[whynot]

I too was interested to read in the troubles that Ford US are having in selling EV. But it is not only Ford having difficulties. Volkswagen in Europe are in serious trouble with their EV sales. GM are “moderating” their plan for new EV models, and even Mercedes has noted that the EV market is 'brutal'.

In one way, the surplus of EV can be viewed as a good thing. It will focus the minds of the car industry to more innovation to reduce the costs of EV production. To the EV fanbois (and I include myself in this grouping), it will be a cautionary note that not everyone shares their love of shiny, new, expensive toys. As a first pass, the “EV early adopters” market is a lot smaller than first thought in this price bracket.

For ICE proponents, there is little comfort in this either. If (at the time of writing) the issues in the Middle East conflagrate into a regional war, the price of liquid fuels will go into the stratosphere. Resulting in a renewed rush of EV sales.

As I have said a number of times before … the transition from one technology to another is often a long, windy, bumpy road. For example, take the now ubiquitous mobile phone. They were first introduced in Australia in 1981. It took 10 years to have 1% penetration into the market. It took a further 30 years for the population usage of mobile phones to reach 50% (noting that sources vary on when this occurred). But still, even 50 years later mobile phone usage is just over 80%. Ditto the conversion of railway from steam engines to diesel. It took about 45 years from the introduction of the first diesel train until the last steam engine in Australia was phased out.

The great news in all of this is that various manufacturers are trying varying approaches; EV, PHEV, ICE and green hydrogen.

The automobile is not dead yet. (If The Greens have their way, we will be living in little communities, walking everywhere, and catching public transport.)