Ford cutting EV production

[Syndrome]

Another example of companies overestimating demand for EVs.

https://www.reuters.com/breakingview...ay-2023-10-26/

Kypez in 3 - 2 - 1

[Syndrome]

https://techcrunch.com/2023/10/26/fo...s-with-demand/

[jpd80]

Will be interesting to see how many Mach E sales Ford gets in Australia versus Tesla Y sales…
I don’t think there’s any supply pressure on Mach E, America and UK have gone off the boil……

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Will be interesting to see how many Mach E sales Ford gets in Australia versus Tesla Y sales…
I don’t think there’s any supply pressure on Mach E, America and UK have gone off the boil……

It's $15K more than the Model Y, it's a hard sell being priced that much over the established market leader when you have no credibility in that segment.

Ford EV is like Chinese ICE - it's a new field for them and they have limited experience and are saddled with huge capital investment in existing tooling and manufacturing methods.

Tesla is at the advantage here.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

It's $15K more than the Model Y, it's a hard sell being priced that much over the established market leader when you have no credibility in that segment.

Ford EV is like Chinese ICE - it's a new field for them and they have limited experience and are saddled with huge capital investment in existing tooling and manufacturing methods.

Tesla is at the advantage here.

Yeah I know and that’s why I’m saying it will be interesting to see how many sales they get.

You’d really have to want a Mach E to spend that much more over a Y but some are like that…..

This car could come and go very quickly if people ignore it, I bet they get dumped into internal fleet
and then sold off as low km “demos”.

[kypez]

I guess we'll just ignore that Ford had a production stop due to the fire issue (F150). They needed to stop to identify if it was a design flaw or a manufacturing issue (turned out to be the latter). But that would've spooked buyers. And the price creep happening on the car.

BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY, the whole market is struggling in the US with the economy in the toilet.

Just goes to show how far ahead Tesla are with their designs to make EVs so profitable. Ford need to change their approach to EVs. Toyota has recognised that and are changing their method to build their cars.

All the learnings that Tesla went through years ago. You can't build an EV profitably using old manufacturing techniques.

Mach E is going to be smoked in Australia. I love the Mach E (and as someone who buys EVs, I'd be their target market) and the GT seats are awesome but no way would I buy one, no matter how big a Ford fan I am, for $15k+ over a Model Y. Rear seat room is much less and the boot space is also compromised. Not paying a premium for a smaller car with less range, performance and a mechanical steering adjustment!

[ozpacman]

Originally Posted by kypez

Just goes to show how far ahead Tesla are with their designs to make EVs so profitable.

Umm - pardon?

https://fortune.com/2023/10/19/tesla...not-tech-firm/

[kypez]

Originally Posted by ozpacman

Umm - pardon?



https://fortune.com/2023/10/19/tesla...not-tech-firm/

Wow. The level of your lack of intelligence by quoting that article just doesn't even warrant a response!

Go look up the profitability per car vs market valuations.

[kevino]

Another news Corp article on this quoted Farley saying people are not prepared to pay a premium for ev and are buying petrol and diesel at lower prices

Same here

Unless you want to buy Chinese takeaway

[ivorya]

Ford has just recently purchased a number Giga Presses for their production EV's.

With the Cutting, i wonder if this is just a cycling of new tooling to come online for efficiencys.

[jpd80]

A couple of months back, Ford basically doubled production of Mach E right as early adopters walked away from it,
so total inventory suddenly ballooned to 20,000 vehicles. Ford then cut production back to previous level but
they still have a ton of stock with US dealers - roughly 12,000 unsold vehicles that are starting to be discounted.

So this is why I wonder about that $85,000 entry price point for a Basic Mach E, that converts to about US$60,000
That same model in the USA as a LHD model is priced at US$42,000, so freight and additional for RHD but still…..

[ozpacman]

Oh dear Kypez. Please forgive me for having the audacity to throw in my two bob's worth, whilst ignoring the possible presence of your your most wondrous self.

I really shouldn't have wagged Kindy...

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by ozpacman

Oh dear Kypez. Please forgive me for having the audacity to throw in my two bob's worth, whilst ignoring the possible presence of your your most wondrous self.

I really shouldn't have wagged Kindy...

Year to date, Tesla’s pretax profit sits at close to $13.2 billion but absolutely true that
Tesla’ s Q3 result was $4.1 billion, down 22% from the $5.7 billion earned in Q3 2022.

And on the strength of that “bad result” Tesla’s stock price has retreated to $200 which
means that Musk’s own portfolio has taken a huge dump but only if he sells….

