Quote:
Originally Posted by cs123
Russ,
do you have any stats on how "deadly" this virus is 10 months in? Obviously more deadly at the beginning, but wondering what improvements exist in the mortality rate now vs then
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I've ben tracking the global CMR along with a few selected countries and while the numbers differ based on response for the individual countries, the global figure has been the main one to watch.
In April it was 6.67%, in May that had dropped to 6.15%, 4.15% in July; by August it was down to 3.33%; 3.09% at the end of September and it is currently just a fraction under 3%.
I've no idea where it should really be and the various modelling is all guesswork based on no one actually knowing what the unidentified case volumes are.
What I can say is that it will probably be less than the 3% despite some countries clearly under-reporting deaths and while I thought Australia had a pretty good handle on it with the amount of testing we've done (43% equivalence), I think our current 3.293% is too high.
Russia is 1.76% but I suspect they are under-reporting although they have tested the equivalent of 40% population and might be close to accurate if they are reporting correctly.
The USA has tested the equivalent of half their population and is sitting at 2.82% while Andorra has tested the equivalent of almost twice the population and is at 2.877%.