It is not about LPG cars, it is small trubo petrol vs Deisel!!

Which isolates P platers like me, because they can't drive Petrol turbo unless they try play the game at VicRoads, which means going around in circles.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Big Damo

Which isolates P platers like me, because they can't drive Petrol turbo unless they try play the game at VicRoads, which means going around in circles.

in fairness to ford, how many p platers are likely to be buying a $35k new falcon? i doubt they'd be losing too many customers.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by prydey

in fairness to ford, how many p platers are likely to be buying a $35k new falcon? i doubt they'd be losing too many customers.

I spent $26K on my Focus and $18K on my Fiesta which were both new on the lot when I got them. How many P platers do you see getting around in new cars these days? Just about every second P plater has a new car I reckon. Plus generally Gen Y if they can't afford something they finance it for the next 800 years anyways.

Not only that, but have a trawl through the ecoboost thread, you've got a lot of people there saying they won't buy it because its a 4 cylinder engine, I mentioned it to my old man and right away he goes I remember the Starfire Commodore and how much it was a piece of crap. So it hasn't even been released and it has negative vibe about it already with some people. They should have marketed it as "Ecoboost" and not mention anything about 4 cylinders.

I don't see diesel going anywhere, just because BMW and Mercedes say something doesn't mean everyone else will follow suit, I don't see heavy equipment moving away from diesel any time soon, so there will always be diesel development.

I do like the idea of small petrol turbo, but the laws have to change, insurance would be through the roof for us youngin's too.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Big Damo

There are still more people buying diesel over LPG powered vehicles.

there are more people buying petrol than diesel too

[TMC]

Originally Posted by Big Damo

There are still more people buying diesel over LPG powered vehicles.

How many LPG cars are there on the market vs diesel? That's like saying that my electronic lion deterrent device works because I haven't been mauled by a lion in Australia.

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by .FoMoCo.

Does this mean ford has got it right with ecoboost for the falcon and not going the diesel route?

Did Ford get it wrong with the introduction of a diesel engine for the Territory? 70% of Territory sales are diesel. You tell me. Ford got it wrong with not releasing the Territory oil burner in Falcon.

The article is skewed as it primarily focuses on two manufacturers, and one each model. Search elsewhere and you find articles contradicting Drivel's article.

I for one don't accept the premise that diesel demand is indecline. Just take a look at what BMW Motorsport division are releasing.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by F6 Concorde

Did Ford get it wrong with the introduction of a diesel engine for the Territory? 70% of Territory sales are diesel. You tell me. Ford got it wrong with not releasing the Territory oil burner in Falcon.

The article is skewed as it primarily focuses on two manufacturers, and one each model. Search elsewhere and you find articles contradicting Drivel's article.

I for one don't accept the premise that diesel demand is indecline. Just take a look at what BMW Motorsport division are releasing.

you are comparing different segments. diesel in suv/4wd has always been popular. diesel in passenger cars, especially larger ones, is hardly popular at all.

[jpd80]

There is a flaw in the OP article's argument and I can prove it, thanks to Russell's Technical Resources Data.


The argument that diesel sales in cars are falling is premised on diesel car sales only
and not what the total car sales volume is for the year. More cars were sold in 2010
as compared to last year, therefore sales of diesels fell ever so slightly as viewed in the first chart:

If anything, diesel and hybrid car sales numbers remained fairly solid
Diesel sales fell about 1,000,
Hybrid sales fell about 700
LPG sales falling about 3,000
petrol sales fell around 28,000




In real terms, the percentage of diesel cars is has risen to 8% last year as evidenced by the second chart:





Also, ten times as many diesel cars are sold than LPG cars, i think the fact that Ford has EcoLPI
is blinding them to the possibilities with a diesel Falcon and Ute, not everyone wants LPG...

[1TUFFUTE]

it also shows despite the market share falls...petrol is still way more popular then diesel. Diesel is not growing anymore and will more then likely go up and down slightly year to year. Turbo petrols is were its at

[GT 160]

There was an article in Motor or Wheels awhile ago with one of Mercedes top engineers and he said diesels are already increasingly harder to bring under ever tightning emission standards.

He said ultimately r&d costs over the next 10 years will outweigh the benefits in alot of segments.

[Rodge]

Originally Posted by jpd80

There is a flaw in the OP article's argument and I can prove it, thanks to Russell's Technical Resources Data.


The argument that diesel sales in cars are falling is premised on diesel car sales only
and not what the total car sales volume is for the year. More cars were sold in 2010
as compared to last year, therefore sales of diesels fell ever so slightly as viewed in the first chart:

If anything, diesel and hybrid car sales numbers remained fairly solid
Diesel sales fell about 1,000,
Hybrid sales fell about 700
LPG sales falling about 3,000
petrol sales fell around 28,000

image


In real terms, the percentage of diesel cars is has risen to 8% last year as evidenced by the second chart:


image


Also, ten times as many diesel cars are sold than LPG cars, i think the fact that Ford has EcoLPI
is blinding them to the possibilities with a diesel Falcon and Ute, not everyone wants LPG...