In comparison, Ford earned a mere $1.2 billion pretax profit in the same period
and I’d be willing to bet that Tesla’s profit is as big as GM and Ford combined….

https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesl...3-Update-3.pdf

[kypez]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Year to date, Tesla’s pretax profit sits at close to $13.2 billion but absolutely true that

Tesla’ s Q3 result was $4.1 billion, down 22% from the $5.7 billion earned in Q3 2022.



And on the strength of that “bad result” Tesla’s stock price has retreated to $200 which

means that Musk’s own portfolio has taken a huge dump but only if he sells….



In comparison, Ford earned a mere $1.2 billion pretax profit in the same period

and I’d be willing to bet that Tesla’s profit is as big as GM and Ford combined….



https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesl...3-Update-3.pdf

Thank you

[Rallye Sport]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

Another example of companies overestimating demand for EVs.

https://www.reuters.com/breakingview...ay-2023-10-26/

Kypez in 3 - 2 - 1

Theres a whole new section for this kind of thing.

https://fordforums.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=418

Nonsensical meme in 3 - 2 - 1

[jpd80]

Ford has a big issue now, it was going in boots ‘n all with massive BEV plans but now many of the
early adopters have moved on with little interest from buyers regarding its existing BEV Lightning,
Mach E or e Transit. It’s really thrown a huge red flag to the brass, they don’t know what to do…..

Europe and America are seeing Model E sales at around 5,000/month for each while Tesla Y sales
continually dwarf those numbers. As we discussed earlier Mach E prices for Australia are simply
uncompetitive with Tesla Y which is $15,000 less and more readily available.

So it seems like to me that Mach E sales in our market will be way less, like in the hundreds
not the thousands that some had hoped for. When will Ford start listening to its customers.

A big problem with Ford’s electrification plans is that they keep changing them every couple of years,
some might say that’s prudent to keep things on course but it also shows a distinct lack of vision and
persistence. Back in 2018, then CEO Jim Hackett partnered with VW to access is MEB electric toolkit,
agreeing to develop at least two vehicles at Cologne with expansion to North America.

Fast forward to 2022 and the plans change to limiting the VW based vehicles to just two European models
and then progressively, Ford starts replacing the VW sourced batteries and electrical components with
it’s own equipment. I think Ford is really struggling with making anything like an affordable BEV, especially
if it’s presenting Mach E as a replacement for its larger compact SUVs like Edge/Endura.

In North America, Ford continued to tinker with the design of its Gen 2 mid sized BEV SUVs, going from
the desirable boxy three row SUVS to a low sleek three row crossover in the name of aero efficiency
and extending battery range. Guess what, the research clinics hated it, so now has these are locked in
for America knowing that few customers want them….insane.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Ford has a biggie now, it was going in boots n all with massive BEV plans but now many of the
early adopters have moved on with little interest from buyers regarding buying the BEV Lightning,
Mach E or e Transit.

Europe and America are seeing Model E sales at around 5,000/month for each while Tesla Y sales
continually dwarf those numbers. As we discussed earlier Mach E prices for Australia are simply
uncompetitive with Tesla Y which is $15,000 less and more readily available.

So it seems like to me that Mach E sales in our market will be way less, like in the hundreds
not the thousands that some had hoped for. When will Ford start listening to its customers.

I'm on a few EV pages and fly the Ford flag as best as possible. Most common comment is, I'm not going to pay that much for a Ford. My sister in Norway was thinking of selling her Model 3 for a Mach E till pricing came out. Heck, I was too till local pricing came out.

Ford missed the early adopters that paid a premium for EVs. They have to go back to their roots, make an EV cost effective to build and sold for a good price. They need to innovate again. Only the Chinese can build using traditional methods for a cheap price.

Otherwise they'll continue to be an Also Ran in the EV space.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by kypez

I'm on a few EV pages and fly the Ford flag as best as possible. Most common comment is, I'm not going to pay that much for a Ford. My sister in Norway was thinking of selling her Model 3 for a Mach E till pricing came out. Heck, I was too till local pricing came out.

Ford missed the early adopters that paid a premium for EVs. They have to go back to their roots, make an EV cost effective to build and sold for a good price. They need to innovate again. Only the Chinese can build using traditional methods for a cheap price.

Otherwise they'll continue to be an Also Ran in the EV space.

The frustrating part is the Ford brass know better but have the split personality
where they want mass rollout of BEVs but also expect buyer to pay premium prices.

A huge dose of reality is arriving soon, Ford is not Tesla and cannot command
prices like them, the European BEV Explorer is lining up to be a white elephant
of epic proportions.

