[tweeked]

Originally Posted by russellw

I think we need to start considering the longer term 'new world order' for dealing with COVID19.

What we are currently seeing in Europe is a warning about complacency with the last 30 days seeing case numbers grow from < 40k per day to > 100k per day and the fact that despite only having 9.5% of the global population, they have 15.7% of all cases and 21.4% of all deaths.

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Indeed, the 30 day trend shows Europe, North America and South America all trending upward while Africa is showing a slight upward trend and only Asia is trending downward.

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It would be reasonable to suggest that as they enter winter, the European numbers are only going to worsen and we are largely powerless (short of economic ruin) of containing it at any reasonable level.

It then begs the question I've raised before which is what is the threshold at which society as a whole accepts the consequences of not containing this virus in the absence of a vaccine?

You can argue all day as to whether the CMR is higher for COVID19 than it is for Influenza but that virus is the closest example which we can draw on for 'community acceptance' of the consequences.

It's global mortality is anything between 290-600k based on what type of season the world has and which strains are more prevalent with a 10 year average of 403k and an infection rate that we can now agree is much lower and less volatile than COVID19.

If we extrapolate the 7 months worth of COVID19 data out to a full year then we are looking at somewhere between 80-85M case and 1.5M-1.6M deaths globally or about four times the deaths caused by Influenza so is that an acceptable number to live with?

Before answering, bear in mind that:

1. Unlike Influenza, COVID 19 has a greater impact on the 60+ age group than any other group;
2. Without the current level of precautions globally, it is likely the total case numbers and total deaths will be higher in the future (at least until there is a viable vaccine); and
3. There is still no clarity around what the longer term health affects are even for those who recover, regardless of age.

That is the big question Russ, and the reality is if we as a world try to live more of a "Covid normal" it wont be 1.6 million deaths, more like 10 million at least. I look at it this way, if alien spaceships turned up and they started killing people randomly except managing to get more older than younger, and we had the choice.... To all hide in our houses for 2,3 4 or more years, and lose 1 million at best, economic ruin for many but have our freedom severely curtailed....... Or as a world we fight it and try to live our lives, protect the old and ourselves as best we can, but at the cost of 10 million a year (or more) out of 7 Billion............

That is a war I would say is worth fighting rather than hiding from.