Well said. Plenty of mid size diesel cars are now into the 5's in terms of litres per 100 km's with heaps of readily available torque making them a pleasure to drive. Comparing apples with apples Mondeo Ecoboost 8.0 litres per 100 km's uses 43% more fuel than its diesel powered sibling at 5.6 litres per 100 km's and the diesel has more torque. Add in the fact that the Ecoboost requires premium fuel and as long as you use your vehicle on the open road a fair bit to burn out the diesel particulate filter, the diesel choice is a no brainer.

[prydey]

i wonder what the breakdown is in sales between petrol and diesel mondeo. logic doesn't always enter into car buying and perception.

with sales of diesel cars increasing, and sales of large passenger cars on the slide and sales of suv/4wd on the increase, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to work out that the increase isn't due to diesel in large sedans.

IF diesel was available in large sedans, you could argue that it would have the same popularity, but personally, its all speculation. as far as ford is concerned, they don't have the funds to 'test' the market, and its obvious ford US want to push their ecoboost engines.

it just gets frustrating when a handful of members use it as another opportunity to stick the boots into ford as though they have some limitless money tree out the back. most of the time the comments are said with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.

[babyf6]

a diesel falcon ute would make my day.
Though it is obvious that diesel is in decline, it will swing back, its a cycle. In my opinion

[SteveJH]

Originally Posted by babyf6

Though it is obvious that diesel is in decline, it will swing back, its a cycle. In my opinion

For total sales over the year diesel vehicle sales was the only fuel type to actually show an *increase* rather then decrease.

How can you say Diesel is in decline?

[saam]

I stayed in america for 3 weeks and didnt see one single person driving on LPG. Diesel or petrol were the norm

In europe most of the people i came into contact with were all on small diesel engines as petrol cost more at the servo

Here in australia we should be going the LPG route becasue of our unlimited supply. But our government is too greedy

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by saam

I stayed in america for 3 weeks and didnt see one single person driving on LPG. Diesel or petrol were the norm

In europe most of the people i came into contact with were all on small diesel engines as petrol cost more at the servo

Here in australia we should be going the LPG route becasue of our unlimited supply. But our government is too greedy

USA fuel is roughly 70 cents per litre,
Australia it's roughly $1.40/litre
Europe it way over $2.00/ litre

Why would a yank worry about fuel economy when fuel is a third of the price Euro drivers pay..

Aussies are somewhere in the middle, diesel is useful in heavy vehicles and IMO, that's why diesel
in large car would work a treat because it is seen as clean and green to a lot of people.

[Kryton]

Considering the article only takes into account Merc and BMW, which realistically the majority of the population of car buyers cant afford, i cant really see how ALL diesel cars are in ecline.

It would be more accurate to say that due to how great the petrol model is that they have on offer, they are finding a new market for petrol engines.

[Bossxr8]

The death of diesels in passenger cars is inevitable anyway, it will eventually be replaced by dieso-otto engines that are basically petrol engines that work like diesels, by having compression ignition at certain points in the rev range, where it is most effiecient.

Mercedes and GM are well advanced with this and others are working on it. Give it a couple of years and i'd say Mercedes will have it in production.

Offers the best of both worlds, the revable characteristics of a petrol with economy of a diesel.

[Pedro]

I think the biggest factor in stagnating diesel sales is the rise in cost of diesel fuel. Years ago, diesel was always about 30% cheaper than petrol ... that's not the case today.

[Nic85]

The big difference between turbo diesel cars and turbo petrol cars, is fuel usage in the real world. Diesel cars will pretty well always be economical, where as turbo petrol will drink like a fish when you push them a bit. The reviews I've read of the Euro turbo petrol cars all say the same - the claimed fuel economy figure is like Big Foot; a myth.

Take the Territory as a prime example. Talk to a petrol Territory owner, ATMO or turbo, and you'll find average fuel usage is probably 14L/100km+, that's with an ADR figure of 10. something. Then talk to the diesel owners. You'll find most will be well under 10L/100km.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Nic85

The big difference between turbo diesel cars and turbo petrol cars, is fuel usage in the real world. Diesel cars will pretty well always be economical, where as turbo petrol will drink like a fish when you push them a bit. The reviews I've read of the Euro turbo petrol cars all say the same - the claimed fuel economy figure is like Big Foot; a myth.

Take the Territory as a prime example. Talk to a petrol Territory owner, ATMO or turbo, and you'll find average fuel usage is probably 14L/100km+, that's with an ADR figure of 10. something. Then talk to the diesel owners. You'll find most will be well under 10L/100km.

The Ecoboost strategy is designed to ape the diesel's torque curve and fuel economy,
that's why it doesn't produce as much power as other High Perf. Euro Turbo petrol engines.
We will get the opportunity to see some real world economy comparisons between
the 4.0 I-6 and the 2.0 Ecoboost, Ford knows this and knows that can't do smoke and mirrors.
The savings are there to be had, just as the performance is there as well and as you said,
it depends how people want to drive and what they really want..

I believe there's a case for Ecoboost AND V6 Diesel but unlike Ford I have no data...
Remembering that Tom Gorman felt there was no business case for diesel Territory....