I don’t want to be down on Ford but when it comes to electric vehicles, they’re all
over the place and don’t know or don’t care about the intended customers wants and needs.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by jpd80

The frustrating part is the Ford brass know better but have the split personality

where they want mass rollout of BEVs but also expect buyer to pay premium prices.



A huge dose of reality is arriving soon, Ford is not Tesla and cannot command

prices like them, the European BEV Explorer is lining up to be a white elephant

of epic proportions.



I don’t want to be down on Ford but when it comes to electric vehicles, they’re all

over the place and don’t know or don’t care about the intended customers wants and needs.

Thing is, Tesla is the cheapest non Chinese brand out there. For the kit you get, you can't go past them. If Ford tried to be more like Tesla price wise it would be a step in the right direction.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by kypez

Thing is, Tesla is the cheapest non Chinese brand out there. For the kit you get, you can't go past them. If Ford tried to be more like Tesla price wise it would be a step in the right direction.

We’ll see, this is where Ford is taking the p1ss on prices, they literally just convert the UK price to Aussie dollars
but if you go to US domestic prices Ford is super competitive with Tesla Y and actually USD$1,000 less.

Model Y RWD…………………...USD$43,990
Mach E Select RWD………….USD$42,995

When the more esearch oriented folks go chasing down figures like this,
it kind shows how Ford punished RHD customers for all the changes required.

Ford has to make a decision here, does it want to seriously go after those customers
or is this just a token gesture to say hey we tried and no one wanted our BEVs?
To me it shows us exactly the kind of take it or leave it disconnect ford has with customers

Anyone wanting a Mach E needs to tell their dealer to get the message back to Ford
that customers know they’re trying to rip them off and to go the F away.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Guess what, the research clinics hated it, so now has these are locked in
for America knowing that few customers want them….insane.

Sounds much like AU as it headed into launch.

[Sprintey]

Ford seem to be in a world of hurt with their EV rollout at present, and Tesla show how to do it properly. Is it the case that if the legacy autos get it wrong, they are kaput and we see the creative destruction of a phase shift in technology?

I tend to follow the metals and mining of components more than the automakers plans - EV takeup is increasing, but are we seeing it go to mainly completely different and new-to-us brands?

[Sprintey]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6jZRsc32x0

Dave takes it on - with a view of what Ford has just done, what will happen, and some solid real estate tips learned through misfortune to illustrate the path automakers have taken..

Wow. Legacy ICE automakers are in a world of trouble. A huge lesson in capitalism is happening right now.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Ford seem to be in a world of hurt with their EV rollout at present, and Tesla show how to do it properly. Is it the case that if the legacy autos get it wrong, they are kaput and we see the creative destruction of a phase shift in technology?



I tend to follow the metals and mining of components more than the automakers plans - EV takeup is increasing, but are we seeing it go to mainly completely different and new-to-us brands?

Problem for Ford and many other legacies is that they're batting for both sides. They have ICE platforms to build and are trying to build EV ones as well. Just hemorrhaging money.

Everyone rubbished Elon pushing for Robots and designs that required little people assembly. "Why complicate it with machines when you can solve the issues with a few people". Well, looking at how Ford and others are being bent over the barrel by the UAW, guess who made the right bet. UAW are no doubt adding to the cost of cars. And Ford are trying to build EVs like they built ICE cars. Just a mess.

Poor design language
Legacy approach
UAW
Dealer Network

All this results in Ford getting smashed on every EV sold.

[simon varley]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Ford seem to be in a world of hurt with their EV rollout at present, and Tesla show how to do it properly.

Tesla spent all their startup money years ago. They only started to make a profit in 2020 so 17 years after they started. All the other OEMs are in catch up and spending big to set up their lines, so the headlines aren't really surprising to me. What is disappointing is the back flip. We were gutted in Ford Oz to pay for the US EV development, and now the big bosses want to breathe life back into ICE? Good luck with that when you've just sacked all your engineers, and send the work to Brazil!

[kypez]

Originally Posted by simon varley

Tesla spent all their startup money years ago. They only started to make a profit in 2020 so 17 years after they started. All the other OEMs are in catch up and spending big to set up their lines, so the headlines aren't really surprising to me. What is disappointing is the back flip. We were gutted in Ford Oz to pay for the US EV development, and now the big bosses want to breathe life back into ICE? Good luck with that when you've just sacked all your engineers, and send the work to Brazil!

They also didn't try multiple product lines and electrifying everything. Kept it simple. Roadster based off the Lotus. Then their first in house car, the Model S... Then X... Then 3... And now Y. Nice simple strategy

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by simon varley

Tesla spent all their startup money years ago. They only started to make a profit in 2020 so 17 years after they started. All the other OEMs are in catch up and spending big to set up their lines, so the headlines aren't really surprising to me. What is disappointing is the back flip. We were gutted in Ford Oz to pay for the US EV development, and now the big bosses want to breathe life back into ICE? Good luck with that when you've just sacked all your engineers, and send the work to Brazil!

Tesla also didn’t get cracking until it switched from high priced exclusive vehicle
to making compact 3 and Y, those and selling stock came together at the right time
propelling Tesla to major profitability, averaging 4 to 5 billion dollars profit a quarter.
Intersting that Tesla is less concerned about those emission credits it used to sell although,
I think Stellantis still buys a bunch to stay ahead of the curve….

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Ford seem to be in a world of hurt with their EV rollout at present, and Tesla show how to do it properly. Is it the case that if the legacy autos get it wrong, they are kaput and we see the creative destruction of a phase shift in technology?

Farley seems intent on trying to copy some of Teslas plan or at least copying designs that remind buyer of the X and Y crossovers. I think that’s a mistake, Ford should be following the wants of its buyers like boxy 2-row and 3-Row SUVs but it’s now back to protecting existing ICE vehicle sales like Explorer and Aviator.

BEV Lightning sales are subdued because the thing can’t tow a full trailer for more than about 160 km,
the whole reason people buy F150 is the capability to tow things if required, Lightning is a giant chocolate teapot.
And Ford is building a giant plant to mass produce electric F150s in under four years time, no wonder they’re anxious…

I tend to follow the metals and mining of components more than the automakers plans - EV takeup is increasing, but are we seeing it go to mainly completely different and new-to-us brands?

The minerals boom is going to heat up now that China is trying to control Lithium e fining and the supply of rare earths
I think it’s up to Australia to get into bed with Musk and other US based companies and develop better
Supply of Lithium and rare earth materials to US AND Europe before anyone else jumps in there.

[PooDog]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Farley seems intent on trying to copy some of Teslas plan or at least copying designs that remind buyer of the X and Y crossovers. I think that’s a mistake, Ford should be following the wants of its buyers like boxy 2-row and 3-Row SUVs but it’s now back to protecting existing ICE vehicle sales like Explorer and Aviator.

BEV Lightning sales are subdued because the thing can’t tow a full trailer for more than about 160 km,
the whole reason people buy F150 is the capability to tow things if required, Lightning is a giant chocolate teapot.
And Ford is building a giant plant to mass produce electric F150s in under four years time, no wonder they’re anxious…


The minerals boom is going to heat up now that China is trying to control Lithium e fining and the supply of rare earths
I think it’s up to Australia to get into bed with Musk and other US based companies and develop better
Supply of Lithium and rare earth materials to US AND Europe before anyone else jumps in there.

Do you think Farley must be under a lot of pressure?

Not saying it's all his fault, but there's a lot of not so flash stuff happening under his watch , like the terrible recll costs they're having, the EV cost blow outs ,the EV back flip ,Escape hybrid problems etc ....it all starts at the top ?

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Farley seems intent on trying to copy some of Teslas plan or at least copying designs that remind buyer of the X and Y crossovers. I think that’s a mistake, Ford should be following the wants of its buyers like boxy 2-row and 3-Row SUVs but it’s now back to protecting existing ICE vehicle sales like Explorer and Aviator.

BEV Lightning sales are subdued because the thing can’t tow a full trailer for more than about 160 km,
the whole reason people buy F150 is the capability to tow things if required, Lightning is a giant chocolate teapot.
And Ford is building a giant plant to mass produce electric F150s in under four years time, no wonder they’re anxious…


The minerals boom is going to heat up now that China is trying to control Lithium e fining and the supply of rare earths
I think it’s up to Australia to get into bed with Musk and other US based companies and develop better
Supply of Lithium and rare earth materials to US AND Europe before anyone else jumps in there.

With regard to last paragraph, already happening, certain companies are qualifying for govco grants/loans when included as part of the critical minerals supply chain, further to that these companies are signing off into a western supply chain, ie takeoffs with S Korea, Japanese companies, German ones like Siemens... in coming months Australian critical minerals enterprises will be allowed to qualify for capital from US at NA market rates and legal conditions if I read it right (have a check - I think it was Biden's recent meeting with Albo that included this, check for yourself tho) which is massive. Combined with current prices on these metals, future demand curves and the fact we're already seeing some of them value-add their product in their production plans, it's pretty exciting. The Chinese have that 20 year head start though and have lol enviro OH&S barriers to output. But yeah, this is not financial advice at all, I'm saying this as there is a pretty exciting time ahead for Australia.